Forschungsgruppe des Direktors

Die großräumige Dynamik der Ozeane und die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre spielen eine grundlegende Rolle für das globale und regionale Klima und beeinflussen den Verlauf des Klimawandels. Meeresströmungen sorgen für die Umverteilung von Wärme, Süßwasser und Stoffen wie CO2. Die relativ langsamen Zeitskalen, auf denen Prozesse im Ozean ablaufen, und seine enorme Speicherkapazität machen den Ozean zum Schwungrad des Klimasystems.

Die Forschungsgruppe des Direktors untersucht die Dynamik der großräumigen Ozeanschwankungen und deren Auswirkungen unter verschiedenen klimatischen Hintergrundzuständen und unter den Bedingungen der globalen Erwärmung. Wir konzentrieren uns auf das Verständnis der Mechanismen, die Ozean- und Atmosphärenschwankungen auf Zeitskalen von einzelnen Tagen bis zu Hunderten von Jahren miteinander verbinden. Unsere Gruppe wendet Theorie- sowie Modellsysteme von unterschiedlicher Komplexität an, die von konzeptionellen Modellen bis hin zu Erdsystemmodellen (ESM) mit verschiedenen Auflösungen reichen. Wir spielen eine führende Rolle bei der Entwicklung des Ozeanmodells ICON-O und des ICON-ESM in seinen Konfigurationen für lange Zeitskalen (RUBY) und für kurze Zeitskalen (SAPPHIRE), einschließlich der anspruchsvollsten sturm- und wirbelauflösenden Modelle mit Gitterweiten im km-Bereich. Durch die Zusammenarbeit im Rahmen des Exzellenzclusters „Klima, Klimawandel und Gesellschaft“ (CLICCS, unter der Leitung der Universität Hamburg) erforscht unsere Gruppe darüber hinaus die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima und Wirtschaft.

Im Folgenden finden Sie eine Auswahl von Forschungsthemen, die die weitreichenden Interessen der Gruppe in den Bereichen Klimavariabilität, Ozeandynamik, Prozessverständnis, Modellentwicklung und Beziehungen zwischen Klima und Wirtschaft widerspiegeln.

Kleinräumige Prozesse, die das globale Klima beeinflussen

Neuartige sturm- und wirbelauflösende gekoppelte Ozean-Atmosphären-Modelle wie das ICON-ESM in seiner Sapphire-Konfiguration mit einer Auflösung von 5 km geben einen noch nie dagewesenen Einblick in Mechanismen, die auf kleinen räumlichen Skalen wirken. Ein Beispiel dafür ist die Bildung von Tiefenwasser in hohen Breiten, die in eng begrenzten Regionen mit einem starken Wärmeverlust vom Ozean an die Atmosphäre verbunden ist, gleichzeitig aber auch ein Teil der globalen Umwälzzirkulation ist. In einer Fallstudie (Gutjahr et al., 2022) dokumentieren wir die Entwicklung eines sehr intensiven Kaltluftausbruchs, eines sogenannten katabatischen Sturms an der Ostküste Grönlands, bei dem dem küstennahen Meer durch einen kalten und starken Fallwind enorme Wärmemengen entzogen werden. Das abgekühlte und damit dichtere Wasser sinkt dann in Tiefen von bis zu 1000 m ab. Die Ergebnisse der Studie legen nahe, dass die Auflösung solcher katabatischen Stürme in globalen Modellen die Lage und Intensität des Absinkens des globalen Förderbandes im subpolaren Nordatlantik beeinflussen könnte. Außerdem können die katabatischen Winde intensive Tiefdruckgebiete, sogenannte „Polartiefs“, auslösen, die über die Arktis ziehen und weit entfernte Regionen wie die Barentssee und Sibirien beeinflussen. Weitere Themen der Gruppe sind tropische Wirbelstürme (Kumar et al., 2022), Mischungsprozesse und Instabilitätswellen in den tropischen Ozeanen (Specht et al., 2021) und deren Wechselwirkung mit der Atmosphäre.

Personen: Juergen Bader, Nils Brüggemann, Swantje Bastin, Oliver Gutjahr, Johann Jungclaus, Arjun Kumar, Katja Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Tim Rohrschneider, Mia-Sophie Specht

Verbindungen zwischen der Arktis und den mittleren Breiten

In der arktischen Region wurde in den letzten Jahrzehnten die schnellste Oberflächenerwärmung weltweit beobachtet. Die Variabilität der Arktis kann das Wetter in entfernten Regionen beeinflussen, aber die Frage, wie und in welchem Ausmaß, ist umstritten. Wir untersuchen die dynamischen Prozesse, die das Wetter in der Arktis mit dem der mittleren Breiten verbinden, und verwenden dabei Klimamodellsimulationen und beobachtungsbasierten Reanalysen. In einer kürzlich erschienenen Publikation (Tyrlis et al., 2019) haben wir die zentrale Rolle der atmosphärischen Blockierung hervorgehoben, wenn Hochdrucksysteme stationär werden und wandernde Zyklone "blockieren" oder umleiten. Im Herbst und Frühwinter 2016-2017 wurden wiederholte Kälteeinbrüche über Eurasien in den mittleren Breiten, außergewöhnlich warme Bedingungen und Meereisverluste über der Arktis sowie eine für die Jahreszeit untypische Abschwächung des stratosphärischen Polarwirbels beobachtet. Atmosphärische Blockaden in der Uralregion spielten eine zentrale Rolle bei der Verknüpfung dieser Dynamik (Abbildung 2). Nach der ungewöhnlich niedrigen Meereisausdehnungin der Ostsibirischen-, der Tschuktschen- und der Beaufortsee im Frühherbst wurden blockierende Antizyklone während des gesamten Herbstes über Eurasien dominant. Wiederkehrenden Blocking-Ereignisse riefen Zirkulationsanomalien hervor, die zu Kaltluftadvektion nach Süden und Warmluftadvektion nach Norden führten. Dies führte im Spätherbst 2016 zu einem noch nie dagewesenen Meereisdefizit in der Barents-Kara-See. Gleichzeitig führten die wiederkehrenden Blocking-Ereignisse zu einer intensiven Aufwärtsbewegung der atmosphärischen Wellenaktivität, die im November zu einer für die Jahreszeit untypischen Abschwächung des stratosphärischen Wirbels führte. Wir konnten zeigen, dass die Auswirkungen dieser Abschwächung auf die Oberfläche mit der Verlagerung der Blockierungsaktivität und der Kältewellen nach Europa im Frühwinter 2017 in Verbindung gebracht werden können.

Personen: Daniela Matei, Jürgen Bader, Quan Liu, Katja Lohmann, Eliza Manzini

Interne Klimavariabilität unter den Bedingungen der globalen Erwärmung und dekadischen Klimavorhersagen

Die natürliche Klimavariabilität umfasst die interne Variabilität, die spontan durch Prozesse und Rückkopplungen innerhalb des Klimasystems entsteht, und von außen erzwungene Variabilität, die beispielsweise durch Veränderungen der Sonnenaktivität und Vulkanausbrüche verursacht wird. Daher ist die interne Variabilität des Klimasystems eine der größten Unsicherheiten bei der Bewertung der aktuellen Klimaschwankungen und der modellgestützten Projektionen künftiger Klimatrends. Wie wirkt sich die globale Erwärmung auf das Ausmaß der internen Klimavariabilität aus? Inwieweit begrenzt die interne Klimavariabilität mehrjährige Vorhersagen des Klimasystems? Um die Auswirkungen des anthropogenen Antriebs auf die interne Klimavariabilität auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen zu untersuchen, verwenden wir Klimamodellsimulationen, die entweder mit der besten Schätzung des aktuellen Zustands des Ozeans und der Atmosphäre (Matei et al., 2012) oder mit einer Reihe von plausiblen Anfangsbedingungen gestartet wurden, um große Ensembles zu erstellen. Insbesondere das MPI Grand Ensemble (Maher et al., 2019) besteht aus einer Vielzahl (bis zu 100) von Modellsimulationen. Sie unterscheiden sich geringfügig in ihren Ausgangsbedingungen, unterliegen aber den gleichen externen Einflüssen, d. h. zunehmenden Treibhausgasen, Vulkanausbrüchen, Landnutzung und Aerosolen. Mit diesen Instrumenten können wir die Unsicherheit durch interne Klimavariabilität für langfristige Projektionen einschränken (Olonscheck und Notz, 2017; Marotzke, 2019; Olonscheck et al., 2021). In einem weiteren Forschungsfeld analysieren wir die Genauigkeit von mittelfristigen Klimaprognosen in Abhängigkeit von Modelleigenschaften wie der numerischen Auflösung. Zum Beispiel untersuchen wir die Vorteile von wirbelauflösenden Ozeankonfigurationen in einer Fallstudie zur Entwicklung eines Kälteereignisses im subpolaren Nordatlantik und der europäischen Hitzewelle im Jahr 2015.

Auch bevor der Mensch einen spürbaren Einfluss auf das Klima ausübte gab es Klimaschwankungen auf allen Zeitskalen. Einige dieser Schwankungen stellen unser Verständnis vor faszinierende Herausforderungen. Zum Beispiel war die Erde vor etwa 700 Millionen Jahren vollständig von Eis und Schnee bedeckt. Wir untersuchen derzeit das Rätsel, wie die Erde aus diesem "Schneeball"-Zustand durch das anschließende Super-Treibhaus in ein gemäßigteres Klima gelangt ist (Ramme und Marotzke, 2022).

Personen: Dirk Olonscheck, Daniela Matei, Jürgen Bader, Oliver Gutjahr, Johann Jungclaus, Quan Liu, Katja Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Lennart Ramme

Klima-Wirtschaft-Wechselwirkungen

Wir wollen verstehen, wie Unsicherheiten und Schwankungen in natürlichen und gesellschaftlichen Prozessen zusammenwirken, indem wir plausiblere Szenarien der Klimazukunft erstellen. Der Klimawandel vollzieht sich über längere Zeiträume, so dass gesellschaftliche Akteure, zum Beispiel aus Politik und Wirtschaft, oft nicht direkt auf aktuelle Klimaereignisse reagieren können. Sie müssen sich auf wissenschaftliche Projektionen und Vorhersagen darüber verlassen, welche Veränderungen durch den Klimawandel wahrscheinlich werden. Diese Vorhersagen müssen auf die Bedürfnisse der Entscheidungsträger*innen zugeschnitten sein. 

So haben wir beispielsweise festgestellt, dass die Begrenzung der Oberflächentemperatur als klimapolitische Maßnahme nicht ausreicht, um den Anstieg des Meeresspiegels – eine der schwerwiegendsten Folgen der globalen Erwärmung – zu kontrollieren. Unter Anwendung eines Klima-Energie-Wirtschaftsmodells mit verbesserter Ozeanphysik haben wir den Meeresspiegel als Klimaziel eingeführt und zeigen, dass das Meeresspiegelziel ein optimales Temperaturüberschreitungsprofil liefert, bei dem ein bestimmtes Klimaziel zunächst überschritten wird, bevor die Temperatur auf dem angestrebten Niveau stabilisiert werden kann (Abb. 3a). Sowohl ein maximales Meeresspiegelziel als auch die Definition einer maximalen Anstiegsrate (Abb. 3b) führen zu geringeren Folgekosten und einer effektiveren langfristigen Stabilisierung des Meeresspiegels (Li et al., 2020).

Personen: Chao Li, Jochem Marotzke

Modellentwicklung

Die Forschungsgruppe des Direktors beteiligt sich an der Entwicklung des Ozeanmodells ICON-O (Korn et al., 2022) und des Erdsystemmodells ICON-ESM (Jungclaus et al., 2022) mit dem Ziel, die neue Generation von ICON-ESM als Standard-Forschungswerkzeug für die experiment-orientierte Forschungsstrategie am Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie bereitzustellen. In Zusammenarbeit mit der MPI-M Arbeitsgruppe Angewandte Mathematik und Computer-basierte Physik sowie der Abteilung Theoretische Ozeanographie der Universität Hamburg liefern wir Beiträge zur Weiterentwicklung von ICON-O durch verbesserte physikalische Parametrisierungen. Im Rahmen von ICON Sapphire erforschen wir die Grenzen der hochauflösenden (weniger als ein Kilometer) Modellierung für die Untersuchung von sub-mesoskaligen Prozessen (Abbildung 4).

Personen: Nils Brüggemann, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Lennart Ramme, Jochem Marotzke

Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Schmidt, H., Brovkin, V., Brüggemann, N., Chegini, F., et al. (2022): The ICON Earth System Model version 1.0. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002813. doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002813

Korn, P., Brüggemann, N., Jungclaus, J.H., Lorenz, S.J., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., et al. (2022): ICON-O: The Ocean Component of the ICON Earth System Model - Global Simulation Characteristics and Local Telescoping Capability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002952. doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002952

Kumar, A. U., Brüggemann, N., Smith, R. K., & Marotzke, J. (2022). Response of a tropical cyclone to a subsurface ocean eddy and the role of boundary layer dynamics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal MeteorologicalSociety, 148(742), 378-402.

Li, C., Held, H., Hokamp, S., & Marotzke, J. (2020). Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target. Science Advances, 6(2), eaaw9490.

Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., … & Marotzke, J. (2019). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11(7), 2050-2069.

Marotzke, J. (2019). Quantifying the irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Wiley InterdisciplinaryReviews: Climate Change, 10, e563.

Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, W. Müller, H. Haak, and J. Marotzke, 2012: Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. Journal ofClimate, 25, 8502–8523.

Olonscheck, D., & Notz, D. (2017). Consistently estimating internal climate variability from climate model simulations. Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9555-9573.

Olonscheck, D., Schurer, A. P., Lücke, L., & Hegerl, G. C. (2021). Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century. Nature Communications, 12(1), 1-10.

Ramme, L., and J. Marotzke, 2022: Climate and ocean circulation in the aftermath of a Marinoan snowball Earth. Climate of the Past, 18, 759-774.

Specht, M. S., Jungclaus, J., & Bader, J. (2021). Identifying and characterizing subsurface tropical instability waves in the Atlantic Ocean in simulations and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(10), e2020JC017013.

Tyrlis, E., Manzini, E., Bader, J., Ukita, J., Nakamura, H., and Matei, D. (2019) Ural Blocking driving extreme Arctic sea-ice loss, cold Eurasia and stratospheric vortex weakening in autumn and early winter 2016-2017. Journal of GeophysicalResearch Atmosphere, 124, 11313– 11329. doi:10.1029/2019JD031085.

Gruppenmitglieder und Publikationen

  • Bishnoi, A., Stein, O., Meyer, C., Redler, R., Eicker, N., Haak, H., Hoffmann, L., Klocke, D., Kornblueh, L. & Suarez, E. (2024). Earth system modeling on modular supercomputing architecture: coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations with ICON 2.6.6-rc. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 261-273. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024 [publisher-version]
  • Ghosh, R., Manzini, E., Gao, Y., Gastineau, G., Cherchi, A., Frankignoul, C., Liang, Y.-C., Kwon, Y.-O., Suo, L., Tyrlis, E., Mecking V, J., Tian, T., Zhang, Y. & Matei, D. (2024). Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern. Environmental Research Letters, 19: 024018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Jin, Y., Köhl, A., Jungclaus, J. & Stammer, D. (2024). Mechanisms of projected sea-level trends and variability in the Southeast Asia region based on MPI-ESM-ER. Climate Dynamics, 62, 973-988. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06960-y [publisher-version]
  • Manzini, E., Ayarzagüena, B., Calvo, N. & Matei, D. (2024). Nonlinearity and asymmetry of the ENSO stratospheric pathway – Revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129: e2023JD039992. doi:10.1029/2023JD039992 [publisher-version]
  • Olonscheck, D. & Rugenstein, M. (2024). Coupled climate models systematically underestimate radiation response to surface warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2023GL106909. doi:10.1029/2023GL106909 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Ramme, L., Ilyina, T. & Marotzke, J. (2024). Moderate greenhouse climate and rapid carbonate formation after Marinoan snowball Earth. Nature Communications, 15: 3571. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47873-6 [publisher-version]
  • Stevens, B., Adami, S., Ali, T., Anzt, H., Aslan, Z., Attinger, S., Bäck, J., Baehr, J., Bauer, P., Bernier, N., Bishop, B., Bockelmann, H., Bony, S., Bouchet, V., Brasseur, G., Bresch, D., Breyer, S., Brunet, G., Buttigieg, P., Cao, J., Castet, C., Cheng, Y., Dey Choudhury, A., Coen, D., Crewell, S., Dabholkar, A., Dai, Q., Doblas-Reyes, F., Durran, D., El Gaidi, A., Ewen, C., Exarchou, E., Eyring, V., Falkinhoff, F., Farrell, D., Forster, P., Frassoni, A., Frauen, C., Fuhrer, O., Gani, S., Gerber, E., Goldfarb, D., Grieger, J., Gruber, N., Hazeleger, W., Herken, R., Hewitt, C., Hoefler, T., Hsu, H.-H., Jacob, D., Jahn, A., Jakob, C., Jung, T., Kadow, C., Kang, I.-S., Kang, S., Kashinath, K., Kleinen-von Königslöw, K., Klocke, D., Kloenne, U., Klöwer, M., Kodama, C., Kollet, S., Kölling, T., Kontkanen, J., Kopp, S., Koran, M., Kulmala, M., Lappalainen, H., Latifi, F., Lawrence, B., Lee, J., Lejeun, Q., Lessig, C., Li, C., Lippert, T., Luterbacher, J., Manninen, P., Marotzke, J., Matsouoka, S., Merchant, C., Messmer, P., Michel, G., Michielsen, K., Miyakawa, T., Müller, J., Munir, R., Narayanasetti, S., Ndiaye, O., Nobre, C., Oberg, A., Oki, R., Özkan-Haller, T., Palmer, T., Posey, S., Prein, A., Primus, O., Pritchard, M., Pullen, J., Putrasahan, D., Quaas, J., Raghavan, K., Ramaswamy, V., Rapp, M., Rauser, F., Reichstein, M., Revi, A., Saluja, S., Satoh, M., Schemann, V., Schemm, S., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Schulthess, T., Senior, C., Shukla, J., Singh, M., Slingo, J., Sobel, A., Solman, S., Spitzer, J., Stier, P., Stocker, T., Strock, S., Su, H., Taalas, P., Taylor, J., Tegtmeier, S., Teutsch, G., Tompkins, A., Ulbrich, U., Vidale, P.-L., Wu, C.-M., Xu, H., Zaki, N., Zanna, L., Zhou, T. & Ziemen, F. (in press). Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE). Earth System Science Data, 16, 2113-2122. doi:10.5194/essd-2023-376 [publisher-version]
  • van Dijk, E., Jungclaus, J., Sigl, M., Timmreck, C. & Krüger, K. (2024). High-frequency climate forcing causes prolonged cold periods in the Holocene. Communications Earth & Environment, 5: 242. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01380-0 [publisher-version]
  • Wallberg, L., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Matei, D. & Müller, W. (2024). Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1-14. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Zhang, W., Clark, R., Zhou, T., Li, L., Li, C., Rivera, J., Zhang, L., Gui, K., Zhang, T., Li, L., Pan, R., Chen, Y., Tang, S., Huang, X. & Hu, S. (2024). 2023: Weather and climate extremes hitting the globe with emerging features. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. doi:10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3 [publisher-version]
  • Akperov, M., Eliseev, A., Rinke, A., Mokhov, l., Semenov, V., Dembitskaya, M., Matthes, H., Adakudlu, M., Boberg, F., Christensen, J., Dethloff, K., Fettweis, X., Gutjahr, O., Heinemann, G., Koenigk, T., Sein, D., Laprise, R., Mottram, R., Nikiéma, O., Soþolowski, S., Winger, K. & Zhang, W. (2023). Future project¡ons of wind energy potentials in the Arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX). Anthropocene, 44: 100402 .
  • Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Jézéquel, A., Lehner, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. & Zscheischler, J. (2023). Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations. Nature Communications, 14: 2145. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5 [publisher-version]
  • Crétat, J., Harrison, S., Braconnot, P., d’Agostino, R., Jungclaus, J., Lohmann, G., Shi, X. & Marti, O. (2023). Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-07023-y
  • Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (Eds.). (2023). Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - Social drivers and physical processes. Hamburg: Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). doi:10.25592/uhhfdm.11230 [publisher-version]
  • Engels, A. & Marotzke, J. (2023). Assessing the plausibility of climate futures. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 011006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaf90 [publisher-version]
  • Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gonçalves Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (2023). Implications of the plausibility assessments for climate futures. In Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gonçalves Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (Eds.), Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes (pp.70-71). Hamburg: Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). [publisher-version]
  • Essell, H., Krusic, P., Esper, J., Wagner, S., Braconnot, P., Jungclaus, J., Muschitiello, F., Oppenheimer, C. & Büntgen, U. (2023). A frequency-optimized temperature record for the Holocene. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 114022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0065 [publisher-version]
  • Essell, H., Krusic, P., Esper, J., Wagner, S., Braconnot, P., Jungclaus, J., Muschitiello, F., Oppenheimer, C. & Büntgen, U. (2023). A frequency-optimised temperature record for the Holocene. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 114022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0065 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][research-data][research-data]
  • Fang, S.-W., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., Jungclaus, J., Zanchettin, D. & Timmreck, C. (2023). The role of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in the early 19th century climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 50: e2023GL105307. doi:10.1029/2023GL105307 [publisher-version]
  • Gastineau, G., Frankignoul, C., Gao, Y., Liang, Y.-C., Kwon, Y.-O., Cherchi, A., Ghosh, R., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mecking, J., Suo, L., Tian, T., Yang, S. & Zhang, Y. (2023). Forcing and impact of the northern hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979-2014. The Cryosphere, 17, 2157-2184. doi:10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Ghosh, R., Putrasahan, D., Manzini, E., Lohmann, K., Keil, P., Hand, R., Bader, J., Matei, D. & Jungclaus, J. (2023). Two distinct phases of North Atlantic eastern subpolar gyre and warming hole evolution under global warming. Journal of Climate, 36, 1881-1894. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0222.1 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Gutjahr, O. & Mehlmann, C. (2023). Polar lows and their effects on sea ice and the upper ocean in the Iceland, Greenland and Labrador Seas. In review for JGR-C. essoar. doi:10.22541/essoar.169168927.73440410/v1 [supplementary-material]
  • Hohenegger, C., Korn, P., Linardakis, L., Redler, R., Schnur, R., Adamidis, P., Bao, J., Bastin, S., Behravesh, M., Bergemann, M., Biercamp, J., Bockelmann, H., Brokopf, R., Brüggemann, N., Casaroli, L., Chegini, F., Datseris, G., Esch, M., George, G., Giorgetta, M., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Hanke, M., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jungclaus, J., Kern, M., Klocke, D., Kluft, L., Kölling, T., Kornblueh, L., Kosukhin, S., Kroll, C., Lee, J., Mauritsen, T., Mehlmann, C., Mieslinger, T., Naumann, A., Paccini, L., Peinado, A., Praturi, D., Putrasahan, D., Rast, S., Riddick, T., Roeber, N., Schmidt, H., Schulzweida, U., Schütte, F., Segura, H., Shevchenko, R., Singh, V., Specht, M., Stephan, C., von Storch, J., Vogel, R., Wengel, C., Winkler, M., Ziemen, F., Marotzke, J. & Stevens, B. (2023). ICON-Sapphire: simulating the components of the Earth System and their interactions at kilometer and subkilometer scales. Geoscientific Model Development, 16, 779-811. doi:10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023 [publisher-version]
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  • von Storch, J.-S., Botzet, M. & Ehlert, I. (2008). What balances the decrease in net upward thermal radiation at the surface in climate change experiments?. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 79-90. doi:10.2174/1874282300802010079. [publisher-version]
  • Wu, P., Haak, H., Wood, R., Jungclaus, J. & Furevik, T. (2008). Simulating the terms in the Arctic hydrological budget. In Dickson, R., Meincke, J. & Rhines, P. (Eds.), Arctic-subarctic ocean fluxes (pp.363-384). Dordrecht: Springer.
  • Zhu, X. & Jungclaus, J. (2008). Interdecadal variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation as an ocean internal mode. Climate Dynamics, 31, 731-741. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0383-9
  • Baehr, J., Haak, H., Alderson, S., Cunningham, S., Jungclaus, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Timely detection of changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26° N in the Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 20, 5827-5841. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1686.1 [publisher-version]
  • Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K., Esch, M., Keenlyside, N., Kornblueh, L., Lu, J. & Yamagata, T. (2007). How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate ?. Tellus Series A, 59, 539-561. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00251.x [publisher-version]
  • Cunningham, S., Kanzow, T., Rayner, D., Baringer, M., Johns, W., Marotzke, J., Longworth, H., Grant, E., Hirschi, J., Beal, L., Meinen, C. & Bryden, H. (2007). Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturnung circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 317(5840), 935-938. doi:10.1126/science.1141304
  • Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Reconstructing the meridional overturning circulation from boundary densities and the zonal wind stress. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(3), 743-763. doi:10.1175/JPO3019.1 [publisher-version]
  • Jungclaus, J., Baehr, J., Haak, H., Jacob, D., Königk, T. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Die Stabilität der atlantischen Umwälzbewegung. Jahrbuch / Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, 2006. [publisher-version]
  • Kanzow, T., Cunningham, S., Rayner, D., Hirschi, J., Johns, W., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Beal, L., Meinen, C. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Observed flow compensation associated with the MOC at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic. Science, 317(5840): 941. doi:10.1126/science.1141293
  • Koenigk, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Haak, H. & Jungclaus, J. (2007). Arctic freshwater export and its impact on climate in the 20th and 21st. century. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, 112: G04S41. doi:10.1029/2006JG000274 [publisher-version]
  • Landerer, F., Jungclaus, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A 1B scenario. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 296-312. doi:10.1175/JPO3013.1 [publisher-version]
  • Landerer, F., Jungclaus, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Ocean bottom pressure changes lead to a decreasing length-of-day in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(6): L06307. doi:10.1029/2006GL029106 [publisher-version]
  • Lohmann, K. & Latif, M. (2007). Influence of El Niño on the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20, 5012-5018. doi:10.1175/JCLI4292.1
  • Marotzke, J. & Botzet, M. (2007). Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L16704. doi:10.1029/2006GL028880 [publisher-version]
  • Marotzke, J. (2007). Wie viel Forschung braucht der Klimaschutz?. In Müller, M. (Eds.), Der UN-Weltklimareport: Berichte über eine unaufhaltsame Katastrophe (pp.401-405). Köln: Kiepenheuer und Witsch.
  • Matei, D. (2007). Pacific decadal variability: internal variability and sensitivity to subtropics. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 44. doi:10.17617/2.994355 [publisher-version]
  • Mikolajewicz, U., Vizcaino, M., Jungclaus, J. & Schurgers, G. (2007). Effect of ice sheet interactions in anthropogenic climate change simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L18706. doi:10.1029/2007GL031173 [publisher-version]
  • Palmer, M., Garabato, A., Stark, J., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). The influence of diapycnal mixing on quasi-steady overturning states in the Indian Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(9), 2290-2304. doi:10.1175/JPO3117.1 [publisher-version]
  • Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P. & Jungclaus, J. (2007). Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate - carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century ?. Climate Dynamics, 29, 565-574. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8
  • Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S., Clement, A., Dong, B., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Renold, M., Stocker, T., Stouffer, R., Sutton, R., Xie, S. & Yin, J. (2007). The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4899-4019. doi:10.1175/JCLI4283.1 [publisher-version]
  • von Storch, J.-S., Sasaki, H. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Wind-generated power input to the deep ocean: An estimate using a (1)/(10)degrees general circulation model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 657-672. doi:10.1175/JPO3001.1 [publisher-version]
  • Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. & Terray, L. (2006). Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study. Journal of Climate, 19(7), 1195-1203. doi:10.1175/JCLI3654.1 [publisher-version]
  • De Coetlogon, G., Frankignoul, C., Bentsen, M., Delon, C., Haak, H., Masina, S. & Pardaens, A. (2006). Gulf stream variability in five oceanic general circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36(11), 2119-2135. [publisher-version]
  • Giorgetta, M., Brasseur, G., Roeckner, E. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Preface to Special Section on Climate Models at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Journal of Climate, 19, 3769-3770. doi:10.1175/JCLI9023.1 [publisher-version]
  • Gorbunov, M., Lauritsen, K., Rhodin, A., Tomassini, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2006). Radio holographic filtering, error estimation, and quality control of radio occultation data. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 111(D10): D10105. doi:10.1029/2005JD006427 [publisher-version]
  • Granier, C., Niemeier, U., Jungclaus, J., Emmons, L., Hess, P., Lamarque, J., Walters, S. & Brasseur, G. (2006). Ozone pollution from future ship traffic in the Arctic northern passages. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: 13807. doi:10.1029/2006GL026180 [publisher-version]
  • Gurvich, A., Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2006). Comparison between refraction angles measured in the Microlab-1 experiment and calculated on the basis of an atmospheric general circulation model. Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 42, 709-714. doi:10.1134/S0001433806060053
  • Jungclaus, J., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Keenlyside, N., Luo, J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Roeckner, E. (2006). Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Journal of Climate, 19, 3952-3972. doi:10.1175/JCLI3827.1 [publisher-version]
  • Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Esch, M., Roeckner, E. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation ?. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L17708. doi:10.1029/2006GL026815 [publisher-version]
  • Koenigk, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Haak, H. & Jungclaus, J. (2006). Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 26, 17-34. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0060-1
  • Latif, M., Collins, M., Pohlmann, H. & Keenlyside, N. (2006). A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. Journal of Climate, 19, 5971-5987. [publisher-version]
  • Lucas, M., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2006). The scaling of the meridional overturning with the meridional temperature gradient in idealised general circulation models. Ocean Modelling, 13(3-4), 306-318. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.03.001
  • Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Kornblueh, L. & Roeckner, E. (2006). The influence of sea surface temperatures o the Northern winter stratosphere: Ensemble simulations with the MAECHAM5 model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3863-3881. doi:10.1175/JCLI3826.1 [publisher-version]
  • Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Koenigk, T. (2006). Ozeanzirkulation und arktisches Meereis unter dem Einfluss anthropogener Klimaänderungen. In Lozán, J., Graßl, H., Hubberten, H.-W., Hupfer, P., Karbe, L. & Piepenburg, a. (Eds.), Warnsignale aus den Polarregionen (pp.237-242). Hamburg: Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen. [publisher-version]
  • Milinski, M., Semmann, D., Krambeck, H.-J. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Stabilizing the Earth's climate is not a losing game: Supporting evidence from public goods experiments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(11), 3994-3998. doi:10.1073/pnas.0504902103 [publisher-version]
  • Mu, L., Wu, D., Chen, X. & Jungclaus, J. (2006). Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(21), 2651-2656. doi:10.1007/s11434-006-2161-6
  • Mueller, W. & Roeckner, E. (2006). ENSO impact on midlatitude circulation patterns in future climate change projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L05711. doi:10.1029/2005GL025032 [publisher-version]
  • Niemeier, U., Granier, C., Kornblueh, L., Walters, S. & Brasseur, G. (2006). Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111(9): D09301. doi:10.1029/2005JD006407 [publisher-version]
  • Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U. & Schulzweida, U. (2006). Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3771-3791. doi:10.1175/JCLI3824.1 [publisher-version]
  • Roeckner, E., Brasseur, G., Giorgetta, M., Jacob, D., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. & Sillmann, J. (2006). Klimaprojektionen für das 21. Jahrhundert. [publisher-version]
  • Roeckner, E., Brasseur, G., Giorgetta, M., Jacob, D., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. & Sillmann, J. (2006). Climate projections for the 21st century. [publisher-version]
  • Smith, R., Dubois, C. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 19(18), 4719-4737. doi:10.1175/JCLI3874.1 [publisher-version]
  • Stouffer, R., Yin, J., Gregpry, J., Dixon, K., Spelman, M., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A., Ebyd, M., Flato, G., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, G., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W., Robitaille, D., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G. & Weber, S. (2006). Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and present future climate changes. Journal of Climate, 19(8), 1365-1387. [publisher-version]
  • Wetzel, P., Maier-Reimer, E., Botzet, M., Jungclaus, J., Keenlyside, N. & Latif, M. (2006). Effects of ocean biology on the penetrative radiation in a coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3973-3987. doi:10.1175/JCLI3828.1 [publisher-version]
  • Baquero Bernal, A. (2005). Interannual climate variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean: A study with a hierarchy of coupled general circulation models. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 8. doi:10.17617/2.994968 [publisher-version]
  • Bonaventura, L., Kornblueh, L., Heinze, T. & Ripodas, P. (2005). A semi-implicit method conserving mass and potential vorticity for the shallow water equations on the sphere. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 47(8-9), 863-869. doi:10.1002/fld.857
  • Gorbunov, M., Lauritsen, K., Rodin, A., Tomassini, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2005). Analysis of the CHAMP experimental data on radio-occultation sounding of the Earth's atmosphere. Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 41, 726-740. [publisher-version]
  • Gregory, J., Dixon, K., Stouffer, R., Weaver, A., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. & Thorpe, R. (2005). A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(12): L12703. doi:10.1029/2005GL023209 [publisher-version]
  • Jacob, D., Goettel, H., Jungclaus, J., Muskulus, M., Podzun, R. & Marotzke, J. (2005). Slowdown of the thermohaline circulation causes enhanced maritime climate influence and snow cover over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(21): L21711. doi:10.1029/2005GL023286 [publisher-version]
  • Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Latif, M. & Mikolajewicz, U. (2005). Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 18(19), 4013-4031. [publisher-version]
  • Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Botzet, M., Jungclaus, J. & Schulzweida, U. (2005). A coupled method for initializing El Nino Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57(3), 340-356. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00107.x [publisher-version]
  • Lohmann, K. & Latif, M. (2005). Tropical Pacific decadal variability and the subtropical-tropical cells. Journal of Climate, 18(23), 5163-5178. doi:10.1175/JCLI3559.1 [publisher-version]
  • Lohmann, K. (2005). Tropical Pacific/Atlantic climate variability and the subtropical-tropical cells. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 11. doi:10.17617/2.994953 [publisher-version]
  • Longworth, H., Marotzke, J. & Stocker, T. (2005). Ocean gyres and abrupt change in the thermohaline circulation: A conceptual analysis. Journal of Climate, 18(13), 2403-2416. doi:10.1175/JCLI3397.1 [publisher-version]
  • Lucas, M., Hirschi, J., Stark, J. & Marotzke, J. (2005). The response of an idealized ocean basin to variable buoyancy forcing. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 35(5), 601-615. doi:10.1175/JPO2710.1 [publisher-version]
  • Baehr, J., Hirschi, J., Beismann, J. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Monitoring the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic: A model-based array design study. Journal of Marine Research, 62(3), 283-312. doi:10.1357/0022240041446191
  • Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A., Drange, H., Pardaens, A., Terray, L. & Sutton, R. (2004). An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 22(4), 373-388. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0388-3
  • Gurvich, A., Fedorova, O. & Kornblueh, L. (2004). Effect of the vertical gradients of temperature and wind velocity in the stratosphere on phase fluctuations in radio occultation measurements. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 40, 134-141.
  • Haak, H. (2004). Simulation of low-frequency climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 1. doi:10.17617/2.995124 [publisher-version]
  • Klinger, B., Drijfhout, S., Marotzke, J. & Scott, J. (2004). Remote wind-driven overturning in the absence of the Drake Passage effect. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34(5), 1036-1049. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1036:RWOITA>2.0.CO;2 [publisher-version]
  • Latif, M., Roeckner, E., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Jungclaus, J., Legutke, S., Marsland, S., Mikolajewicz, U. & Mitchell, J. (2004). Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 17, 1605-1614. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:RMAPMC>2.0.CO;2 [publisher-version]
  • Mikolajewicz, U., Groeger, M., Marotzke, J., Schurgers , G. & Vizcaíno , M. (2004). Die Simulation von Eiszeitzyklen mit einem komplexen Erdsystemmodell. Jahrbuch / Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, 2004, 439-443. [publisher-version]
  • Palmer, M., Bryden, H., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Observed changes in the South Indian Ocean gyre circulation, 1987-2002. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(15): L15303. doi:10.1029/2004GL020506 [publisher-version]
  • Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M., Roesch, A., Wild, M. & Tschuck, P. (2004). Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. Journal of Climate, 17(22), 4463-4472. doi:doi: 10.1175/3209.1 [publisher-version]
  • Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U. & Schulzweida, U. (2004). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 Part II: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 354. [publisher-version]
  • Smith, R., Dubois, C. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Ocean circulation and climate in an idealised Pangean OAGCM. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(18): L18207. doi:10.1029/2004GL020643 [publisher-version]
  • Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2003). Analysis and validation of challenging minisatellite payload (CHAMP) radio occultation data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108: 4584. doi:10.1029/2002JD003175 [publisher-version]
  • Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2003). Principles of variational assimilation of GNSS radio occultation data. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 350. [publisher-version]
  • Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Latif, M. (2003). Formation and propagation of great salinity anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(9), 26-1-26-4: 1473. doi:10.1029/2003GL017065 [publisher-version]
  • Marsland, S., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Latif, M. & Röske, F. (2003). The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling, 5(2), 91-127. doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X
  • Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U. & Tompkins, A. (2003). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 349. [publisher-version]

Kontakt

Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Direktor
Tel: +49 (0)40 41173-440
jochem.marotzke@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de


Dr. Johann Jungclaus

Gruppenleiter
Tel: +49 (0)40 41173-109
johann.jungclaus@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

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