Earth System Modeling and Predictions

Climate predictions (here spanning the time range from seasons to 10 years ahead) can provide reliable forecast skill and therefor valuable climate information for many stakeholders. Climate forecasts meanwhile are routinely operated, e.g. by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) for seasonal and decadal time-scales and are further disseminated via high-level data storage systems (e.g. Copernicus), and thus made available for a wide range of applications. Seasonal to decadal climate predictions pursued by DWD base on the Earth System models by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, currently on a predecessor of the ICON model, the Max-Planck Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM), which no longer will be supported (Müller et al., 2018). The ICON environment is the natural successor of MPI-ESM, and as such envisaged to set the frame for the next generation of the operational climate prediction system at DWD. 
The mission of our research group is the development of the ICON-based Earth system model for climate prediction application. This encompasses (i) a joint modeling initiative by the DWD and our institute to develop a unifying model for numerical weather forecasts and climate predictions (hereafter ICON-Seamless), and own research targeting (ii) decadal climate predictions and (ii) more specifically the internal variability and prediction of European summer climate and heat extremes.

ICON-Seamless: Towards a unified model for both numerical weather forecasts and climate predictions

ICON-Seamless builds upon the ICON model components of numerical weather prediction (ICON-NWP) by DWD, the ICON ocean model (ICON-O) by our institute and the aerosol tracer model ICON-ART by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). In addition, the configuration includes the land component ICON-L and the DWD data assimilation system BACY, all adjusted to an Earth system model for pursuing scientific questions and operational forecasting.

Four major branches result in new developments of ICON Seamless:

  1. the incorporation of a suitable land component for weather and climate purposes into ICON-NWP
  2. the design of ICON-NWP for climate experiments
  3. the coupling of all components into an Earth system model including ICON-O and ICON-ART, and
  4. the design of getting initial conditions for weather and climate predictions in a common assimilation infrastructure.

Our group is involved in setting up and evaluating a fully coupled Earth system configuration and the design of a new land component within.

Decadal Climate Predictions

A global decadal climate prediction system has been developed by the predecessor of our group (“decadal climate prediction — MiKlip”, Marotzke et al, 2016, Hettrich et al 2021), which is now the basis for routinely produced forecasts. Further scientific research and development, however, is required to achieve and enhance a competitive next generation of global prediction system, which naturally will be based on the state-of-the-art ICON environment. This research to operation is currently shared by a consortium of DWD, Universität Hamburg and our institute, complemented with further research on regional modeling and prediction (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and post-processing (Freie Universität Berlin). In our group, we provide the modeling basis for such a prediction system tailored with process studies enhancing the climate predictability. Exemplary are lsingle forcing large ensemble experiments to assess the role of forcing components for decadal variability and prediction, or the assessment of the role of the North Atlantic ocean inertia for skill assessment over Europe.

Internal Variability and Prediction of European Summer Temperatures and Heat Extremes

The observed European summer temperatures have increased by ~1.5–2 °C since the 1990s and are expected to increase further due to the global mean temperature rise. The internal variability (ranging from years to decades) of European summer temperatures, however, is large in comparison to the observed temperature rise.  It offers an opportunity for climate predictions, the attribution of extreme events and the distinguishably of their likelihood of occurrence within limit targets set by the UNFCCC Paris Agreement (Suarez-Gutierrez et al., 2018). By using large ensembles of MPI-M Earth System models, we examine the well-sampled internal variability of European summer temperatures and associated extremes (Suarez-Gutierrez et al., 2020). We further specify the sources of the variability of European summer temperatures on sub-decadal to multi-decadal time-scales and their probable prediction skill in the decadal prediction system (Ghosh et al., 2016, Borchert et al., 2019, Müller et al., 2020). The examinations of the well-sampled internal variability of temperatures and associated extremes, and its decomposition into decadal time-scales, provide significant steps towards the understanding of the full bandwidth of appearances of European summers.

Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4

Marotzke, J., W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese, 2016: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1

Müller, W. A., J. H. Jungclaus, T. Mauritzen, et al., (2018): A higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR). Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth System, 10, 1383-1413, doi:10.1029/2017MS001217

Müller, W. A., R. Ghosh, L Borchert, (2020): Observed subdecadal variations of European temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters,

Suarez-Gutierrez, L., C. Li, W. A. Müller, and J. Marotzke, 2018: Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5ºC and 2ºC of global warming. Environmental Research Letters ERL-104665

Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Müller, W. A., Marotzke, J. (2020). Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes. Climate Dynamics54, 4351-4366. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05233-2

Borchert, L., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J., Neddermann, N.-C., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W. A. (2019): Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL085385

Group members and publications

Research Scientist
B 224
  • Wallberg, L., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Matei, D. & Müller, W. (2024). Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1-14. doi:10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Zanchettin, D., Modali, K., Müller, W. & Rubino, A. (2024). Ross-Weddell dipole critical for Antarctic sea ice predictability in MPI-ESM-HR. Atmosphere, 15. doi:10.3390/atmos15030295 [publisher-version]
  • Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Düsterhus, A., Müller, W., Barnes, E. & Baehr, J. (2023). Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50: e2022GL100727. doi:10.1029/2022GL100727 [publisher-version]
  • Müller, W. & al, . . ICON-Seamless: An integrated model for numerical weather forecasts, climate predictions and projections. XX.
  • Olonscheck, D., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Milinski, S., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Baehr, J., Fröb, F., Ilyina, T., Kadow, C., Krieger, D., Li, H., Marotzke, J., Plesiat, T., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Wallberg, L., Wieners, K.-H. & Brune, S. (2023). The new Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble with CMIP6 forcing and high-frequency model output. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15: e2023MS003790. doi:10.1029/2023MS003790 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Spiegl, T., Langematz, U., Pohlmann, H. & Kröger, J. (2023). A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 789-807. doi:10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023 [publisher-version]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2023). Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly. Communications Earth & Environment, 4: 415. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01075-y [pre-print][publisher-version]
  • Wallberg, L. (2023). Sub-decadal variability of European summer heat extremes. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 273. doi:10.17617/2.3556285 [publisher-version]
  • Dobrynin, M., Duesterhus, A., Froehlich, K., Athanasiadis, P., Ruggieri, P., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2022). Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 49: e2021GL095063. doi:10.1029/2021GL095063 [publisher-version]
  • Hermanson, L., Smith, D., Seabrook, M., Bilbao, R., Doblas-Reyes, F., Tourigny, E., Lapin, V., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Athanasiadis, P., Nicoli, D., Gualdi, S., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Scaife, A., Collier, M., O’Kane, T., Kitsios, V., Sandery, P., Pankatz, K., Früh, B., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W., Kataoka, T., Tatebe, H., Ishii, M., Imada, Y., Kruschke, T., Koenigk, T., Karami, M., Yang, S., Tian, T., Zhang, L., Delworth, T., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Wang, Y., Counillon, F., Keenlyside, N., Bethke, I., Lean, J., Luterbacher, J., Kolli, R. & Kumar, A. (2022). WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E1117-E1129 . doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1 [publisher-version]
  • Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Schmidt, H., Brovkin, V., Brüggemann, N., Chegini, F., Crueger, T., de Vrese, P., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Hagemann , S., Hanke, M., Ilyina, T., Korn, P., Kröger, J., Linardakis, L., Mehlmann, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Putrasahan, D., Raddatz, T., Ramme, L., Redler, R., Reick, C., Riddick, T., Sam, T., Schneck, R., Schnur, R., Schupfner, M., von Storch, J.-S., Wachsmann, F., Wieners, K.-H., Ziemen, F., Stevens, B., Marotzke, J. & Claussen, M. (2022). The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14: e2021MS002813. doi:10.1029/2021MS002813 [publisher-version]
  • Smith, D., Gillett, N., Simpson, I., Athanasiadis, P., Baehr, J., Bethke, I., Bilge, T., Bonnet, R., Boucher, O., Findell, K., Gastineau, G., Gualdi, S., Hermanson, L., Leung, L., Mignot, J., Müller, W., Osprey, S., Otterå, O., Persad, G., Scaife, A., Schmidt, G., Shiogama, H., Sutton, R., Swingedouw, D., Yang, S., Zhou, T. & Ziehn, T. (2022). Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). Frontiers in Climate, 4: 955414. doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 [publisher-version]
  • Stockdale, T., Kim, Y.-H., Anstey, J., Palmeiro, F., Butchart, N., Scaife, A., Andrews, M., Bushell, A., Dobrynin, M., Garcia-Serrano, J., Hamilton, K., Kawatani, Y., Lott, F., McLandress, C., Naoe, H., Osprey, S., Pohlmann, H., Scinocca, J., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K. & Yukimoto, S. (2022). Prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation with a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148, 1519-1540. doi:10.1002/qj.3919
  • Fröhlich, K., Dobrynin, M., Isensee, K., Gessner, C., Paxian, A., Pohlmann, H., Haak, H., Brune, S., Früh, B. & Baehr, J. (2021). The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13: e2020MS002101. doi:10.1029/2020MS002101 [publisher-version]
  • Hettrich, S., Müller, W., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Früh, B., Grieger, J., Kadow, C., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Paxian, A., Polkova, I., Scheffler, J., Stammer, D., Tiedje, B., Ulbrich, U., Vamborg, F. & Marotzke, J. (2021). MiKlip - von einem wissenschaftlichen Konzept zu einem prä-operationalen System für dekadische Klimavorhersagen. Promet, 104(Regionale Klimamodellierung II - Anwendungen), 37-46. doi:10.5676/DWD_pub/promet_104_06 [publisher-version]
  • Ilyina, T., Li, H., Spring, A., Müller, W., Bopp, L., Chikamoto, M., Danabasoglu, G., Dobrynin, M., Dunne, J., Fransner, F., Friedlingstein, P., Lee, W.-S., Lovenduski, N., Merryfield, W., Mignot, J., Park, J.-Y., Séférian, R., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Watanabe, M. & Yeager, S. (2021). Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 48: e2020GL090695. doi:10.1029/2020GL090695 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Jones, C., Hickman, J., Rumbold, S., Walton, J., Lamboll, R., Skeie, R., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Rogelj, J., Abe, M., Botzet, M., Calvin, K., Cassou, C., Cole, J., Davini, P., Deushi, M., Dix, M., Fyfe, J., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Kawamiya, M., Kelley, M., Kharin, S., Koshiro, T., Li, H., Mackallah, C., Müller, W., Nabat, P., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., Ohgaito, R., Olivié, D., Oshima, N., Parodi, J., Reerink, T., Ren, L., Romanou, A., Séférian, R., Tang, Y., Timmreck, C., Tjiputra, J., Tourigny, E., Tsigaridis, K., Wang, H., Wu, M., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yang, Y. & Ziehn, T. (2021). The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID-19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 48: e2020GL091883. doi:10.1029/2020GL091883 [publisher-version]
  • Liu, F., Daewel, U., Samuelsen, A., Brune, S., Hanz, U., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J. & Schrum, C. (2021). Can environmental conditions at North Atlantic deep-sea habitats be predicted several years ahead? - Taking sponge habitats as an example. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8: 703297. doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.703297 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Hermanson, L., Bilbao, R., Dunstone, N., Ménégoz, M., Ortega, P., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Smith, D., Strand, G., Timmreck, C., Yeager, S. & Danabasoglu, G. (2020). Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125: e2019JD031739. doi:10.1029/2019JD031739 [publisher-version]
  • Koul, V., Tesdal, J.-E., Bersch, M., Hátún, H., Brune, S., Borchert, L., Haak, H., Schrum, C. & Baehr, J. (2020). Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index. Scientific Reports, 10: 1005. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-57790-5 [publisher-version]
  • Lohmann, K., Matei, D., Bersch, M., Jungclaus, J., Pohlmann, H., Kröger, J., Modali, K. & Müller, W. . Decadal-scale predictive skill of North Atlantic upper-ocean salt content and its attribution to the initialization of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation. Journal of Climate.
  • Merryfield, W., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Becker, E., Butler, A., Coelho, C., Danabasoglu, G., Dirmeyer, P., Doblas-Reyes, F., Domeisen, D., Ferranti, L., Ilyina, T., Kumar, A., Müller, W., Rixen, M., Robertson, A., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Tuma, M., Vitart, F., White, C., Alvarez, M., Ardilouze, C., Attard, H., Baggett, C., Balmaseda, M., Beraki, A., Bhattacharjee, P., Bilbao, R., de Andrade, F., DeFlorio, M., Díaz, L., Ehsan, M., Fragkoulidis, G., Grainger, S., Green, B., Hell, M., Infanti, J., Isensee, K., Kataoka, T., Kirtman, B., Klingaman, N., Lee, J.-Y., Mayer, K., McKay, R., Mecking, J., Miller, D., Neddermann , N., Ng, C., Ossó, A., Pankatz, K., Peatman, S., Pegion, K., Perlwitz, J., Recalde-Coronel, G., Reintges, A., Renkl, C., Solaraju-Murali, B., Spring, A., Stan, C., Sun, Y., Tozer, C., Vigaud, N., Woolnough, S. & Yeager, S. (2020). Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E869-E896. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1 [publisher-version]
  • Müller, W., Borchert, L. & Ghosh, R. (2020). Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 47: e2019GL086043. doi:10.1029/2019GL086043 [supplementary-material][publisher-version]
  • Oelsmann, J., Borchert, L., Hand, R., Baehr, J. & Jungclaus, J. (2020). Linking ocean forcing and atmospheric interactions to Atlantic multidecadal variability in MPI-ESM1.2. Geophysical Research Letters, 47: e2020GL087259. doi:10.1029/2020GL087259 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Smith, D., Eade, R., Scaife, A., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., DelSole, T., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Yeager, S. & Yang, X. (2020). Author Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, (2019), 2: 13, 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y). npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3: 15. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0118-0 [publisher-version]
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Eade, R., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Bethke, I., Bilbao, R., Borchert, L., Caron, L.-P., Counillon, F., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Dunstone, N., Estella-Perez, V., Flavoni, S., Hermanson, L., Keenlyside, N., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W., Mignot, J., Mochizuki, T., Modali, K., Monerie, P.-A., Müller, W., Nicolí, D., Ortega, P., Pankatz, K., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Ruggieri, P., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wang, Y., Wild, S., Yeager, S., Yang, X. & Zhang, L. (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583, 796-800. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W., Li, C. & Marotzke, J. (2020). Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 55, 429-447. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05263-w [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W., Li, C. & Marotzke, J. (2020). Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes. Climate Dynamics, 54, 4351-4366. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05233-2 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Borchert, L., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J., Neddermann, N.-C., Suarez-Gutierrez, L. & Müller, W. (2019). Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 16, 14042-14051. doi:10.1029/2019GL085385 [publisher-version]
  • Borchert, L., Düsterhus, A., Brune, S., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2019). Forecast-oriented assessment of decadal hindcast skill for North Atlantic SST. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 11444-11454. doi:10.1029/2019GL084758 [publisher-version]
  • Feldmann, H., Pinto, J., Laube, N., Uhlig, M., Moemken, J., Pasternack, A., Früh, B., Pohlmann, H. & Kottmeier, C. (2019). Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 71, 1-19. doi:10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Ghosh, R., Müller, W., Eichhorn, A., Baehr, J. & Bader, J. (2019). Atmospheric pathway between Atlantic multidecadal variability and European summer temperature in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Climate Dynamics, 53, 209-224. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4578-4 [publisher-version]
  • Hegerl, G., Broennimann, S., Cowan, T., Friedman, A., Hawkins, E., Iles, C., Müller, W., Schurer, A. & Undorf, S. (2019). Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environmental Research Letters, 14: 123006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557 [publisher-version]
  • Kushnir, Y., Scaife, A., Arritt, R., Balsamo, G., Boer, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Kimoto, M., Kolli, R., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Matthes, K., Müller, W., O'Kane, T., Perlwitz, J., Power, S., Raphael, M., Shimpo, A., Smith, D., Tuma, M. & Wu, B. (2019). Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9, 94-101. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
  • Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. & Landschützer, P. (2019). Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink. Science Advances, 5: eaav6471. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav6471 [publisher-version][publisher-version]
  • Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Kornblueh, L., Takano, Y., Kröger, J., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B. & Marotzke, J. (2019). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble - Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 2050-2069. doi:10.1029/2019MS001639 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Popke, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jiménez de la Cuesta Otero, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Nam, C., Notz, D., Nyawira, S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., de Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Roeckner, E. & Winkler, A. (2019). Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 998-1038. doi:10.1029/2018MS001400 [publisher-version]
  • Neddermann, N.-C., Müller, W., Dobrynin, M., Düsterhus, A. & Baehr, J. (2019). Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed. Climate Dynamics, 53, 3039-3056. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04678-4
  • Paeth, H., Li, J., Pollinger, F., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Feldmann, H. & Panitz, H.-J. (2019). An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 52, 1343-1357. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4195-2
  • Paxian, A., Ziese, M., Kreienkamp, F., Pankatz, K., Brand, S., Pasternack, A., Pohlmann, H., Modali, K. & Früh, B. (2019). User-oriented global predictions of the GPCC drought index for the next decade. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 28, 3-21. doi:10.1127/metz/2018/0912 [publisher-version]
  • Pohlmann, H., Müller, W., Bittner, M., Hettrich, S., Modali, K., Pankatz, K. & Marotzke, J. (2019). Realistic quasi-biennial oscillation variability in historical and decadal hindcast simulations using CMIP6 forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14118-14125. doi:10.1029/2019GL084878 [publisher-version]
  • Polkova, I., Brune, S., Kadow, C., Romanova, V., Gollan, G., Baehr, J., Glowienka-Hense, R., Greatbatch, R., Hense, A., Illing, S., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Müller, W., Pankatz, K. & Stammer, D. (2019). Initialization and ensemble generation for decadal climate predictions: A comparison of different methods. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 149-172. doi:10.1029/2018MS001439 [publisher-version]
  • Reyers, M., Feldmann, H., Mieruch, S., Pinto, J., Uhlig, M., Ahrens, B., Früh, B., Modali, K., Laube, N., Mömken, J., Müller, W., Schädler, G. & Kottmeier, C. (2019). Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 171-187. doi:10.5194/esd-10-171-2019 [publisher-version]
  • Scaife, A., Ferranti, L., Alves, O., Athanasiadis, P., Baehr, J., Dequé, M., Dippe, T., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D., Gudgel, R., Greatbatch, R., Hermanson, L., Imada, Y., Jain, S., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W., Ren, H.-L., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Vecchi, G. & Yang, X. (2019). Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 974-988. doi:10.1002/joc.5855 [publisher-version]
  • Schuster, M., Grieger, J., Richling, A., Schartner, T., Illing, S., Kadow, C., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Pfahl, S. & Ulbrich, U. (2019). Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 901-917. doi:10.5194/esd-10-901-2019 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Smith, D., Eade, R., Scaife, A., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., DelSole, T., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Yeager, S. & Yang, X. (2019). Robust skill of decadal climate predictions. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2: 13. doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y [publisher-version][any-fulltext]
  • Wu, B., Zhou, T., Li, C., Müller, W. & Lin, J. (2019). Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature. Climate Dynamics, 53, 1357-1369. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04658-8
  • Borchert, L. (2018). Decadal climate predictions in the North Atlantic region: The role of ocean heat transport. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 208. doi:10.17617/2.2639896 [publisher-version]
  • Borchert, L., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2018). Atlantic Ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic region. Journal of Climate, 31, 6763-6782. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0734.1 [publisher-version]
  • Brune, S., Düsterhus, A., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2018). Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 51, 1947-1970. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3991-4
  • Bunzel, F., Müller, W., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Stacke, T. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., McLandress, C., Bushell, A., Kawatani, Y., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T., Andrews, M., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Dobrynin, M., Garcia, R., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gray, L., Holt, L., Kerzenmacher, T., Naoe, H., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J., Scaife, A., Schenzinger, V., Serva, F., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K. & Yukimoto, S. (2018). Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1009-1032. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Dobrynin, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W., Bell, L., Brune, S., Bunzel, F., Fröhlich, C., Pohlmann, H. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 3605-3614. doi:10.1002/2018GL077209 [publisher-version]
  • Han, W., Stammer, D., Meehl, G., Hu, A., Sienz, F. & Zhang, L. (2018). Multi-decadal trend and decadal variability of the regional sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of climate modes and external forcing. Climate, 6: 51. doi:10.3390/cli6020051 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Illing, S., Kadow, C., Pohlmann, H. & Timmreck, C. (2018). Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions. Earth System Dynamics, 9, 701-715. doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., Marotzke, J., Baehr, J., Köhl, A., Modali, K., Polkova , I., Stammer, D., Vamborg, F. & Müller, W. (2018). Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2593-2608. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1 [publisher-version][publisher-version]
  • Müller, W., Jungclaus, J., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleinen, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F. & Marotzke, J. (2018). A higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM 1.2 - HR). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 1383 -1413. doi:10.1029/2017MS001217 [publisher-version]
  • Pasternack, A., Bhend, J., Liniger, M., Rust, H., Müller, W. & Ulbrich, U. (2018). Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 351-368. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018 [publisher-version]
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X. & Yeager, S. (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11895-11903. doi:10.1029/2018GL079362 [publisher-version]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Müller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2018). Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1,5°C and 2°C of global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13: 064026. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Zhang, L., Han, W. & Sienz, F. (2018). Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades. Journal of Climate, 31, 2377-2388. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., Müller, W. & Prodhomme, C. (2017). Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3959-3974. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7
  • Fischer, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2017). Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 129-146. doi:10.5194/esd-8-129-2017 [publisher-version]
  • Ghosh, R., Müller, W., Baehr, J. & Bader, J. (2017). Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Climate Dynamics, 38, 3547-3563. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3283-4 [publisher-version]
  • Ghosh, R. (2017). Impact of the multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on European summer climate. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 189. doi:10.17617/2.2391979 [publisher-version]
  • Müller, V., Pohlmann, H., Düsterhus, A., Matei, D., Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Zeller, M. & Baehr, J. (2017). Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5° N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2975-2990. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
  • Pohlmann, H., Kröger, J., Greatbatch, R. & Müller, W. (2017). Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2685-2693. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8 [publisher-version]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Thorne, P. & Marotzke, J. (2017). Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5709-5719 . doi:10.1002/2017gl073798 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Tompkins, A., Zárate, O., Inés, M., Saurral, R., Vera, C., Saulo, C., Merryfield, W., Sigmond, M., Lee, W.-S., Baehr, J., Braun, A., Butler, A., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Gordon, M., Scaife, A., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Ose, T., Kirtman, B., Kumar, A., Müller, W., Pirani, A., Stockdale, T., Rixen, M. & Yasuda, T. (2017). The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 2293-2301. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1 [publisher-version]
  • Zanchettin, D., Gaetan, C., Arisido, M., Modali, K., Toniazzo, T., Keenlyside, N. & Rubino, A. (2017). Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports, 7: 12862. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2 [publisher-version][supplementary-material][supplementary-material]
  • Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C. & Sienz, F. (2016). Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 9324-9332. doi:10.1002/2016GL070587 [publisher-version]
  • Boer, G., Smith, D., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G., Msadek, R., Müller, W., Taylor, K., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y. & Eade, R. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3751-3777. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016 [publisher-version]
  • Bunzel, F., Notz, D., Baehr, J., Müller, W. & Fröhlich, K. (2016). Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 852-859. doi:10.1002/2015GL066928 [publisher-version][publisher-version]
  • Butler, A., Arribas, A., Athanassiadou, M., Baehr, J., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Déqué, M., Domeisen, D., Fröhlich, K., Hendon, H., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Iza, M., Karpechko, A., Kumar, A., Maclachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W., O'Neill, A., Scaife, A., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Stockdale, T. & Yasuda, T. (2016). The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 1413-1427. doi:10.1002/qj.2743
  • Kadow, C., Illing, S., Kunst, O., Rust, H., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Cubasch, U. (2016). Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 631-643. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639 [publisher-version]
  • Kruschke, T., Rust, H., Kadow, C., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Leckebusch, G. & Ulbrich, U. (2016). Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 721-738. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641 [publisher-version]
  • Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. & Sienz, F. (2016). Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake. Nature Communications, 7: 11076. doi:10.1038/ncomms11076 [publisher-version][supplementary-material]
  • Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Vamborg, F., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J., Pohlmann, H., Reyers, M., Schröder, M., Sienz, F., Timmreck, C. & Ziese, M. (2016). MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2379-2394. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1 [publisher-version]
  • Mohino, E., Keenlyside, N. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?. Climate Dynamics, 47, 3593-3612. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
  • Pattantyús-Ábrahám, M., Kadow, C., Illing, S., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H. & Steinbrecht, W. (2016). Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 709-720. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0803 [publisher-version]
  • Sienz, F., Müller, W. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 645-655. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0670 [publisher-version]
  • Timmreck, C., Pohlmann, H., Illing, S. & Kadow, C. (2016). The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 834-842. doi:10.1002/2015GL067431 [publisher-version]
  • Baehr, J., Fröhlich , K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S. & Müller, W. (2015). The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
  • Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Gualdi, S., Athanasiadis, P., Caian, M., Cassou, C., Fernandez, E., Germe, A., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Salas y Melia, D., Sanchez, E., Smith, D., Terray, L., Wyser, K. & Yang, S. (2015). An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2787-2806. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y
  • Böttinger, M., Pohlmann, H., Röber, N., Meier-Fleischer, K. & Spickermann, D. (2015). Visualization of 2D uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. In EuroVis Workshop on Visualization in Environmental Sciences (EnvirVis 2015) doi:10.2312/envirvis.20151083
  • Corti, S., Palmer, T., Balmaseda, M., Weisheimer, A., Drijfhout, S., Dunstone, N., Hazeleger, W., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., von Storch, J.-S. & Wouters, B. (2015). Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. Journal of Climate, 28, 4454-4470. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 [publisher-version]
  • Domeisen, D., Butler, A., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Mueller, W. & Baehr, J. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate, 28, 256-271. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1 [publisher-version]
  • Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Kirtman, B., Branstator, G., Danabasoglu, G., Hawkins, E., Kumar, A., Rosati, T., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Carson, C., Corti, S., Karspeck, A., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Schneider, E., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G. & Yeager, S. (2014). Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 243-267. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1 [publisher-version]
  • Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F. & Smith , D. (2014). Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2100-2107. doi:10.1002/2014GL059259 [publisher-version]
  • Saeed, S., Van Lipzig, N., Mueller, W., Saeed, F. & Zanchettin, D. (2014). Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 43, 503-515. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0
  • Scaife, A., Athanassiadou, M., Andrews, M., Arribas, A., Baldwin, M., Dunstone, N., Knight, J., MacLachlan, C., Manzini, E., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Stockdale, T. & Williams, A. (2014). Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1752-1758. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160 [publisher-version]
  • Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Eade , R., Fereday, D., Murphy, J., Pohlmann, H. & Scaife, A. (2014). Comments on "Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: promise and limitations". Journal of Climate, 27, 487-489. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1 [publisher-version]
  • Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Mueller, W., Bader, J. & Jungclaus, J. (2014). Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Climate Dynamics, 42, 381-399. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0
  • Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J. & Stevens, B. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 572-597. doi:10.1002/jame.20038 [publisher-version]
  • Hazeleger, W., Wouters, B., van Oldenborgh, G., Corti, S., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H. & von Storch, J.-S. (2013). Predicting multi-year North Atlantic ocean variability. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118, 1087-1098. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20117 [publisher-version]
  • Menary, M., Roberts, C., Palmer, M., Halloran, P., Jackson, L., Wood, R., Mueller, W., Matei, D. & Lee, S.-K. (2013). Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 2087-2096. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20178
  • Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Balmaseda, M., Keenlyside, N., Masina, S., Matei, D., Müller, W. & Rogel, P. (2013). Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics, 41, 775-785. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Smith, D., Eade, R. & Pohlmann, H. (2013). A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 41, 3325-3338. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Boer, G., Caian, M., Dobles-Reyes, J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermansson, L., Ho, C., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. & Wyser, K. (2013). Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2875-2888. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
  • Kröger, J., Müller, W. & von Storch, J.-S. (2012). Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 39, 795-810. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7
  • Matei, D., Baehr, J., Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Mueller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2012). Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 335(6064), 76-79. doi:10.1126/science.1210299
  • Müller, W., Baehr, J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., von Storch, J.-S. & Marotzke, J. (2012). Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophysical Research Letters, 39: L22707. doi:10.1029/2012GL053326 [publisher-version]
  • Sienz, F., Bothe, O. & Fraedrich, K. (2012). Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2143-2157. doi:10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012 [publisher-version][any-fulltext]


Dr. Wolfgang A. Müller

Group leader
Phone: +49 (0)40 41173-370
wolfgang.mueller@we dont want

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