Director’s Research Group
Large-scale ocean dynamics and ocean-atmosphere interactions play a fundamental role in global and regional climate, and influence the trajectory of climate change. Ocean currents redistribute heat, fresh water, and substances such as CO2. The relatively slow time-scales and the buffering capacity make the ocean the fly-wheel of the climate system.
The Director’s Research Group investigates the dynamics and impacts of large-scale ocean variability under various climate background conditions and under global warming. We focus on understanding mechanisms that relate ocean and atmosphere variations on sub-daily to centennial time-scales. Our group applies theory and model systems of various complexity ranging from conceptual models to Earth System Models (ESMs) at various resolutions. We take a leading role in the development of the ICON-O ocean model and the ICON-ESM in its configurations for long time scales (RUBY) and short time scales (SAPPHIRE), including the most sophisticated storm- and eddy-resolving models at km-scale resolution. Through collaboration through the Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (led by Universität Hamburg), our group furthermore performs research on climate–economy interactions.
Below is a selection of research themes reflecting the group’s wide-ranging interests in ocean dynamics, process understanding, model development, and climate-economy relations.
Small-scale processes affecting global climate
New storm- and eddy-resolving coupled ocean atmosphere models, such as the ICON-ESM at 5 km resolution, provide unprecedented insight into mechanisms working on small spatial scales. An example is deep water formation at high latitudes, which is associated with strong heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in very limited regions, but which is also part of the global ocean’s conveyor circulation. In a case study (Gutjahr et al., 2022), we document the evolution of a very intense cold-air outbreak, a so-called katabatic storm at the eastern coast of Greenland, where enormous amounts of heat are extracted from the sea near the coast through a cold and heavy downdraft wind. The cooled and thus denser water then sinks to depths of up to 1000 m. These results suggest that resolving such katabatic storms in global models could affect the location and intensity of the sinking of the global conveyor belt in the subpolar North Atlantic. Moreover, the katabatic winds can trigger the formation of intense cyclones, so-called “polar lows” that travel through the Arctic and influence remote regions like the Barents Sea and Siberia. Other topics the group investigates include tropical cyclones (Kumar et al., 2022), mixing processes and instability waves in the tropical oceans (Specht et al., 2021) and their interaction with the atmosphere.
People: Juergen Bader, Nils Brüggemann, Swantje Bastin, Oliver Gutjahr, Johann Jungclaus, Arjun Kumar, Katja Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Tim Rohrschneider, Mia-Sophie Specht
Arctic mid-latitude linkages
The Arctic region has undergone the most rapid surface warming observed globally in recent decades. Arctic variability may be important for influencing mid-latitude weather, but the question how and how much is under debate.
We investigate dynamical processes linking the Arctic to midlatitude weather and climate in climate model simulations and observation-based reanalyses. In a recent publication (Tyrlis et al., 2019), we highlighted the central role of atmospheric blocking, when high-pressure systems become stationary and "block" or redirect migratory cyclones, in linking Arctic-midlatitude dynamics: During autumn and early winter 2016-2017, repeated cold surges over mid-latitude Eurasia, exceptionally warm conditions and sea ice loss over the Arctic, and an unseasonable weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex were observed. Atmospheric blocking occurring in the Ural region played a central role in linking such extreme dynamics (Figure 2). Following abnormally low sea ice in the East Siberia, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in early autumn, atmospheric blocking anticyclones became dominant over Eurasia throughout autumn. The dynamical feedback provided by the recurrent blocking events, inducing circulation anomalies that resulted in cold air advection to their south and warm advection to their north (Figure 1, arrows 3,4), led to unprecedented levels of sea ice deficit in the Barents-Kara Seas in late autumn 2016. The sea ice cover minimum over the Barents-Kara Seas in 2016 was indeed observed in mid-November and December shortly after the two strongest atmospheric blocking episodes. At the same time, the recurrent blocking events drove an intense upward flux of atmospheric wave activity that resulted in unseasonable weakening of the stratospheric vortex in November (Figure 2, arrows 5,6). We were able to show that the surface impact of this weakening can be linked to the migration of the blocking activity and cold spells toward Europe in early winter 2017.
People: Daniela Matei, Juergen Bader, Quan Liu., Katja Lohmann, Eliza Manzini
Internal climate variability under global warming and decadal-scale climate predictions
Natural climate variability encompasses internal variability — spontaneously generated by processes and feedbacks within the climate system — and externally forced variability — caused, for example, by changes in solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Hence, the internal variability of the climate system is one of the largest uncertainties in the evaluation of current climate variations and the model-based projections of future climate trends. How does global warming impact the magnitude of internal climate variability? To what extent does internal climate variability limit multi-year forecasts of the climate system? To investigate the impact of anthropogenic forcing on internal climate variability on different time scales, we use climate model simulations either started with the best-guess of the current state of the ocean and atmosphere (Matei et al., 2012), or started with a range of plausible initial conditions to create large ensembles. In particular, the MPI Grand Ensemble (Maher et al., 2019) consists of a multitude (up to 100) of model simulations. They slightly differ in their initial conditions but are subject to the same external forcings, i.e., increasing greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, land use and aerosols. These tools allow us to constrain the uncertainty from intrinsic climate variability for long-term projections (Olonscheck and Notz, 2017; Marotzke, 2019; Olonscheck et al., 2021). Furthermore, we estimate the accuracy of climate forecasts in relation with the models’ limitations. For example, we investigate the benefits of eddy-resolving ocean configurations in a case study on the co-evolution of a cold event in the sub-polar North Atlantic and the European heat wave in 2015.
Climate has always fluctuated, even before humans began to have a noticeable influence. Some of these fluctuations provide fascinating challenges to our understanding. For example, about 700 million years ago the Earth was entirely covered by ice and snow. We are currently investigating the enigma of how the Earth made it out of this “Snowball” state, through the ensuing super-greenhouse into more moderate climates afterwards (Ramme and Marotzke, 2022).
People: Dirk Olonscheck, Daniela Matei, Oliver Gutjahr, Johann Jungclaus, Katja Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Lennart Ramme
Climate economy interactions
We aim to understand how uncertainties and variabilities in natural and social processes interact; we do so by generating more plausible scenarios of climate futures. Climate change occurs over longer periods of time, and, as a result, social actors, for example from politics and business, are often unable to directly react to actual climate events. They have to rely on scientific predictions as to which changes are likely under climate change. These predictions, to be actionable, have to be tailored to the needs of decision makers.
As an example, we found that limiting surface temperature as a climate policy action is insufficient to control sea-level rise — one of the major severe consequences associated with global warming. Applying a climate–energy–economy model with improved ocean physics we have introduced sea level as a climate target and show that the sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile, where a given climate target will first be exceeded before the temperature can be stabilized at the targeted level. Both, a maximum sea-level change target and a maximum sea-level-change rate target (blue lines in Figure 3 a,b) result in lower consumption loss (Figure 3b) and more effective long-term sea level stabilization (Li et al., 2020).
People: Chao Li, Jochem Marotzke
Model development and support
The Director’s group participates in the development of the ICON-O ocean model (Korn et al., 2022) and the Earth System Model ICON-ESM (Jungclaus et al., 2022) with the goal of providing the new-generation ICON-ESM as the standard research tool for the experiment-driven science strategy at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. We contribute to the further development through improved parameterizations on ICON-O in collaboration with the Applied Mathematics and Computational Physics group and the Theoretical Oceanography department of Universität Hamburg. Within the framework of the short time-scale ICON (Sapphire) configuration, we are exploring the frontier of high-resolution (less than one kilometer) modeling for the investigation of sub-mesoscale processes (Figure 4).
People: Nils Brüggemann, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Lennart Ramme, Jochem Marotzke
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Schmidt, H., Brovkin, V., Brüggemann, N., Chegini, F., et al. (2022): The ICON Earth System Model version 1.0. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002813. doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002813
Korn, P., Brüggemann, N., Jungclaus, J.H., Lorenz, S.J., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., et al. (2022): ICON-O: The Ocean Component of the ICON Earth System Model - Global Simulation Characteristics and Local Telescoping Capability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002952. doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002952
Kumar, A. U., Brüggemann, N., Smith, R. K., & Marotzke, J. (2022). Response of a tropical cyclone to a subsurface ocean eddy and the role of boundary layer dynamics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal MeteorologicalSociety, 148(742), 378-402.
Li, C., Held, H., Hokamp, S., & Marotzke, J. (2020). Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target. Science Advances, 6(2), eaaw9490.
Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., … & Marotzke, J. (2019). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11(7), 2050-2069.
Marotzke, J. (2019). Quantifying the irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Wiley InterdisciplinaryReviews: Climate Change, 10, e563.
Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, W. Müller, H. Haak, and J. Marotzke, 2012: Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. Journal ofClimate, 25, 8502–8523.
Olonscheck, D., & Notz, D. (2017). Consistently estimating internal climate variability from climate model simulations. Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9555-9573.
Olonscheck, D., Schurer, A. P., Lücke, L., & Hegerl, G. C. (2021). Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century. Nature Communications, 12(1), 1-10.
Ramme, L., and J. Marotzke, 2022: Climate and ocean circulation in the aftermath of a Marinoan snowball Earth. Climate of the Past, 18, 759-774.
Specht, M. S., Jungclaus, J., & Bader, J. (2021). Identifying and characterizing subsurface tropical instability waves in the Atlantic Ocean in simulations and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(10), e2020JC017013.
Tyrlis, E., Manzini, E., Bader, J., Ukita, J., Nakamura, H., and Matei, D. (2019) Ural Blocking driving extreme Arctic sea-ice loss, cold Eurasia and stratospheric vortex weakening in autumn and early winter 2016-2017. Journal of GeophysicalResearch Atmosphere, 124, 11313– 11329. doi:10.1029/2019JD031085.
Group members and publications
- Bastin, S., Koldunov, A., Schütte, F., Gutjahr, O., Mrozowska, M., Fischer, T., Shevchenko, R., Kumar, A., Koldunov, N., Haak, H., Brüggemann, N., Hummels, R., Specht, M., Jungclaus, J., Danilov, S., Dengler, M. & Jochum, M. (2024). Sensitivity of the tropical Atlantic to vertical mixing in two ocean models (ICON-O v2.6.6 and FESOM v2.5) (open for discussions). doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-2281 [Preprint] [pre-print]
- Bishnoi, A., Stein, O., Meyer, C., Redler, R., Eicker, N., Haak, H., Hoffmann, L., Klocke, D., Kornblueh, L. & Suarez, E. (2024). Earth system modeling on modular supercomputing architecture: coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations with ICON 2.6.6-rc. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 261-273. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024 [publisher-version]
- Brüggemann, N., Losch, M., Scholz, P., Pollmann, F., Danilov, S., Gutjahr, O., Jungclaus, J., Koldunov, N., Korn, P., Olbers, D. & Eden, C. (2024). Parameterized internal wave mixing in three ocean general circulation models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16: e2023MS003768. doi:10.1029/2023MS003768 [research-data][publisher-version]
- Di Capua, G., Tyrlis, E., Matei, D. & Donner, R. (2024). Tropical and mid-latitude causal drivers of the eastern Mediterranean Etesians during boreal summer. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-024-07411-y [publisher-version]
- García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J., Melo-Aguilar, C., Steinert, N., García-Bustamante, E., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Hagemann, S., Cuesta-Valero, F., García-García, A. & Beltrami, H. (2024). First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources. Under open review for Earth System Dynamics. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 547-564. doi:10.5194/esd-15-547-2024 [publisher-version]
- Ghosh, R., Manzini, E., Gao, Y., Gastineau, G., Cherchi, A., Frankignoul, C., Liang, Y.-C., Kwon, Y.-O., Suo, L., Tyrlis, E., Mecking V, J., Tian, T., Zhang, Y. & Matei, D. (2024). Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern. Environmental Research Letters, 19: 024018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Gutjahr, O. & Mehlmann, C. (2024). Polar lows and their effects on sea ice and the upper ocean in the Iceland, Greenland and Labrador Seas. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129: e2023JC020258. doi:10.1029/2023JC020258 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
- Jin, Y., Köhl, A., Jungclaus, J. & Stammer, D. (2024). Mechanisms of projected sea-level trends and variability in the Southeast Asia region based on MPI-ESM-ER. Climate Dynamics, 62, 973-988. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06960-y [publisher-version]
- Karpechko, A., Wu, Z., Simpson, I., Kretschmer, M., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Butler, A., Domeisen, D., Garny, H., Lawrence, Z., Manzini, E. & Sigmond, M. (2024). Northern hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere circulation change in CMIP6 models: 2. mechanisms and sources of the spread. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129: e2024JD040823.. doi:10.1029/2024JD040823 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Li, D., Zhou, T., Qi, Y., Zou, L., Li, C., Zhang, W. & Chen, X. (2024). Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 24, 7347-7358. doi:10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024 [publisher-version]
- Liu, W., Li, S., Li, C., Rugenstein, M. & Thomas, A. (2024). Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming. Nature Climate Change, 14, 732-739. doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02034-x
- Lott, F., Rani, R., McLandress, C., Podglajen, A., Bushell, A., Bramberger, M., Lee, H.-K., Alexander, J., Anstey, J., Chun, H.-Y., Hertzog, A., Kim, Y.-H., Kawatani, Y., Legras, B., Manzini, E., Naoe, H., Osprey, S., Plougonven, R., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J., Scinocca, J., Serrano, J., Serva, F., Stockdale, T., Versick, S., Watanabe, S. & Yoshida, K. (2024). Comparison between non-orographic gravity-wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant-level balloons. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi:10.1002/qj.4793 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Manzini, E., Ayarzagüena, B., Calvo, N. & Matei, D. (2024). Nonlinearity and asymmetry of the ENSO stratospheric pathway – Revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129: e2023JD039992. doi:10.1029/2023JD039992 [publisher-version]
- Mrozowska, M., Jochum, M., Bastin, S., Hummels, R., Koldunov, A., Dengler, M., Fischer, T., Nuterman, R. & Hansen, R. (2024). Using NIW observations to assess mixed layer parameterizations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129: e2024JC020985. doi:10.1029/2024JC020985
- Olonscheck, D. & Rugenstein, M. (2024). Coupled climate models systematically underestimate radiation response to surface warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2023GL106909. doi:10.1029/2023GL106909 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
- Proske, U., Brüggemann, N., Gärtner, J., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Putrasahan, D. & Wieners, K.-H. (2024). A case for open communication of bugs in climate models, made with ICON version 2024.01. EGUsphere, . doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-3493 [Preprint] [pre-print]
- Ramme, L., Ilyina, T. & Marotzke, J. (2024). Moderate greenhouse climate and rapid carbonate formation after Marinoan snowball Earth. Nature Communications, 15: 3571. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47873-6 [publisher-version]
- Ritschel, M. (2024). A transforming Arctic: unraveling climate change impacts on sea-ice evolution and oceanic pCO2. Phd Thesis, Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 281. [publisher-version]
- Song, J., Song, F., Feng, Z., Leung, L., Li, C. & Wu, L. (2024). Realistic precipitation diurnal cycle in global convection-permitting models by resolving mesoscale convective systems. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2024GL109945. doi:10.1029/2024GL109945 [publisher-version]
- Specht, M., Jungclaus, J. & Bader, J. (in press). Seasonality of subsurface shear instabilities at tropical instability wave fronts in the Atlantic Ocean in a high-resolution simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129: e2023JC020041. doi:10.1029/2023JC020041 [research-data][publisher-version]
- Steinert, N., Cuesta‐Valero, F., García‐Pereira, F., de Vrese, P., Melo Aguilar, C., García‐Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. & González‐Rouco, J. (2024). Underestimated land heat uptake alters the global energy distribution in CMIP6 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 51: e2023GL107613. doi:10.1029/2023GL107613 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Stevens, B., Adami, S., Ali, T., Anzt, H., Aslan, Z., Attinger, S., Bäck, J., Baehr, J., Bauer, P., Bernier, N., Bishop, B., Bockelmann, H., Bony, S., Bouchet, V., Brasseur, G., Bresch, D., Breyer, S., Brunet, G., Buttigieg, P., Cao, J., Castet, C., Cheng, Y., Dey Choudhury, A., Coen, D., Crewell, S., Dabholkar, A., Dai, Q., Doblas-Reyes, F., Durran, D., El Gaidi, A., Ewen, C., Exarchou, E., Eyring, V., Falkinhoff, F., Farrell, D., Forster, P., Frassoni, A., Frauen, C., Fuhrer, O., Gani, S., Gerber, E., Goldfarb, D., Grieger, J., Gruber, N., Hazeleger, W., Herken, R., Hewitt, C., Hoefler, T., Hsu, H.-H., Jacob, D., Jahn, A., Jakob, C., Jung, T., Kadow, C., Kang, I.-S., Kang, S., Kashinath, K., Kleinen-von Königslöw, K., Klocke, D., Kloenne, U., Klöwer, M., Kodama, C., Kollet, S., Kölling, T., Kontkanen, J., Kopp, S., Koran, M., Kulmala, M., Lappalainen, H., Latifi, F., Lawrence, B., Lee, J., Lejeun, Q., Lessig, C., Li, C., Lippert, T., Luterbacher, J., Manninen, P., Marotzke, J., Matsouoka, S., Merchant, C., Messmer, P., Michel, G., Michielsen, K., Miyakawa, T., Müller, J., Munir, R., Narayanasetti, S., Ndiaye, O., Nobre, C., Oberg, A., Oki, R., Özkan-Haller, T., Palmer, T., Posey, S., Prein, A., Primus, O., Pritchard, M., Pullen, J., Putrasahan, D., Quaas, J., Raghavan, K., Ramaswamy, V., Rapp, M., Rauser, F., Reichstein, M., Revi, A., Saluja, S., Satoh, M., Schemann, V., Schemm, S., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Schulthess, T., Senior, C., Shukla, J., Singh, M., Slingo, J., Sobel, A., Solman, S., Spitzer, J., Stier, P., Stocker, T., Strock, S., Su, H., Taalas, P., Taylor, J., Tegtmeier, S., Teutsch, G., Tompkins, A., Ulbrich, U., Vidale, P.-L., Wu, C.-M., Xu, H., Zaki, N., Zanna, L., Zhou, T. & Ziemen, F. (2024). Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE). Earth System Science Data, 16, 2113-2122. doi:10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024 [publisher-version]
- van Dijk, E., Jungclaus, J., Sigl, M., Timmreck, C. & Krüger, K. (2024). High-frequency climate forcing causes prolonged cold periods in the Holocene. Communications Earth & Environment, 5: 242. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01380-0 [publisher-version]
- Wallberg, L., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Matei, D. & Müller, W. (2024). Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1-14. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 [publisher-version]
- Wickramage, C., Köhl, A., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. & Stammer, D. (2024). Contrasting Southern Ocean sea level responses to surface flux changes in eddy-rich and eddy-parameterized climate model configurations. Journal of Climate, 37(24), 6797-6819. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0063.1 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Wu, M., Li, C. & Zhang, Z. (2024). Recalibrated projections of the Hadley circulation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 19: 104041. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad751f [publisher-version]
- Wu, M., Li, C., Collins, M., Li, H., Chen, X., Zhou, T. & Zhang, Z. (2024). Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening. Nature Communications, 15: 9161. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53509-6 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
- Wu, M., Zhou, T., Li, C., Wu, B. & Jiang, J. (2024). Unraveling the role of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent tropical expansion via large-ensemble simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129: e2023JD040294. doi:10.1029/2023JD040294 [publisher-version]
- Zhang, W., Clark, R., Zhou, T., Li, L., Li, C., Rivera, J., Zhang, L., Gui, K., Zhang, T., Li, L., Pan, R., Chen, Y., Tang, S., Huang, X. & Hu, S. (2024). 2023: Weather and climate extremes hitting the globe with emerging features. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. doi:10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3 [publisher-version]
- Akperov, M., Eliseev, A., Rinke, A., Mokhov, l., Semenov, V., Dembitskaya, M., Matthes, H., Adakudlu, M., Boberg, F., Christensen, J., Dethloff, K., Fettweis, X., Gutjahr, O., Heinemann, G., Koenigk, T., Sein, D., Laprise, R., Mottram, R., Nikiéma, O., Soþolowski, S., Winger, K. & Zhang, W. (2023). Future project¡ons of wind energy potentials in the Arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX). Anthropocene, 44: 100402 .
- Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Jézéquel, A., Lehner, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. & Zscheischler, J. (2023). Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations. Nature Communications, 14: 2145. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5 [publisher-version]
- Crétat, J., Harrison, S., Braconnot, P., d’Agostino, R., Jungclaus, J., Lohmann, G., Shi, X. & Marti, O. (2023). Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-07023-y
- Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (Eds.). (2023). Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - Social drivers and physical processes. Hamburg: Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). doi:10.25592/uhhfdm.11230 [publisher-version]
- Engels, A. & Marotzke, J. (2023). Assessing the plausibility of climate futures. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 011006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaf90 [publisher-version]
- Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gonçalves Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (2023). Implications of the plausibility assessments for climate futures. In Engels, A., Marotzke, J., Gonçalves Gresse, E., López-Rivera, A., Pagnone, A. & Wilkens, J. (Eds.), Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes (pp.70-71). Hamburg: Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). [publisher-version]
- Essell, H., Krusic, P., Esper, J., Wagner, S., Braconnot, P., Jungclaus, J., Muschitiello, F., Oppenheimer, C. & Büntgen, U. (2023). A frequency-optimized temperature record for the Holocene. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 114022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0065 [publisher-version]
- Essell, H., Krusic, P., Esper, J., Wagner, S., Braconnot, P., Jungclaus, J., Muschitiello, F., Oppenheimer, C. & Büntgen, U. (2023). A frequency-optimised temperature record for the Holocene. Environmental Research Letters, 18: 114022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0065 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][research-data][research-data]
- Fang, S.-W., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., Jungclaus, J., Zanchettin, D. & Timmreck, C. (2023). The role of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in the early 19th century climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 50: e2023GL105307. doi:10.1029/2023GL105307 [publisher-version]
- Gastineau, G., Frankignoul, C., Gao, Y., Liang, Y.-C., Kwon, Y.-O., Cherchi, A., Ghosh, R., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mecking, J., Suo, L., Tian, T., Yang, S. & Zhang, Y. (2023). Forcing and impact of the northern hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979-2014. The Cryosphere, 17, 2157-2184. doi:10.5194/tc-17-2157-2023 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
- Ghosh, R., Putrasahan, D., Manzini, E., Lohmann, K., Keil, P., Hand, R., Bader, J., Matei, D. & Jungclaus, J. (2023). Two distinct phases of North Atlantic eastern subpolar gyre and warming hole evolution under global warming. Journal of Climate, 36, 1881-1894. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0222.1 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
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- Cunningham, S., Kanzow, T., Rayner, D., Baringer, M., Johns, W., Marotzke, J., Longworth, H., Grant, E., Hirschi, J., Beal, L., Meinen, C. & Bryden, H. (2007). Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturnung circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 317(5840), 935-938. doi:10.1126/science.1141304
- Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Reconstructing the meridional overturning circulation from boundary densities and the zonal wind stress. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(3), 743-763. doi:10.1175/JPO3019.1 [publisher-version]
- Jungclaus, J., Baehr, J., Haak, H., Jacob, D., Königk, T. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Die Stabilität der atlantischen Umwälzbewegung. Jahrbuch / Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, 2006. [publisher-version]
- Kanzow, T., Cunningham, S., Rayner, D., Hirschi, J., Johns, W., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Beal, L., Meinen, C. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Observed flow compensation associated with the MOC at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic. Science, 317(5840): 941. doi:10.1126/science.1141293
- Koenigk, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Haak, H. & Jungclaus, J. (2007). Arctic freshwater export and its impact on climate in the 20th and 21st. century. Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, 112: G04S41. doi:10.1029/2006JG000274 [publisher-version]
- Landerer, F., Jungclaus, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A 1B scenario. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 296-312. doi:10.1175/JPO3013.1 [publisher-version]
- Landerer, F., Jungclaus, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Ocean bottom pressure changes lead to a decreasing length-of-day in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(6): L06307. doi:10.1029/2006GL029106 [publisher-version]
- Lohmann, K. & Latif, M. (2007). Influence of El Niño on the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20, 5012-5018. doi:10.1175/JCLI4292.1
- Marotzke, J. & Botzet, M. (2007). Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L16704. doi:10.1029/2006GL028880 [publisher-version]
- Marotzke, J. (2007). Wie viel Forschung braucht der Klimaschutz?. In Müller, M. (Eds.), Der UN-Weltklimareport: Berichte über eine unaufhaltsame Katastrophe (pp.401-405). Köln: Kiepenheuer und Witsch.
- Matei, D. (2007). Pacific decadal variability: internal variability and sensitivity to subtropics. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 44. doi:10.17617/2.994355 [publisher-version]
- Mikolajewicz, U., Vizcaino, M., Jungclaus, J. & Schurgers, G. (2007). Effect of ice sheet interactions in anthropogenic climate change simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L18706. doi:10.1029/2007GL031173 [publisher-version]
- Palmer, M., Garabato, A., Stark, J., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2007). The influence of diapycnal mixing on quasi-steady overturning states in the Indian Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(9), 2290-2304. doi:10.1175/JPO3117.1 [publisher-version]
- Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P. & Jungclaus, J. (2007). Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate - carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century ?. Climate Dynamics, 29, 565-574. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8
- Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S., Clement, A., Dong, B., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Renold, M., Stocker, T., Stouffer, R., Sutton, R., Xie, S. & Yin, J. (2007). The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4899-4019. doi:10.1175/JCLI4283.1 [publisher-version]
- von Storch, J.-S., Sasaki, H. & Marotzke, J. (2007). Wind-generated power input to the deep ocean: An estimate using a (1)/(10)degrees general circulation model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 657-672. doi:10.1175/JPO3001.1 [publisher-version]
- Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. & Terray, L. (2006). Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study. Journal of Climate, 19(7), 1195-1203. doi:10.1175/JCLI3654.1 [publisher-version]
- De Coetlogon, G., Frankignoul, C., Bentsen, M., Delon, C., Haak, H., Masina, S. & Pardaens, A. (2006). Gulf stream variability in five oceanic general circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36(11), 2119-2135. [publisher-version]
- Giorgetta, M., Brasseur, G., Roeckner, E. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Preface to Special Section on Climate Models at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Journal of Climate, 19, 3769-3770. doi:10.1175/JCLI9023.1 [publisher-version]
- Gorbunov, M., Lauritsen, K., Rhodin, A., Tomassini, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2006). Radio holographic filtering, error estimation, and quality control of radio occultation data. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 111(D10): D10105. doi:10.1029/2005JD006427 [publisher-version]
- Granier, C., Niemeier, U., Jungclaus, J., Emmons, L., Hess, P., Lamarque, J., Walters, S. & Brasseur, G. (2006). Ozone pollution from future ship traffic in the Arctic northern passages. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: 13807. doi:10.1029/2006GL026180 [publisher-version]
- Gurvich, A., Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2006). Comparison between refraction angles measured in the Microlab-1 experiment and calculated on the basis of an atmospheric general circulation model. Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 42, 709-714. doi:10.1134/S0001433806060053
- Jungclaus, J., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Keenlyside, N., Luo, J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Roeckner, E. (2006). Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Journal of Climate, 19, 3952-3972. doi:10.1175/JCLI3827.1 [publisher-version]
- Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Esch, M., Roeckner, E. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation ?. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L17708. doi:10.1029/2006GL026815 [publisher-version]
- Koenigk, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Haak, H. & Jungclaus, J. (2006). Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 26, 17-34. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0060-1
- Latif, M., Collins, M., Pohlmann, H. & Keenlyside, N. (2006). A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. Journal of Climate, 19, 5971-5987. [publisher-version]
- Lucas, M., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2006). The scaling of the meridional overturning with the meridional temperature gradient in idealised general circulation models. Ocean Modelling, 13(3-4), 306-318. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.03.001
- Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Kornblueh, L. & Roeckner, E. (2006). The influence of sea surface temperatures o the Northern winter stratosphere: Ensemble simulations with the MAECHAM5 model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3863-3881. doi:10.1175/JCLI3826.1 [publisher-version]
- Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Koenigk, T. (2006). Ozeanzirkulation und arktisches Meereis unter dem Einfluss anthropogener Klimaänderungen. In Lozán, J., Graßl, H., Hubberten, H.-W., Hupfer, P., Karbe, L. & Piepenburg, a. (Eds.), Warnsignale aus den Polarregionen (pp.237-242). Hamburg: Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen. [publisher-version]
- Milinski, M., Semmann, D., Krambeck, H.-J. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Stabilizing the Earth's climate is not a losing game: Supporting evidence from public goods experiments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(11), 3994-3998. doi:10.1073/pnas.0504902103 [publisher-version]
- Mu, L., Wu, D., Chen, X. & Jungclaus, J. (2006). Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(21), 2651-2656. doi:10.1007/s11434-006-2161-6
- Mueller, W. & Roeckner, E. (2006). ENSO impact on midlatitude circulation patterns in future climate change projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L05711. doi:10.1029/2005GL025032 [publisher-version]
- Niemeier, U., Granier, C., Kornblueh, L., Walters, S. & Brasseur, G. (2006). Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111(9): D09301. doi:10.1029/2005JD006407 [publisher-version]
- Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U. & Schulzweida, U. (2006). Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3771-3791. doi:10.1175/JCLI3824.1 [publisher-version]
- Roeckner, E., Brasseur, G., Giorgetta, M., Jacob, D., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. & Sillmann, J. (2006). Klimaprojektionen für das 21. Jahrhundert. [publisher-version]
- Roeckner, E., Brasseur, G., Giorgetta, M., Jacob, D., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. & Sillmann, J. (2006). Climate projections for the 21st century. [publisher-version]
- Smith, R., Dubois, C. & Marotzke, J. (2006). Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 19(18), 4719-4737. doi:10.1175/JCLI3874.1 [publisher-version]
- Stouffer, R., Yin, J., Gregpry, J., Dixon, K., Spelman, M., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A., Ebyd, M., Flato, G., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, G., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W., Robitaille, D., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G. & Weber, S. (2006). Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and present future climate changes. Journal of Climate, 19(8), 1365-1387. [publisher-version]
- Wetzel, P., Maier-Reimer, E., Botzet, M., Jungclaus, J., Keenlyside, N. & Latif, M. (2006). Effects of ocean biology on the penetrative radiation in a coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 19, 3973-3987. doi:10.1175/JCLI3828.1 [publisher-version]
- Baquero Bernal, A. (2005). Interannual climate variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean: A study with a hierarchy of coupled general circulation models. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 8. doi:10.17617/2.994968 [publisher-version]
- Bonaventura, L., Kornblueh, L., Heinze, T. & Ripodas, P. (2005). A semi-implicit method conserving mass and potential vorticity for the shallow water equations on the sphere. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 47(8-9), 863-869. doi:10.1002/fld.857
- Gorbunov, M., Lauritsen, K., Rodin, A., Tomassini, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2005). Analysis of the CHAMP experimental data on radio-occultation sounding of the Earth's atmosphere. Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 41, 726-740. [publisher-version]
- Gregory, J., Dixon, K., Stouffer, R., Weaver, A., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. & Thorpe, R. (2005). A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(12): L12703. doi:10.1029/2005GL023209 [publisher-version]
- Jacob, D., Goettel, H., Jungclaus, J., Muskulus, M., Podzun, R. & Marotzke, J. (2005). Slowdown of the thermohaline circulation causes enhanced maritime climate influence and snow cover over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(21): L21711. doi:10.1029/2005GL023286 [publisher-version]
- Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Latif, M. & Mikolajewicz, U. (2005). Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 18(19), 4013-4031. [publisher-version]
- Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Botzet, M., Jungclaus, J. & Schulzweida, U. (2005). A coupled method for initializing El Nino Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57(3), 340-356. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00107.x [publisher-version]
- Lohmann, K. & Latif, M. (2005). Tropical Pacific decadal variability and the subtropical-tropical cells. Journal of Climate, 18(23), 5163-5178. doi:10.1175/JCLI3559.1 [publisher-version]
- Lohmann, K. (2005). Tropical Pacific/Atlantic climate variability and the subtropical-tropical cells. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 11. doi:10.17617/2.994953 [publisher-version]
- Longworth, H., Marotzke, J. & Stocker, T. (2005). Ocean gyres and abrupt change in the thermohaline circulation: A conceptual analysis. Journal of Climate, 18(13), 2403-2416. doi:10.1175/JCLI3397.1 [publisher-version]
- Lucas, M., Hirschi, J., Stark, J. & Marotzke, J. (2005). The response of an idealized ocean basin to variable buoyancy forcing. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 35(5), 601-615. doi:10.1175/JPO2710.1 [publisher-version]
- Baehr, J., Hirschi, J., Beismann, J. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Monitoring the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic: A model-based array design study. Journal of Marine Research, 62(3), 283-312. doi:10.1357/0022240041446191
- Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A., Drange, H., Pardaens, A., Terray, L. & Sutton, R. (2004). An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 22(4), 373-388. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0388-3
- Gurvich, A., Fedorova, O. & Kornblueh, L. (2004). Effect of the vertical gradients of temperature and wind velocity in the stratosphere on phase fluctuations in radio occultation measurements. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 40, 134-141.
- Haak, H. (2004). Simulation of low-frequency climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: University of Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 1. doi:10.17617/2.995124 [publisher-version]
- Klinger, B., Drijfhout, S., Marotzke, J. & Scott, J. (2004). Remote wind-driven overturning in the absence of the Drake Passage effect. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34(5), 1036-1049. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1036:RWOITA>2.0.CO;2 [publisher-version]
- Latif, M., Roeckner, E., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Jungclaus, J., Legutke, S., Marsland, S., Mikolajewicz, U. & Mitchell, J. (2004). Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 17, 1605-1614. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:RMAPMC>2.0.CO;2 [publisher-version]
- Mikolajewicz, U., Groeger, M., Marotzke, J., Schurgers , G. & Vizcaíno , M. (2004). Die Simulation von Eiszeitzyklen mit einem komplexen Erdsystemmodell. Jahrbuch / Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, 2004, 439-443. [publisher-version]
- Palmer, M., Bryden, H., Hirschi, J. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Observed changes in the South Indian Ocean gyre circulation, 1987-2002. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(15): L15303. doi:10.1029/2004GL020506 [publisher-version]
- Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M., Roesch, A., Wild, M. & Tschuck, P. (2004). Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. Journal of Climate, 17(22), 4463-4472. doi:doi: 10.1175/3209.1 [publisher-version]
- Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U. & Schulzweida, U. (2004). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 Part II: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 354. [publisher-version]
- Smith, R., Dubois, C. & Marotzke, J. (2004). Ocean circulation and climate in an idealised Pangean OAGCM. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(18): L18207. doi:10.1029/2004GL020643 [publisher-version]
- Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2003). Analysis and validation of challenging minisatellite payload (CHAMP) radio occultation data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108: 4584. doi:10.1029/2002JD003175 [publisher-version]
- Gorbunov, M. & Kornblueh, L. (2003). Principles of variational assimilation of GNSS radio occultation data. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 350. [publisher-version]
- Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Mikolajewicz, U. & Latif, M. (2003). Formation and propagation of great salinity anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(9), 26-1-26-4: 1473. doi:10.1029/2003GL017065 [publisher-version]
- Marsland, S., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Latif, M. & Röske, F. (2003). The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling, 5(2), 91-127. doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X
- Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U. & Tompkins, A. (2003). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description. Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, 349. [publisher-version]
Contact
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke
Director
Phone: +49 (0)40 41173-440
jochem.marotzke@ mpimet.mpg.de
Dr. Johann Jungclaus
Group leader
Phone: +49 (0)40 41173-109
johann.jungclaus@ mpimet.mpg.de
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