Wechselwirkung Klima-Biosphäre
Die Biosphäre der Erde, vor allem die Vegetation, wird durch das Klima gesteuert. Die Vegetation wiederum beeinflusst das Klima durch zahlreiche biogeophysikalische und biogeochemische Prozesse. So pumpt beispielsweise ein borealer Wald Wasser aus dem Boden und speichert große Mengen an Kohlenstoff in Biomasse und Bodenstreu. Er absorbiert Sonneneinstrahlung an seiner Oberfläche, was insbesondere im Frühjahr einen großen Effekt hat, wenn Schneeflächen verdeckt werden. Langfristig gesehen verändert die Vegetation die Böden, schafft ihre eigene lokale Umgebung und beeinflusst das Klima weit über ihre eigenen Grenzen hinaus.
Wie stark sind die Wechselwirkungen zwischen der terrestrischen Biosphäre und dem Klima, wie etwa die Rückkopplung zwischen dem Kohlenstoffkreislauf und dem Klima (siehe Abbildung 1)? Könnten externe Einflüsse, wie z. B. eine CO2-bedingte Erwärmung oder die Abholzung von Wäldern, zu abrupten Veränderungen in natürlichen Ökosystemen führen, die sich in Niederschlags- und Temperaturveränderungen sowie in deren Extremen widerspiegeln? Um diese Fragen zu beantworten, entwickelt und verwendet unsere Gruppe Modelle unterschiedlicher Komplexität, von einfachen konzeptionellen Modellen bis hin zu hochentwickelten Erdsystemmodellen.
Trotz der fortschreitenden Abholzung der Wälder nimmt der Boden heute etwa 30 % der anthropogenen CO2-Emissionen auf. Diese enorme Leistung der Landbiosphäre für die Menschheit trägt zur Verlangsamung der globalen Erwärmung bei, aber die Kapazität des Bodens zur Aufnahme fossiler CO2-Emissionen ist begrenzt. Wenn keine fossilen Brennstoffe mehr emittiert werden, wird das Land immer noch etwas Kohlenstoff aufnehmen, aber in einem viel geringeren Ausmaß. Um das künftige Klima zu verstehen und zu prognostizieren, ist es sehr wichtig zu wissen, wie genau die Landbiosphäre auf Klima- und CO2-Veränderungen auf diesen Zeitskalen reagiert.
Unsere Forschung
Die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima und Biosphäre sind ein umfangreiches Forschungsgebiet mit faszinierenden Beispielen aus der Vergangenheit (grüne Sahara, glaziale Zyklen), der Gegenwart (CO2-Düngung des Landes) und der Zukunft (Kohlenstoff-Klima-Rückkopplung). Unter den vielen Forschungsmöglichkeiten liegt der Schwerpunkt unserer Gruppe auf Prozessen, die das Klima auf Zeitskalen von Jahrzehnten und Jahrhunderten beeinflussen. Insbesondere die Ökosysteme in den hohen Breitengraden reagieren sehr empfindlich auf die stattfindenden Klimaänderungen und haben ein erhebliches Potenzial, das Klima durch veränderte CO2- und CH4-Flüsse zu beeinflussen. Physikalische Rückkopplungen zwischen der Hydrologie der Landoberfläche und dem Klima könnten die atmosphärischen und ozeanischen Zirkulationen über die Grenzen der Arktis hinaus erheblich verändern. Wie sieht die Zukunft der Arktis aus, wird sie trockener oder feuchter sein, und wie wirkt sie sich auf das globale Klima aus?
Permafrost und Kohlenstoffdynamik
Ökosysteme in den hohen Breiten dienten in den letzten Jahrtausenden als langsame, aber dauerhafte Kohlenstoffsenke und nehmen auch heute noch Kohlenstoff auf (z. B. Bruhwiler et al., 2021). Ein einzigartiges Merkmal dieser Region ist das Vorhandensein von dauerhaft gefrorenen Böden, die erhebliche Mengen an Kohlenstoff, der sich während der glazialen Zyklen angesammelt hat, aber auch Wasser in Form von Bodeneis enthalten. Die Arktis erwärmt sich doppelt so schnell wie die durchschnittliche Erwärmungsrate des gesamten Planeten. Was wird in Zukunft mit dem gefrorenen Kohlenstoff geschehen, und sind die Veränderungen des Permafrosts und des Kohlenstoffs unumkehrbar?
Der jüngste Sachstandsbericht des IPCC schätzt die Freisetzung aus Permafrostregionen auf 18 PgC (Unsicherheitsbereich 3,1-41 PgC) pro einen Grad globaler Temperaturerhöhung bis zum Jahr 2100. Die von unserer Gruppe durchgeführten Simulationen liegen innerhalb dieses Unsicherheitsbereichs. Wie viel ist das im Vergleich zu den Emissionen aus fossilen Brennstoffen? Die Kohlenstoffemissionen, die erforderlich sind, um die globale Temperatur im MPI-Erdsystemmodell um 1 °C zu erhöhen, liegen bei etwa 600 PgC (MacDougal et al., 2020). Zusätzliche CO2-Emissionen durch das Auftauen von Permafrostböden verstärken den Klimawandel um 2-10 % (Kleinen und Brovkin, 2018), was nicht unerheblich ist. Es kann jedoch nicht zu einem „Runaway“-Effekt führen, bei dem sich die Erwärmung des Klimas verstärkt und schließlich zur Verdunstung des gesamten flüssigen Wassers auf dem Planeten führt, ähnlich wie bei dem Klima auf der Venus. Für das Szenario RCP8.5 mit sehr hohen Emissionen wird ein stärkeres Tauwetter bis zum Jahr 2300 erwartet (siehe Abbildung 2).
Wechselwirkungen zwischen Prozessen an der Landoberfläche und dem Klima könnten zu dem Phänomen der mehrfachen Gleichgewichtszustände führen. Ein berühmtes Beispiel ist die Rückkopplung zwischen der atmosphärischen Zirkulation und der Vegetationsbedeckung in Nordafrika, die die erhebliche Begrünung der Sahara im mittleren Holozän erklären könnte. Diverse Studien deuten darauf hin, dass derzeit in Nordafrika sowohl der Wüsten- als auch der Grünzustand potenziell stabil sind und der Übergang zwischen ihnen ziemlich abrupt sein könnte (Link zu Martins Seite). Bei Permafrostböden könnten die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Bodentemperatur, Wasser und organischem Kohlenstoff zu zwei verschiedenen Zuständen führen: trockener, organisch karger, wärmerer Boden und feuchter, organisch reichhaltiger, kälterer Boden. Der Unterschied zwischen diesen beiden Zuständen könnte regional sehr groß sein (siehe Abbildung 3).
Ein weiteres Beispiel für alternative stationäre Zustände stammt aus der Analyse von Fernerkundungsdaten (Abis und Brovkin, Biogeosciences, 2017). Als wir den Zusammenhang zwischen der beobachteten Verteilung der Baumbedeckung in borealen Regionen und der mittleren jährlichen Niederschlagsmenge, der Mindesttemperatur, der Permafrostverteilung, der Bodenfeuchtigkeit, der Häufigkeit von Waldbränden und der Bodentextur untersucht haben, fanden wir Gebiete mit potenziell alternativen Baumbedeckungszuständen (Wald, gemischt, baumlos) unter denselben Umweltbedingungen. Diese Gebiete machen zwar nur einen kleinen Teil der borealen Fläche aus (ca. 5 %), entsprechen aber möglichen Übergangszonen mit einer geringeren Widerstandsfähigkeit gegenüber Störungen (siehe Abbildung 4).
(de Vrese und Brovkin, 2021, DOI, CC BY 4.0)
Schließen der Skalierungslücke zwischen feinskaligen Prozessen und Erdsystemmodellen in der Arktis
Die arktische Landschaft besteht aus einer Mischung aus offenen Gewässern, Feuchtgebieten, Wald und Tundra. Aktuelle Erdsystemmodelle haben eine zu grobe räumliche Auflösung (ca. 100 km), um Prozesse auf einer Feinskala von wenigen Metern zu erfassen. Wie können wir mit dieser extremen Heterogenität der Landoberfläche umgehen? Um die Skalierungslücke zu schließen, entwickelt unsere Gruppe einen Upscaling-Ansatz, der Mikro-, Meso- und Makroskalen miteinander verbindet (siehe Abbildung 5). Wir erhöhen die Auflösung unseres Landoberflächenmodells ICON-Land/JSBACH bis auf wenige Kilometer und wollen es im Rahmen des kürzlich vom Europäischen Forschungsrat finanzierten Synergieprojekts Q-ARCTIC auf der panarktischen Skala betreiben. Wir arbeiten dabei mit Forschungsgruppen zusammen, die sich mit der Fernerkundung der Umgebung und der Vegetation in der Arktis (b.geos) sowie mit Beobachtungen auf lokaler Ebene und regionalen Inversionen der Treibhausgasflüsse (MPI-BGC) beschäftigen.
Prozesse auf einer feinen Skala sind in Modellen mit gröberer Auflösung stark parametrisiert. Betrachten wir beispielsweise sehr kleine Gewässer oder Teiche, so tragen sie unverhältnismäßig stark zu den arktischen Methanemissionen bei. Die Methankonzentrationen in Teichen schwanken stark, was ein prozessbasiertes Verständnis der Variabilität erfordert. Zu diesem Zweck kategorisierten Rehder et al. (2021) polygonale Tundra-Teiche im Lena-Flussdelta in drei geomorphologische Typen mit deutlichen Unterschieden bei den Antriebsfaktoren auf die Methankonzentrationen: Teiche mit polygonalem Zentrum, Teiche mit Eiskante und größere zusammenhängende polygonale Teiche (Abbildung 6, links und Mitte). Sie fanden heraus, dass die Methankonzentrationen negativ mit der Größe des Teiches korrelieren: je kleiner der Teich, desto höher die Methankonzentrationen an der Oberfläche (Abbildung 6, rechts). Außerdem konnte kein einziger Antriebsfaktor (wie Windgeschwindigkeit, Wassertemperatur oder Wassertiefe) die Variabilität über alle Teichtypen hinweg erklären, was darauf hindeutet, dass komplexere Upscaling-Methoden wie die prozessbasierte Modellierung erforderlich sind.
Modellierung von Feuchtgebieten und des Methankreislaufs
Methan ist ein starkes Treibhausgas, das unter anaeroben Bedingungen, insbesondere in überschwemmten Böden (Feuchtgebieten), entsteht. Obwohl die Rückkopplung zwischen Klima und Methan nicht so stark ist wie die zwischen CO2 und Temperatur, führen steigende CO2-Konzentrationen und Veränderungen in der Oberflächenhydrologie in Zukunftsszenarien zu einem erheblichen Anstieg der Emissionen aus Feuchtgebieten in die Atmosphäre in . Diese Veränderungen werden in den aktuellen Zukunftsprojektionen unterschätzt (siehe Abbildung 7). Natürliche Methanquellen werden auch in den Klimastabilisierungsszenarien wichtig, in denen der globale Temperaturanstieg im Vergleich zur vorindustriellen Zeit unter einem bestimmten Schwellenwert wie 1,5 oder 2°C gehalten wird.
Könnte der arktische Schelf eine Quelle für große Methanfreisetzungen werden?
Kurz gesagt: Das ist sehr unwahrscheinlich, aber wir können es nicht völlig ausschließen. Unsere Gruppe ist an einem gemeinsamen Projekt mit den Gruppen der marinen Biogeochemie beteiligt, das sich mit der möglichen Freisetzung von Methan durch das Auftauen des unterseeischen Permafrostbodens befasst.
Während der Eiszeiten war der flache arktische Schelf den eisigen Temperaturen ausgesetzt, wodurch sich in kurzen, aber produktiven Sommern organisches Material ansammelte. Nach dem Abschmelzen der Eisschilde wurde das Schelf überflutet, und die gefrorenen Sedimente tauen nun aufgrund des geothermischen Wärmeflusses langsam von oben, aber auch von unten auf. In Erwärmungsszenarien erwärmt sich der Meeresboden und das Eis in den Sedimenten schmilzt, so dass Mikroben die zuvor gefrorenen organischen Stoffe zersetzen können. Dieser Prozess führt zu einer In-situ-Produktion von Methan, von dem ein Teil von methanfressenden Mikroben in den Sedimenten abgebaut werden könnte, während ein anderer Teil in die Atmosphäre entweichen kann. Je stärker die Erwärmung ist, desto mehr Eis schmilzt in den Sedimenten (siehe Abbildung 8). Dieser Prozess verläuft sehr langsam, aber unter bestimmten Szenarien könnten die Methanemissionen des Schelfs bis zum Jahr 2300 höher sein als die Methanemissionen der borealen Feuchtgebiete (hierzu sind Publikationen in Arbeit).
Gruppenmitglieder und Publikationen
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- Bouttes, N., Kwiatkowski, L., Berger, M., Brovkin, V. & Munhoven, G. (2024). Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO_3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 6513-6528. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Bustamante, M., Roy, J., Ospina, D., Achakulwisut, P., Aggarwal, A., Bastos, A., Broadgate, W., Canadell, J., Carr, E., Chen, D., Cleugh, H., Ebi, K., Edwards, C., Farbotko, C., Fernández-Martínez, M., Frölicher, T., Fuss, S., Geden, O., Gruber, N., Harrington, L., Hauck, J., Hausfather, Z., Hebden, S., Hebinck, A., Huq, S., Huss, M., Jamero, M., Juhola, S., Kumarasinghe, N., Lwasa, S., Mallick, B., Martin, M., McGreevy, S., Mirazo, P., Mukherji, A., Muttitt, G., Nemet, G., Obura, D., Okereke, C., Oliver, T., Orlove, B., Ouedraogo, N., Patra, P., Pelling, M., Pereira, L., Persson, Å., Pongratz, J., Prakash, A., Rammig, A., Raymond, C., Redman, A., Reveco, C., Rockström, J., Rodrigues, R., Rounce, D., Schipper, E., Schlosser, P., Selomane, O., Semieniuk, G., Shin, Y.-J., Siddiqui, T., Singh, V., Sioen, G., Sokona, Y., Stammer, D., Steinert, N., Suk, S., Sutton, R., Thalheimer, L., Thompson, V., Trencher, G., Van Der Geest, K., Werners, S., Wübbelmann, T., Wunderling, N., Yin, J., Zickfeld, K. & Zscheischler, J. (2024). Ten new insights in climate science 2023. Global Sustainability, 7: e19. doi:10.1017/sus.2023.25 [publisher-version]
- Creel, R., Miessner, F., Wilkenskjeld, S., Austermann, J. & Overduin, P. (2024). Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost. Nature Communications, 15: 3232. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45906-8 [publisher-version]
- de Hertog, S., Lopez-Fabara, C., van der Ent, R., Keune, J., Miralles, D., Portmann, R., Schemm, S., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Luo, F., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S. & Thiery, W. (2024). Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 265-291. doi:10.5194/esd-15-265-2024 [publisher-version]
- de Vrese, P., Stacke, T., Gayler, V. & Brovkin, V. (2024). Permafrost cloud feedback may amplify climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2024GL109034. doi:10.1029/2024GL109034 [publisher-version]
- Dorgeist, L., Schwingshackl, C., Bultan, S. & Pongratz, J. (2024). A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Nature Communications, 15: 7426. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51126-x [publisher-version][research-data][supplementary-material][any-fulltext][supplementary-material][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
- Forster, P., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Hall, B., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M., Rogelj, J., von Schuckmann, K., Trewin, B., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Betts, R., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J., Buontempo, C., Burgess, S., Cagnazzo, C., Cheng, L., Friedlingstein, P., Gettelman, A., Gütschow, J., Ishii, M., Jenkins, S., Lan, X., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R., Krummel, P., Minx, J., Myhre, G., Naik, V., Peters, G., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S., Szopa, S., Thorne, P., Kovilakam, M., Majamäki, E., Jalkanen, J.-P., van Marle, M., Hoesly, R., Rohde, R., Schumacher, D., van der Werf, G., Vose, R., Zickfeld, K., Zhang, X., Masson-Delmotte, V. & Zhai, P. (2024). Indicators of global climate change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data, 16, 2625-2658. doi:10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024 [publisher-version]
- García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J., Schmid, T., Melo-Aguilar, C., Vegas-Cañas, C., Steinert, N., Roldán-Gómez, P., Cuesta-Valero, F., García-García, A., Beltrami, H. & de Vrese, P. (2024). Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain. Soil, 10, 1-21. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-462 [publisher-version]
- García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J., Melo-Aguilar, C., Steinert, N., García-Bustamante, E., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Hagemann, S., Cuesta-Valero, F., García-García, A. & Beltrami, H. (2024). First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources. Under open review for Earth System Dynamics. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 547-564. doi:10.5194/esd-15-547-2024 [publisher-version]
- Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Meissner, K., Menviel, L., Mouchet, A., Muscheler, R. & Nilson, A. (2024). Atmospheric D14C in the northern and southern hemisphere over the past two millennia: role of production rate, southern hemisphere westerly winds and ocean circulation changes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 326: 108502. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108502
- Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T. & Frieler, K. (2024). Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge. Environmental Research Letters, 19: 074005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0 [publisher-version]
- Jones, C., Adloff, F., Booth, B., Cox, P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Frieler, K., Hewitt, H., Jeffery, H., Joussaume, S., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, B., O'Rourke, E., Roberts, M., Sanderson, B., Séférian, R., Somot, S., Vidale, P.-L., van Vuuren, D., Acosta, M., Bentsen, M., Bernardello, R., Betts, R., Blockley, E., Boé, J., Bracegirdle, T., Braconnot, P., Brovkin, V., Buontempo, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M., Epicoco, I., Falloon, P., Fiore, S., Frölicher, T., Fῠckar, N., Gidden, M., Goessling, H., Graversen, R., Gualdi, S., Gutiérrez, J., Ilyina, T., Jacob, D., Jones, C., Juckes, M., Kendon, E., Kjellström, E., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Mizielinski, M., Nassisi, P., Obersteiner, M., Regnier, P., Roehrig, R., Mélia, D., Schleussner, C.-F., Schulz, M., Scoccimarro, E., Terray, L., Thiemann, H., Wood, R., Yang, S. & Zaehle, S. (2024). Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1319-1351. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024 [publisher-version]
- Lauerwald, R., Bastos, A., McGrath, M., Petrescu, A., Ritter, F., Andrew, R., Berchet, A., Broquet, G., Brunner, D., Chevallier, F., Cescatti, A., Filipek, S., Fortems‐Cheiney, A., Forzieri, G., Friedlingstein, P., Fuchs, R., Gerbig, C., Houweling, S., Ke, P., Lerink, B., Li, W., Li, W., Li, X., Luijkx, I., Monteil, G., Munassar, S., Nabuurs, G., Patra, P., Peylin, P., Pongratz, J., Regnier, P., Saunois, M., Schelhaas, M., Scholze, M., Sitch, S., Thompson, R., Tian, H., Tsuruta, A., Wilson, C., Wigneron, J., Yao, Y., Zaehle, S. & Ciais, P. (2024). Carbon and greenhouse gas budgets of Europe: trends, interannual and spatial variability, and their drivers. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38: e2024GB008141. doi:10.1029/2024GB008141 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
- Li, X., Markkanen, T., Korkiakoski, M., Lohila, A., Leppänen, A., Aalto, T., Peltoniemi, M., Mäkipää, R., Kleinen, T. & Raivonen, M. (2024). Modelling alternative harvest effects on soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes from peatland forests (in press for Science of The Total Environment). Science of the Total Environment, 951: 175257. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175257
- Martin, A., Gayler, V., Steil, B., Klingmüller, K., Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Lelieveld, J. & Pozzer, A. (2024). Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 5705-5732. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Moustakis, Y., Nützel, T., Wey, H.-W., Bao, W. & Pongratz, J. (2024). Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model. Nature Communications, 15: 8235. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x [publisher-version][supplementary-material][any-fulltext][research-data][correspondence]
- Nielsen, D., Chegini, F., März, J., Brune, S., Mathis, M., Dobrynin, M., Baehr, J., Brovkin, V. & Ilyina, T. (2024). Addendum: Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion. Nature Climate Change, 14: 1003. doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02133-9 [publisher-version]
- Nielsen, D., Chegini, F., März, J., Brune, S., Mathis, M., Dobrynin, M., Baehr, J., Brovkin, V. & Ilyina, T. (2024). Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion. Nature Climate Change, 2024. doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02074-3 [publisher-version]
- Nyawira, S., Herold, M., Mulatu, K., Roman-Cuesta, R., Houghton, R., Grassi, G., Pongratz, J., Grasser, T. & Verchot, L. (2024). Pantropical CO2 emissions and removals for the AFOLU sector in the period 1990-2018. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 29: 13. doi:10.1007/s11027-023-10096-z [publisher-version]
- Orlov, A., De Hertog, S., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., Thiery, W., Pongratz, J., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Aunan, K., Armstrong, B., Royé, D., Cvijanovic, I., Lavigne, E., Achilleos, S., Bell, M., Masselot, P., Sera, F., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Gasparrini, A. & Mistry, M., Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network (2024). Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortiality. Environmental epidemiology : an official journal of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, 8: e337. doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000337 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Rockström, J., Kotzé, L., Milutinovic, S., Biermann, F., Brovkin, V., Donges, J., Ebbeson, J., French, D., Gupta, J., Kim, R., Lenton, T., Lenzi, D., Nakicenovic, N., Neumann, B., Schuppert, F., Winkelmann, R., Bosselmann, K., Folke, C., Lucht, W., Schlosberg, D., Richardson, K. & Steffen, W. (2024). The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth- regulating systems in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121. doi:10.1073/pnas.2301531121 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Rosan, T., Sitch, S., O’Sullivan, M., Basso, L., Wilson, C., Silva, C., Gloor, E., Fawcett, D., Heinrich, V., Souza, J., Bezerra, F., von Randow, C., Mercado, L., Gatti, L., Wiltshire, A., Friedlingstein, P., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Williams, M., Smallman, L., Knauer, J., Arora, V., Kennedy, D., Tian, H., Yuan, W., Jain, A., Falk, S., Poulter, B., Arneth, A., Sun, Q., Zaehle, S., Walker, A., Kato, E., Yue, X., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Wigneron, J.-P., Albergel, C. & Aragão, L. (2024). Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020. Communications Earth and Environment, 5: 46. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0 [publisher-version]
- Schädel, C., Rogers, B., Lawrence , D., Koven , C., Brovkin, V., Burke, E., Genet, H., Huntzinger, D., Jafarov, E., McGuire, A., Riley, W. & Natali, S. (2024). Earth system models must include permafrost carbon processes. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01909-9
- Schickhoff, M., de Vrese, P., Bartsch, A., Widhalm, B. & Brovkin, V. (2024). Effects of land surface model resolution on fluxes and soil state in the Arctic. ERL, 19: 104032. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad6019 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
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- Seneviratne, S., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M., Meier, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Dufresne, J.-L., Findell, K., Lawrence, D., Malyshev, S. & Smith, B. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956 [publisher-version]
- Verheijen, L., Brovkin, V., Aerts, R., Bönish, G., Cornelissen, J., Kattge, J., Reich, P., Wright, I. & van Bodegom, P. (2013). Impacts of trait variation through observed trait-climate relationships on performance of a representative Earth System Model: a conceptual analysis. Biogeosciences, 10, 5497 -5515. doi:10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013 [publisher-version]
- Wania, R., Melton, J., Hodson, E., Poulter, B., Ringeval, B., Spahni, R., Bohn, T., Avis, C., Chen, G., Eliseev, A., Hopcroft, P., Riley, W., Subin, Z., Tian, H., van Bodegom, P., Kleinen, T., Yu, Z., Singarayer, J., Zürcher, S., Lettenmaier, D., Beerling, D., Denisov, S., Prigent, C., Papa, F. & Kaplan, J. (2013). Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP). Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 617-641. doi:10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P., Kleinen, T., Wirth, C., Cornwell, W., Cornelissen, J. & Kattge, J. (2012). Plant-driven variation in decomposition rates improves projections of global litter stock distribution. Biogeosciences, 9, 565-576. doi:10.5194/bg-9-565-2012 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D. & Munhoven, G. (2012). Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes. Climate of the Past, 8, 251-264. doi:10.5194/cp-8-251-2012 [publisher-version]
- de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Boisier, J., Pitman, A., Bonan, G., Brovkin, V., Cruz, F., Delire, C., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Lawrence, P., van der Molen, M., Muller, C., Reick, C., Strengers, B. & Voldoire, A. (2012). Determining robust impacts of land-use-induced land cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the first set of LUCID experiments. Journal of Climate, 25, 3261-3281. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00338.1
- Goll, D., Brovkin, V., Parida, B., Reick, C., Kattge, J., Reich, P., van Bodegom, P. & Niinemets, Ü. (2012). Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling. Biogeosciences, 9, 3547-3569. doi:10.5194/bg-9-3547-2012 [publisher-version]
- Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V. & Schuldt, R. (2012). A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: Results for the Holocene. Biogeosciences, 9, 235-248. doi:10.5194/bg-9-235-2012 [publisher-version]
- Pitman, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Avila, F., Alexander, L., Boisier, J.-P., Brovkin, V., Delire, C., Cruz, F., Donat, M., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Reick, C. & Voldoire, A. (2012). Effects of land cover change on temperature. Earth System Dynamics, 3, 213-231. doi:10.5194/esd-3-213-2012 [publisher-version]
- Port, U., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2012). The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change. Earth System Dynamics, 3, 233-243. doi:10.5194/esd-3-233-2012 [publisher-version]
- Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. & Brovkin, V. (2012). Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming. Biogeosciences, 9, 649-665. doi:10.5194/bg-9-649-2012 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
- Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Zanchettin, D., Hagemann, S., Kleinen, T. & Krüger, K. (2012). Climate response to the Toba super-eruption: regional changes. Quaternary International, 258, 30-44. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.10.008
- Tzedakis, P., Wolff, E., Skinner, L., Brovkin, V., Hodell, D., McManus, J. & Raynaud, D. (2012). Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?. Climate of the Past, 8, 1473-1485. doi:10.5194/cp-8-1473-2012 [publisher-version]
- Varma, V., Prange, M., Merkel, U., Kleinen, T., Lohmann, G., Pfeiffer, M., Renssen, H., Wagner, A., Wagner, S. & Schulz, M. (2012). Holocene evolution of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in transient simulations with global climate models. Climate of the Past, 8, 391-402. doi:10.5194/cp-8-391-2012 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Andreev, A., Schirrmeister, L., Tarasov, P., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Siegert, C., Wetterich, S. & Hubberten, H.-W. (2011). Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (Arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 2182-2199. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.026
- Bouttes, N., Paillard, D., Roche, D., Brovkin, V. & Bopp, L. (2011). Last glacial maximum CO₂ and δ13C successfully reconciled. Geophysical Research Letters, 38: L02705. doi:10.1029/2010GL044499 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V. (2011). Indelible footprint. Nature Geoscience, 4, 496. doi:10.1038/ngeo1220
- Kleinen, T., Tarasov, P., Brovkin, V., Andreev, A. & Stebich, M. (2011). Comparison of modeled and reconstructed changes in forest cover through the past 8000 years: Eurasian perspective. The Holocene, 21(5), 723-734. doi:10.1177/0959683610386980
- Otto, J., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. (2011). Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations. Climate of the Past, 7, 1027-1039. doi:10.5194/cp-7-1027-2011 [publisher-version]
- Palastanga, V., van der Schrier, G., Weber, S., Kleinen, T., Briffa, K. & Osborn, T. (2011). Atmosphere and ocean dynamics: contributors to the European Little Ice Age ?. Climate Dynamics, 36, 973-987. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0751-0 [publisher-version]
- Rietkerk, M., Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P., Claussen, M., Dekker, S., Dijkstra, H., Goryachkin, S., Kabat, P., van Nes, E., Neutel, A.-M., Nicholson, S., Nobre, C., Petoukhov, V., Provenzale, A., Scheffer, M. & Seneviratne, S. (2011). Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate. Ecological Complexity, 8(3), 223-228. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2011.03.001
- Vamborg, F., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2011). The effect of dynamic background albedo scheme on Sahel/Sahara precipitation during the Mid-Holocene. Climate of the Past, 7, 117-131. doi:10.5194/cp-7-117-2011 [publisher-version]
- Bathiany, S., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T. & Gayler, V. (2010). Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model. Biogeosciences, 7, 1383-1399. doi:10.5194/bg-7-1383-2010 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V., Lorenz, S., Jungclaus, J., Raddatz, T., Timmreck, C., Reick, C., Segschneider, J. & Six, K. (2010). Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions. Tellus B, 62, 674-681. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00471.x [publisher-version]
- Dekker, S., de Boer, H., Brovkin, V., Fraedrich, K., Wassen, M. & Rietkerk, M. (2010). Biogeophysical feedbacks trigger shifts in the modelled vegetation-atmosphere system at multiple scales. Biogeosciences, 7, 1237-1245. doi:10.5194/bg-7-1237-2010 [publisher-version]
- Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Timmreck, C., Reick, C., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M., Crowley, T., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N., Vieira, L., Solanki, S., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B. & Marotzke, J. (2010). Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 6, 723-737. doi:10.5194/cp-6-723-2010 [publisher-version]
- Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., von Bloh, W., Archer, D. & Munhoven, G. (2010). Holocene carbon cycle dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters, 37: L2705. doi:10.1029/2009GL041391 [publisher-version]
- Archer, D., Eby, M., Brovkin, V., Ridgwell, A., Long, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, A. & Tokos, K. (2009). Atmospheric lifetime of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 37, 117-134.
- Archer, D., Buffet, B. & Brovkin, V. (2009). Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 20596-20601. doi:10.1073/pnas.0800885105 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Bauer, E., Archer, D. & Jaeger, C. (2009). Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure. Climatic Change, 92, 243-259. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9490-1 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Claussen, M. & Gayler, V. (2009). Global biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L07405. doi:10.1029/2009GL037543 [publisher-version]
- Churkina, G., Brovkin, V., von Bloh, W., Trusilova, K., Jung, M. & Dentener, F. (2009). Synergy of rising nitrogen depositions and atmospheric CO2 on land carbon uptake moderately offsets global warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23: GB4027. doi:10.1029/2008GB003291 [publisher-version]
- Kleinen, T., Osborn, T. & Briffa, K. (2009). Sensitivity of climate response to variations in freshwater hosing location. Ocean Dynamics, 59, 509-521. doi:10.1007/s10236-009-0189-2 [publisher-version]
- Otto, J., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. (2009). Climate variability-induced uncertainty in mid-Holocene atmosphere-ocean-vegetation feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L23710. doi:10.1029/2009GL041457 [publisher-version]
- Otto, J., Raddatz, T., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V. & Gayler, V. (2009). Separation of atmosphere-ocean-vegetation feedbacks and synergies for mid-Holocene climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L09701. doi:10.1029/2009GL037482. [publisher-version]
- Pitman, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Cruz, F., Davin, E., Bonan, G., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Delire, C., Ganzefeld, L., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Lawrence, P., van der Molen, M., Müller, C., Reick, C., Seneviratne, S., Strengers, B. & Voldoire, A. (2009). Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L14814. doi:10.1029/2009GL039076 [publisher-version]
- Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions [Review]. Nature, 461(7260), 53-59. doi:10.1038/nature08227
- Tzedakis, P., Raynaud, D., McManus, J., Berger, A., Brovkin, V. & Kiefer, T. (2009). Interglacial diversity. Nature Geoscience, 2, 751-755. doi:10.1038/ngeo660
- Archer, D. & Brovkin, V. (2008). Millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO₂. Climatic Change, 90, 283-297. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9413-1 [publisher-version]
- Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2008). Comment on “Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years". Science, 322, 1326b-1326b. doi:10.1126/science.1163381
- Brovkin, V., Cherkinsky, A. & Gorachkin, S. (2008). Estimating soil carbon turnover using radiocarbon data: a case study for European Russia. Ecological Modelling, 216, 178-187. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.03.018
- Cornwell, W., Johannes, H., Cornelissen, J., Amatangelo, K., Dorrepaal, E., Eviner, V., Godoy, O., Hobbie, S., Hoorens, B., Kurokawa, H., Harguindeguy, N., Quested, H., Santiago, L., Wardle, D., Wright, I., Aerts, R., Allison, S., van Bodegom, P., Brovkin, V., Chatain, A., Callaghan, T., Diaz, S., Garnier, E., Gurvich, D., Kazakou, E., Klein, J., Read, J., Reich, P., Soudzilovskaia, N., Vaieretti, V. & Westoby, M. (2008). The leaf economic spectrum drives litter decomposition within regional floras worldwide. Ecology Letters, 11, 1065-1071. doi:10.111/j.1461-0248.2008.01219.x
- Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V. & Held, H. (2008). Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 14308-14312. doi:10.1073/pnas.0802430105 [publisher-version]
- Jaeger, C., Schellnhuber, H. & Brovkin, V. (2008). Stern's review and Dam's fallacy. Climatic Change, 89, 207-218. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9436-7 [publisher-version]
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Tel: +49 (0)40 41173-339
victor.brovkin@mpimet.mpg.de
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