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Climate-Biosphere Interaction

The terrestrial biosphere, predominantly the vegetation, is controlled by the climate. In turn, the vegetation affects the climate through numerous biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. As an example, a boreal forest pumps water out of the ground, traps solar irradiation at the surface by masking snow cover in spring, and stores an ample amount of carbon in biomass and litter. On the long term, the vegetation alters soils, creates its own local environment, and affects climate far beyond its own boundaries.

How strong are interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate, such as feedback between the carbon cycle and climate (see figure 1)? Could external forcings, for example CO2-induced warming or deforestation, lead to abrupt transitions in natural ecosystems reflected in changes in precipitation and temperature as well as in their extremes? To address these questions, our group develops and uses models of different complexity, from simple conceptual models to sophisticated Earth System models.

Figure 1: Conceptual representation of the interaction between atmospheric CO2 and land surface temperature. Input: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation. Currently, about 44% of emissions remain in the atmosphere, about 30% are taken up by land — largely through CO2 fertilization (blue arrow), and the rest by the ocean. A rise in temperature due to the greenhouse effect (red arrow) reduces carbon uptake by land because of greater CO2 respiration (blue arrow). The reduction in carbon uptake by land results in an increase in atmospheric CO2 representing a positive (amplifying) feedback (Adapted from Brovkin & Gayler, PROMET, 105, 61 – 68, 2022).

Despite of ongoing deforestation, the land takes up about 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions today. This enormous service of the land biosphere to humans helps to slow down global warming, but the capacity of land to absorb fossil CO2 emissions is limited. If fossil fuel emissions stop, the land will still continue to take up some carbon, but at a much smaller rate. To understand and project future climate, it is very important to know how exactly the land biosphere responds to climate and CO2 changes on these time scales. 

Our research

Climate-biosphere interactions is an enormous research area, with fascinating examples from the past (green Sahara, glacial cycles), present (land CO2 fertilization), and future (carbon-climate feedback). Out of many research opportunities, the main focus of our group is on processes affecting the climate on decadal to centennial timescales. In particular, high latitude ecosystems show a strong sensitivity to ongoing climate change, with a significant potential to affect the climate though modified CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Physical feedbacks between land surface hydrology and the climate could substantially modify atmospheric and oceanic circulations beyond the Arctic boundaries. What is the future of the Arctic, will it be drier or wetter, and how does it affect the global climate?

Unspoilt nature with river course and endless forests, flat mountains looming on the horizon
Landscape around the settlement at Chersky, eastern Siberia. Photo: Meike Schickhoff.

Permafrost and carbon dynamics

High latitude ecosystems have served as a slow but permanent carbon sink during the last millennia and continue to take up carbon at present (e.g., Bruhwiler et al., 2021). A unique feature of this region is the presence of permanently frozen soils, which contain substantial amounts of carbon accumulated during glacial cycles, but also water in the form of ground ice. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the average rate of warming for the planet as a whole. What is the fate of frozen carbon in the future, and are changes in permafrost and carbon irreversible?

The most recent IPCC Assessment Report estimates a release from permafrost regions of 18 PgC (uncertainty range 3.1–41 PgC) per one degree of global temperature rise by the year 2100. Simulations done in our group fall within this uncertainty range. How much is it in comparison with the fossil fuel emissions? The carbon emissions needed to raise the global temperature by 1°C in the MPI Earth System Model are about 600 PgC (MacDougal et al., 2020). Additional CO2 emissions coming from permafrost thawing amplify the climate change by 2-10% (Kleinen and Brovkin, 2018), which is not negligible. It cannot, however, lead to a runaway effect, in which greenhouse warming reinforces itself eventually leading to the evaporation of all liquid water on the planet, similar to the climate on Venus. Stronger thawing is expected by the year 2300 (Figure 2) for the high-end RCP8.5 scenario (Figure 2).

Carbon frozen soil layers
Figure 2: Simulated carbon stocks in frozen layers for the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere. The Black line stands for historic period (1850-2005), blue for the low-end emission scenario RCP2.6, yellow for the intermediate scenario RCP4.5, and red for the high-end emission scenario RCP8.5 that leads to the complete thawing of frozen carbon in the upper 3 meters of soil. The Shaded areas show uncertainty envelopes (Kleinen and Brovkin, Environmental Research Letters, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad824). (Kleinen and Brovkin, Environmental Research Letters, 2018, CC BY 3.0)

Interactions between land surface processes and climate could lead to the phenomenon of multiple steady states. One famous example is the feedback between atmospheric circulation and the vegetation cover in North Africa that could explain the substantial greening of the Sahara in the mid-Holocene. Several studies suggest that, for present-day, both desert and green states are potentially stable in North Africa, and the transition between them could be rather abrupt (link to Martin’s page). For permafrost soils, interactions between soil temperature, water, and organic carbon could result in two different states: dry, organic-poor, warmer soil, and wet, organic-rich, colder soil. The difference between these two states could be regionally very substantial (Figure 3).

Another example of alternative steady states comes from the analysis of remote sensing data (Abis and Brovkin, Biogeosciences, 2017). When we studied the link between observed tree-cover fraction distribution in boreal regions with mean annual rainfall, minimum temperature, permafrost distribution, soil moisture, wildfire frequency, and soil texture, we found areas with potentially alternative tree cover states (forest, mixed, treeless) under the same environmental conditions. These areas, although encompassing a minor fraction of the boreal area (ca. 5 %), correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. (Figure 4).

 

Figure 3: The difference in thickness of the active layer (the top layer of soil that thaws during the summer and freezes again during the winter, left, cm) and soil organic carbon (right, kg/m2) between dry, mineral and wet, organic-rich steady states in permafrost regions due to positive feedbacks between soil hydrology, temperature, and carbon (de Vrese and Brovkin, Nature Communications, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5)
(de Vrese and Brovkin, 2021, DOI, CC BY 4.0)
Figure 4: Distribution of possible alternative tree‐cover state areas (Abis & Brovkin, 2017, https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/14/511/2017/; Abis & Brovkin, 2019, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12880). Regions colored in green represent monostable areas, shaded according to the three dominant vegetation modes inferred from remote sensing: Forest, Open woodland and Treeless. These modes correspond to remotely sensed tree‐cover fraction values above 45%, between 20% and 45%, and below 20%, respectively. Regions in shades of blue correspond to multi-stable areas, where alternative tree‐cover states are found under the same environmental conditions.
(Adapted from Abis & Brovkin, 2019, CC BY 4.0 )

Closing the scaling gap between fine-scale processes and Earth System Models in the Arctic

The Arctic landscape is a mixture of open water, wetlands, forest and tundra. Current Earth system models have too coarse a spatial resolution (ca 100 km) to capture processes on a fine-scale of few meters. How can we deal with this extreme heterogeneity of the land surface? To close the scaling gap, our group develops an upscaling approach to link micro-, meso-, and macro scales (Figure 5). We are enhancing the resolution of our land surface model ICON-Land/JSBACH down to a few kilometers, aiming at running it on a pan-Arctic scale in the synergy project Q-ARCTIC, recently funded by the European Research Council. We are working on this in collaboration with research groups focused on remote sensing of the environment and vegetation in the Arctic (b.geos) and local scale observations and regional inversions of greenhouse gas fluxes (MPI-BGC).

Figure 5: example of multi-scaling approach in Q-ARCTIC. V. Brovkin: detail left: Cresto-Aleina et al, A stochastic model for the polygonal tundra based on Poisson–Voronoi diagrams, 2013, DOI, CC BY 3.0, detail left center: M. Schickhoff et al., in progress, detail right center and right: V. Brovkin

Processes on a fine scale are highly parameterized in large-scale models. If we consider an example of very small water bodies or ponds, they contribute disproportionally to the Arctic methane emissions. Methane concentrations in ponds vary strongly, calling for process-based understanding of variability. To do so, Rehder et al. (2021) categorized polygonal-tundra ponds in the Lena River Delta into three geomorphological types with distinct differences in drivers of methane concentrations: polygonal-center ponds, ice-wedge ponds and larger, merged polygonal ponds (Figure, left and center). They found that methane concentrations negatively correlate with the size of the pond: the smaller the pond, the higher the surface concentrations of methane (Figure, right). Also, no single driver (such as wind speed, water temperature, or water depth) could explain variability over all pond types suggesting that more complex upscaling methods such as process-based modeling are needed.

Surface concentrations methane
Figure 6: Figure: Measured surface concentrations of methane decrease with increasing pond area (right). Study area: The Lena River Delta (left) is located in Eastern Siberia at the coast of the Laptev Sea, Samoylov Island (center) is situated in the southern end of the Delta (Rehder et al., 2021, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.617662/).
Rehder et al., 2021, CC BY 4.0

Modeling wetlands and the methane cycle

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas produced in anaerobic conditions, in particular in inundated soils (wetlands). Although the feedback between climate and methane is not as strong as between CO2 and temperature, increasing CO2 concentrations and changes in the surface hydrology are leading to substantial increases in wetland emissions to the atmosphere in future scenarios. These changes are underestimated in the current sets of future projections (Figure 7). Natural sources of methane are also becoming important in the climate stabilization scenarios when the global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial is kept below a certain threshold such as 1.5 or 2°C.

Figure 7: Global atmospheric concentration of methane (parts per billion, ppb) in interactive MPI-ESM experiments until 3000 CE (Kleinen et al, 2021) and CMIP6 scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020). Kleinen et al, 2021, CC BY 4.0

In short — very unlikely, but we cannot completely rule it out. Our group is involved in a joint project with the marine biogeochemistry groups focusing on the potential release of methane from sub-sea permafrost thawing.

During glacial cycles, the shallow Arctic shelf was land exposed to freezing temperatures that accumulated organic matter during short but productive summers. After the melting of the ice sheets, the shelf was flooded and frozen sediments are now slowly thawing from the top but also from the bottom due to a geothermal heat flux. Under warming scenarios, the ocean floor will warm and ice in the sediments will melt, allowing microbes to decompose previously frozen organic matter. This process leads to in-situ production of methane, one part of which could be eaten up by methane-consuming microbes in the sediments, and another part of which can escape into the atmosphere. The stronger the warming, the more ice will melt in the sediments (Figure 8). This process is very slow, but under certain scenarios, by the year 2300, the methane emissions from the shelf could be more than the methane emission from boreal wetlands (work in progress).

Figure 8: Simulations of subsea ice column melting (meters) for the three scenarios in the period 1850–3000 AD (Wilkenskjeld et al., The Cryosphere, 2022). The stabilization scenario (SSP1-2.6, left) leads to minor changes, while the high-end emission scenario (SSP5-8.5, right) leads to strong changes with a maximum at the Siberian coast. Response in the SSP4-4.5 scenario is shown in the middle. (Wilkenskjeld et al., 2022, DOI, CC BY 4.0)

Group members and publications

  • Bouttes, N., Kwiatkowski, L., Berger, M., Brovkin, V. & Munhoven, G. (2024). Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO_3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 6513-6528. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Bustamante, M., Roy, J., Ospina, D., Achakulwisut, P., Aggarwal, A., Bastos, A., Broadgate, W., Canadell, J., Carr, E., Chen, D., Cleugh, H., Ebi, K., Edwards, C., Farbotko, C., Fernández-Martínez, M., Frölicher, T., Fuss, S., Geden, O., Gruber, N., Harrington, L., Hauck, J., Hausfather, Z., Hebden, S., Hebinck, A., Huq, S., Huss, M., Jamero, M., Juhola, S., Kumarasinghe, N., Lwasa, S., Mallick, B., Martin, M., McGreevy, S., Mirazo, P., Mukherji, A., Muttitt, G., Nemet, G., Obura, D., Okereke, C., Oliver, T., Orlove, B., Ouedraogo, N., Patra, P., Pelling, M., Pereira, L., Persson, Å., Pongratz, J., Prakash, A., Rammig, A., Raymond, C., Redman, A., Reveco, C., Rockström, J., Rodrigues, R., Rounce, D., Schipper, E., Schlosser, P., Selomane, O., Semieniuk, G., Shin, Y.-J., Siddiqui, T., Singh, V., Sioen, G., Sokona, Y., Stammer, D., Steinert, N., Suk, S., Sutton, R., Thalheimer, L., Thompson, V., Trencher, G., Van Der Geest, K., Werners, S., Wübbelmann, T., Wunderling, N., Yin, J., Zickfeld, K. & Zscheischler, J. (2024). Ten new insights in climate science 2023. Global Sustainability, 7: e19. doi:10.1017/sus.2023.25 [publisher-version]
  • Creel, R., Miessner, F., Wilkenskjeld, S., Austermann, J. & Overduin, P. (2024). Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost. Nature Communications, 15: 3232. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45906-8 [publisher-version]
  • de Hertog, S., Lopez-Fabara, C., van der Ent, R., Keune, J., Miralles, D., Portmann, R., Schemm, S., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Luo, F., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S. & Thiery, W. (2024). Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 265-291. doi:10.5194/esd-15-265-2024 [publisher-version]
  • de Vrese, P., Stacke, T., Gayler, V. & Brovkin, V. (2024). Permafrost cloud feedback may amplify climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2024GL109034. doi:10.1029/2024GL109034 [publisher-version]
  • Dorgeist, L., Schwingshackl, C., Bultan, S. & Pongratz, J. (2024). A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Nature Communications, 15: 7426. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51126-x [publisher-version][research-data][supplementary-material][any-fulltext][supplementary-material][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Egerer, S., Falk, S., Mayer, D., Nützel, T., Obermeier, W. & Pongratz, J. (2024). How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation. Biogeosciences, 21(22), 5005-5025. doi:10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024 [publisher-version]
  • Forster, P., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Hall, B., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M., Rogelj, J., von Schuckmann, K., Trewin, B., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Betts, R., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J., Buontempo, C., Burgess, S., Cagnazzo, C., Cheng, L., Friedlingstein, P., Gettelman, A., Gütschow, J., Ishii, M., Jenkins, S., Lan, X., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R., Krummel, P., Minx, J., Myhre, G., Naik, V., Peters, G., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S., Szopa, S., Thorne, P., Kovilakam, M., Majamäki, E., Jalkanen, J.-P., van Marle, M., Hoesly, R., Rohde, R., Schumacher, D., van der Werf, G., Vose, R., Zickfeld, K., Zhang, X., Masson-Delmotte, V. & Zhai, P. (2024). Indicators of global climate change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data, 16, 2625-2658. doi:10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024 [publisher-version]
  • García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J., Schmid, T., Melo-Aguilar, C., Vegas-Cañas, C., Steinert, N., Roldán-Gómez, P., Cuesta-Valero, F., García-García, A., Beltrami, H. & de Vrese, P. (2024). Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain. Soil, 10, 1-21. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-462 [publisher-version]
  • García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J., Melo-Aguilar, C., Steinert, N., García-Bustamante, E., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Hagemann, S., Cuesta-Valero, F., García-García, A. & Beltrami, H. (2024). First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources. Under open review for Earth System Dynamics. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 547-564. doi:10.5194/esd-15-547-2024 [publisher-version]
  • Gieße, C., Notz, D. & Baehr, J. (2024). The shifting distribution of Arctic daily temperatures under global warming. Earth's Future, 12(11): e2024EF004961. doi:10.1029/2024EF004961 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Meissner, K., Menviel, L., Mouchet, A., Muscheler, R. & Nilson, A. (2024). Atmospheric D14C in the northern and southern hemisphere over the past two millennia: role of production rate, southern hemisphere westerly winds and ocean circulation changes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 326: 108502. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108502
  • Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T. & Frieler, K. (2024). Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge. Environmental Research Letters, 19: 074005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0 [publisher-version]
  • Jones, C., Adloff, F., Booth, B., Cox, P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Frieler, K., Hewitt, H., Jeffery, H., Joussaume, S., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, B., O'Rourke, E., Roberts, M., Sanderson, B., Séférian, R., Somot, S., Vidale, P.-L., van Vuuren, D., Acosta, M., Bentsen, M., Bernardello, R., Betts, R., Blockley, E., Boé, J., Bracegirdle, T., Braconnot, P., Brovkin, V., Buontempo, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M., Epicoco, I., Falloon, P., Fiore, S., Frölicher, T., Fῠckar, N., Gidden, M., Goessling, H., Graversen, R., Gualdi, S., Gutiérrez, J., Ilyina, T., Jacob, D., Jones, C., Juckes, M., Kendon, E., Kjellström, E., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Mizielinski, M., Nassisi, P., Obersteiner, M., Regnier, P., Roehrig, R., Mélia, D., Schleussner, C.-F., Schulz, M., Scoccimarro, E., Terray, L., Thiemann, H., Wood, R., Yang, S. & Zaehle, S. (2024). Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1319-1351. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024 [publisher-version]
  • Lauerwald, R., Bastos, A., McGrath, M., Petrescu, A., Ritter, F., Andrew, R., Berchet, A., Broquet, G., Brunner, D., Chevallier, F., Cescatti, A., Filipek, S., Fortems‐Cheiney, A., Forzieri, G., Friedlingstein, P., Fuchs, R., Gerbig, C., Houweling, S., Ke, P., Lerink, B., Li, W., Li, W., Li, X., Luijkx, I., Monteil, G., Munassar, S., Nabuurs, G., Patra, P., Peylin, P., Pongratz, J., Regnier, P., Saunois, M., Schelhaas, M., Scholze, M., Sitch, S., Thompson, R., Tian, H., Tsuruta, A., Wilson, C., Wigneron, J., Yao, Y., Zaehle, S. & Ciais, P. (2024). Carbon and greenhouse gas budgets of Europe: trends, interannual and spatial variability, and their drivers. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38: e2024GB008141. doi:10.1029/2024GB008141 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Li, X., Markkanen, T., Korkiakoski, M., Lohila, A., Leppänen, A., Aalto, T., Peltoniemi, M., Mäkipää, R., Kleinen, T. & Raivonen, M. (2024). Modelling alternative harvest effects on soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes from peatland forests (in press for Science of The Total Environment). Science of the Total Environment, 951: 175257. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175257
  • Martin, A., Gayler, V., Steil, B., Klingmüller, K., Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Lelieveld, J. & Pozzer, A. (2024). Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 5705-5732. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Moustakis, Y., Nützel, T., Wey, H.-W., Bao, W. & Pongratz, J. (2024). Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model. Nature Communications, 15: 8235. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x [publisher-version][supplementary-material][any-fulltext][research-data][correspondence]
  • Nielsen, D., Chegini, F., März, J., Brune, S., Mathis, M., Dobrynin, M., Baehr, J., Brovkin, V. & Ilyina, T. (2024). Addendum: Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion. Nature Climate Change, 14: 1003. doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02133-9 [publisher-version]
  • Nielsen, D., Chegini, F., März, J., Brune, S., Mathis, M., Dobrynin, M., Baehr, J., Brovkin, V. & Ilyina, T. (2024). Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion. Nature Climate Change, 2024. doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02074-3 [publisher-version]
  • Nyawira, S., Herold, M., Mulatu, K., Roman-Cuesta, R., Houghton, R., Grassi, G., Pongratz, J., Grasser, T. & Verchot, L. (2024). Pantropical CO2 emissions and removals for the AFOLU sector in the period 1990-2018. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 29: 13. doi:10.1007/s11027-023-10096-z [publisher-version]
  • O'Sullivan, M., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Luijkx, I., Peters, W., Rosan, T., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Feng, L., Gasser, T., Houghton, R., Jain, A., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., McGrath, M., Niwa, Y., Palmer, P., Patra, P., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B., Rödenbeck, C., Schwingshackl, C., Sun, Q., Tian, H., Walker, A., Yang, D., Yuan, W., Yue, X. & Zaehle, S. (2024). The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink. Communications Earth & Environment, 5: 705. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4 [publisher-version][any-fulltext][supplementary-material]
  • Orlov, A., De Hertog, S., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., Thiery, W., Pongratz, J., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Aunan, K., Armstrong, B., Royé, D., Cvijanovic, I., Lavigne, E., Achilleos, S., Bell, M., Masselot, P., Sera, F., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Gasparrini, A. & Mistry, M., Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network (2024). Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortiality. Environmental epidemiology : an official journal of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, 8: e337. doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000337 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Rockström, J., Kotzé, L., Milutinovic, S., Biermann, F., Brovkin, V., Donges, J., Ebbeson, J., French, D., Gupta, J., Kim, R., Lenton, T., Lenzi, D., Nakicenovic, N., Neumann, B., Schuppert, F., Winkelmann, R., Bosselmann, K., Folke, C., Lucht, W., Schlosberg, D., Richardson, K. & Steffen, W. (2024). The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth- regulating systems in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121. doi:10.1073/pnas.2301531121 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Rosan, T., Sitch, S., O’Sullivan, M., Basso, L., Wilson, C., Silva, C., Gloor, E., Fawcett, D., Heinrich, V., Souza, J., Bezerra, F., von Randow, C., Mercado, L., Gatti, L., Wiltshire, A., Friedlingstein, P., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Williams, M., Smallman, L., Knauer, J., Arora, V., Kennedy, D., Tian, H., Yuan, W., Jain, A., Falk, S., Poulter, B., Arneth, A., Sun, Q., Zaehle, S., Walker, A., Kato, E., Yue, X., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Wigneron, J.-P., Albergel, C. & Aragão, L. (2024). Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020. Communications Earth and Environment, 5: 46. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0 [publisher-version]
  • Schädel, C., Rogers, B., Lawrence , D., Koven , C., Brovkin, V., Burke, E., Genet, H., Huntzinger, D., Jafarov, E., McGuire, A., Riley, W. & Natali, S. (2024). Earth system models must include permafrost carbon processes. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01909-9
  • Schickhoff, M., de Vrese, P., Bartsch, A., Widhalm, B. & Brovkin, V. (2024). Effects of land surface model resolution on fluxes and soil state in the Arctic. ERL, 19: 104032. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad6019 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Schlutow, M., Stacke, T., Doerffel, T., Smolarkiewicz, P. & Göckede, M. (2024). Large eddy simulations of the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and degrading Arctic permafrost. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129: e2024JD040794. doi:10.1029/2024JD040794 [publisher-version]
  • Shihora, L., Liu, Z., Balidakis, K., Wilms, J., Dahle, C., Flechtner, F., Dill, R. & Dobslaw, H. (2024). Accounting for residual errors in atmosphere–ocean background models applied in satellite gravimetry. Journal of Geodesy, 98: 27. doi:10.1007/s00190-024-01832-7 [publisher-version]
  • Sitch, S., O'Sullivan, M., Robertson, E., Friedlingstein, P., Albergel, C., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Bellouin, N., Canadell, J., Chini, L., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Harris, I., Hurtt, G., Ito, A., Jain, A., Jones, M., Joos, F., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J., Nabel, J., Pan, N., Peylin, P., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B., Rosan, T., Sun, Q., Tian, H., Walker, A., Weber, U., Yuan, W., Yue, X. & Zaehle, S. (2024). Trends and drivers of regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide: an overview of the TRENDY project. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 28. doi:10.1029/2024GB008102 [publisher-version]
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  • Segschneider, J., Beitsch, A., Timmreck, C., Brovkin, V., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Six, K. & Zanchettin, D. (2013). Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations. Biogeosciences, 10, 669-687. doi:10.5194/bg-10-669-2013 [publisher-version]
  • Seneviratne, S., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M., Meier, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Dufresne, J.-L., Findell, K., Lawrence, D., Malyshev, S. & Smith, B. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956 [publisher-version]
  • Verheijen, L., Brovkin, V., Aerts, R., Bönish, G., Cornelissen, J., Kattge, J., Reich, P., Wright, I. & van Bodegom, P. (2013). Impacts of trait variation through observed trait-climate relationships on performance of a representative Earth System Model: a conceptual analysis. Biogeosciences, 10, 5497 -5515. doi:10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013 [publisher-version]
  • Wania, R., Melton, J., Hodson, E., Poulter, B., Ringeval, B., Spahni, R., Bohn, T., Avis, C., Chen, G., Eliseev, A., Hopcroft, P., Riley, W., Subin, Z., Tian, H., van Bodegom, P., Kleinen, T., Yu, Z., Singarayer, J., Zürcher, S., Lettenmaier, D., Beerling, D., Denisov, S., Prigent, C., Papa, F. & Kaplan, J. (2013). Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP). Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 617-641. doi:10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P., Kleinen, T., Wirth, C., Cornwell, W., Cornelissen, J. & Kattge, J. (2012). Plant-driven variation in decomposition rates improves projections of global litter stock distribution. Biogeosciences, 9, 565-576. doi:10.5194/bg-9-565-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D. & Munhoven, G. (2012). Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes. Climate of the Past, 8, 251-264. doi:10.5194/cp-8-251-2012 [publisher-version]
  • de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Boisier, J., Pitman, A., Bonan, G., Brovkin, V., Cruz, F., Delire, C., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Lawrence, P., van der Molen, M., Muller, C., Reick, C., Strengers, B. & Voldoire, A. (2012). Determining robust impacts of land-use-induced land cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the first set of LUCID experiments. Journal of Climate, 25, 3261-3281. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00338.1
  • Goll, D., Brovkin, V., Parida, B., Reick, C., Kattge, J., Reich, P., van Bodegom, P. & Niinemets, Ü. (2012). Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling. Biogeosciences, 9, 3547-3569. doi:10.5194/bg-9-3547-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V. & Schuldt, R. (2012). A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: Results for the Holocene. Biogeosciences, 9, 235-248. doi:10.5194/bg-9-235-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Pitman, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Avila, F., Alexander, L., Boisier, J.-P., Brovkin, V., Delire, C., Cruz, F., Donat, M., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Reick, C. & Voldoire, A. (2012). Effects of land cover change on temperature. Earth System Dynamics, 3, 213-231. doi:10.5194/esd-3-213-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Port, U., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2012). The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change. Earth System Dynamics, 3, 233-243. doi:10.5194/esd-3-233-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. & Brovkin, V. (2012). Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming. Biogeosciences, 9, 649-665. doi:10.5194/bg-9-649-2012 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Zanchettin, D., Hagemann, S., Kleinen, T. & Krüger, K. (2012). Climate response to the Toba super-eruption: regional changes. Quaternary International, 258, 30-44. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.10.008
  • Tzedakis, P., Wolff, E., Skinner, L., Brovkin, V., Hodell, D., McManus, J. & Raynaud, D. (2012). Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?. Climate of the Past, 8, 1473-1485. doi:10.5194/cp-8-1473-2012 [publisher-version]
  • Varma, V., Prange, M., Merkel, U., Kleinen, T., Lohmann, G., Pfeiffer, M., Renssen, H., Wagner, A., Wagner, S. & Schulz, M. (2012). Holocene evolution of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in transient simulations with global climate models. Climate of the Past, 8, 391-402. doi:10.5194/cp-8-391-2012 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Andreev, A., Schirrmeister, L., Tarasov, P., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Siegert, C., Wetterich, S. & Hubberten, H.-W. (2011). Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (Arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 2182-2199. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.026
  • Bouttes, N., Paillard, D., Roche, D., Brovkin, V. & Bopp, L. (2011). Last glacial maximum CO₂ and δ13C successfully reconciled. Geophysical Research Letters, 38: L02705. doi:10.1029/2010GL044499 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V. (2011). Indelible footprint. Nature Geoscience, 4, 496. doi:10.1038/ngeo1220
  • Kleinen, T., Tarasov, P., Brovkin, V., Andreev, A. & Stebich, M. (2011). Comparison of modeled and reconstructed changes in forest cover through the past 8000 years: Eurasian perspective. The Holocene, 21(5), 723-734. doi:10.1177/0959683610386980
  • Otto, J., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. (2011). Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations. Climate of the Past, 7, 1027-1039. doi:10.5194/cp-7-1027-2011 [publisher-version]
  • Palastanga, V., van der Schrier, G., Weber, S., Kleinen, T., Briffa, K. & Osborn, T. (2011). Atmosphere and ocean dynamics: contributors to the European Little Ice Age ?. Climate Dynamics, 36, 973-987. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0751-0 [publisher-version]
  • Rietkerk, M., Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P., Claussen, M., Dekker, S., Dijkstra, H., Goryachkin, S., Kabat, P., van Nes, E., Neutel, A.-M., Nicholson, S., Nobre, C., Petoukhov, V., Provenzale, A., Scheffer, M. & Seneviratne, S. (2011). Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate. Ecological Complexity, 8(3), 223-228. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2011.03.001
  • Vamborg, F., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2011). The effect of dynamic background albedo scheme on Sahel/Sahara precipitation during the Mid-Holocene. Climate of the Past, 7, 117-131. doi:10.5194/cp-7-117-2011 [publisher-version]
  • Bathiany, S., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T. & Gayler, V. (2010). Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model. Biogeosciences, 7, 1383-1399. doi:10.5194/bg-7-1383-2010 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V., Lorenz, S., Jungclaus, J., Raddatz, T., Timmreck, C., Reick, C., Segschneider, J. & Six, K. (2010). Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions. Tellus B, 62, 674-681. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00471.x [publisher-version]
  • Dekker, S., de Boer, H., Brovkin, V., Fraedrich, K., Wassen, M. & Rietkerk, M. (2010). Biogeophysical feedbacks trigger shifts in the modelled vegetation-atmosphere system at multiple scales. Biogeosciences, 7, 1237-1245. doi:10.5194/bg-7-1237-2010 [publisher-version]
  • Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Timmreck, C., Reick, C., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M., Crowley, T., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N., Vieira, L., Solanki, S., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B. & Marotzke, J. (2010). Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 6, 723-737. doi:10.5194/cp-6-723-2010 [publisher-version]
  • Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., von Bloh, W., Archer, D. & Munhoven, G. (2010). Holocene carbon cycle dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters, 37: L2705. doi:10.1029/2009GL041391 [publisher-version]
  • Archer, D., Eby, M., Brovkin, V., Ridgwell, A., Long, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, A. & Tokos, K. (2009). Atmospheric lifetime of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 37, 117-134.
  • Archer, D., Buffet, B. & Brovkin, V. (2009). Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 20596-20601. doi:10.1073/pnas.0800885105 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Bauer, E., Archer, D. & Jaeger, C. (2009). Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure. Climatic Change, 92, 243-259. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9490-1 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Claussen, M. & Gayler, V. (2009). Global biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L07405. doi:10.1029/2009GL037543 [publisher-version]
  • Churkina, G., Brovkin, V., von Bloh, W., Trusilova, K., Jung, M. & Dentener, F. (2009). Synergy of rising nitrogen depositions and atmospheric CO2 on land carbon uptake moderately offsets global warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23: GB4027. doi:10.1029/2008GB003291 [publisher-version]
  • Kleinen, T., Osborn, T. & Briffa, K. (2009). Sensitivity of climate response to variations in freshwater hosing location. Ocean Dynamics, 59, 509-521. doi:10.1007/s10236-009-0189-2 [publisher-version]
  • Otto, J., Raddatz, T. & Claussen, M. (2009). Climate variability-induced uncertainty in mid-Holocene atmosphere-ocean-vegetation feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L23710. doi:10.1029/2009GL041457 [publisher-version]
  • Otto, J., Raddatz, T., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V. & Gayler, V. (2009). Separation of atmosphere-ocean-vegetation feedbacks and synergies for mid-Holocene climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L09701. doi:10.1029/2009GL037482. [publisher-version]
  • Pitman, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Cruz, F., Davin, E., Bonan, G., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Delire, C., Ganzefeld, L., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B., Lawrence, P., van der Molen, M., Müller, C., Reick, C., Seneviratne, S., Strengers, B. & Voldoire, A. (2009). Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophysical Research Letters, 36: L14814. doi:10.1029/2009GL039076 [publisher-version]
  • Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions [Review]. Nature, 461(7260), 53-59. doi:10.1038/nature08227
  • Tzedakis, P., Raynaud, D., McManus, J., Berger, A., Brovkin, V. & Kiefer, T. (2009). Interglacial diversity. Nature Geoscience, 2, 751-755. doi:10.1038/ngeo660
  • Archer, D. & Brovkin, V. (2008). Millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO₂. Climatic Change, 90, 283-297. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9413-1 [publisher-version]
  • Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2008). Comment on “Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years". Science, 322, 1326b-1326b. doi:10.1126/science.1163381
  • Brovkin, V., Cherkinsky, A. & Gorachkin, S. (2008). Estimating soil carbon turnover using radiocarbon data: a case study for European Russia. Ecological Modelling, 216, 178-187. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.03.018
  • Cornwell, W., Johannes, H., Cornelissen, J., Amatangelo, K., Dorrepaal, E., Eviner, V., Godoy, O., Hobbie, S., Hoorens, B., Kurokawa, H., Harguindeguy, N., Quested, H., Santiago, L., Wardle, D., Wright, I., Aerts, R., Allison, S., van Bodegom, P., Brovkin, V., Chatain, A., Callaghan, T., Diaz, S., Garnier, E., Gurvich, D., Kazakou, E., Klein, J., Read, J., Reich, P., Soudzilovskaia, N., Vaieretti, V. & Westoby, M. (2008). The leaf economic spectrum drives litter decomposition within regional floras worldwide. Ecology Letters, 11, 1065-1071. doi:10.111/j.1461-0248.2008.01219.x
  • Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V. & Held, H. (2008). Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 14308-14312. doi:10.1073/pnas.0802430105 [publisher-version]
  • Jaeger, C., Schellnhuber, H. & Brovkin, V. (2008). Stern's review and Dam's fallacy. Climatic Change, 89, 207-218. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9436-7 [publisher-version]

Contact

Prof. Dr. Victor Brovkin

Group leader
Phone: +49 (0)40 41173-339
victor.brovkin@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

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Department Climate Dynamics

We aim to advance our fundamental understanding of global climate dynamics by employing a unique research strategy that involves systematically combining a hierarchy of models with principle-based theories. Our focus centers on exploring the mechanisms that govern large-scale climate change patterns across various regions ...

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