Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology: Permafrost thaw: Gradual change or climate tipping point?

Global warming leads to Arctic permafrost thaw and the subsequent release of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. These changes are considered irreversible and, in some cases, abrupt, which has led to discussion whether permafrost might be a tipping element in the climate system. Researchers have compiled the currently available knowledge on how permafrost responds to climate change. They concluded that changes in permafrost are gradual at the global scale but abrupt on a local scale, and that the loss of carbon is irreversible.

Photograph of a thawing permafrost area in Siberia. The landscape shows a steep erosion edge with slumped soil and peat blocks, as well as flowing mud patterns downhill. In the background, two people in bright clothing are examining the site. The surrounding area is flat and tundra-like, with sparse vegetation. — Permafrost thaw in Siberia. Credit: Annett Bartsch

The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the rest of the planet. High temperatures are already causing the permanently frozen ground, known as permafrost, to thaw. The carbon contained in this soil is then released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane, further exacerbating global warming. Scientists have suggested that permafrost is a so-called “tipping element”—a part of the climate system that shifts to another state when a critical temperature threshold is reached. But what exactly does this mean in the case of permafrost?

In a review paper, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) along with their international colleagues have investigated whether the processes in the Arctic are abrupt on the one hand and irreversible on the other—two typical criteria for a tipping point. They concluded that large-scale thawing of permafrost occurs gradually with increasing temperatures. “We don’t see a sudden tipping in our climate models,” says Victor Brovkin, researcher at MPI-M and lead author of the study. However, the loss of permafrost carbon is still irreversible: Once the soil thaws, the decomposition of the carbon it contains continues, even if global temperatures stabilize. Therefore, a tipping is still possible at a later time.

Local tipping

Satellite image of the Batagaika crater in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Russia. The image shows the crater’s expansion between 2016 and 2020, highlighted in red. A label indicates the “Extension Area (2016–2020).” A world map in the top right corner shows the crater’s location in Siberia marked with a red dot. A scale bar in the top left shows 0–250 meters. — The Batagaika Crater in Siberia formed in the 1960s when deforestation caused the permafrost to melt. The crater has been growing since, as indicated for the time period 2016–2020. Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery (2020)

At the local level, irreversible changes can also occur abruptly. The team presents the example of thermokarst landscapes, which are formed when permafrost collapses and lakes form in the depressions. These lakes transport thermal energy deep into the ground, which accelerates the thawing of the permafrost and the decomposition of the carbon it contains.

Sometimes sudden changes can also be triggered by extreme events, such as heatwaves or flooding. This can cause an ecosystem to tip locally or regionally. However, this does not necessarily lead to a chain reaction that affects the entire Arctic.

As the researchers demonstrate, many of these changes can be detected through Earth observation. For instance, satellite instruments can measure sudden subsidence and changes in water levels from space. The researchers are pursuing various approaches to extract possible early warning signals from this data indicating a tipping. These efforts may be aided by new satellite products, such as those provided by the recently launched Sentinel-1C operated by the European Space Agency ESA.

The global perspective

According to the researchers, the impact of changing hydrology on the global climate has been overlooked in the discussions about whether permafrost is a tipping element. “Whether the Arctic becomes wetter or drier has consequences for cloud formation, which in turn affects the planet's energy balance,” explains Philipp de Vrese, researcher at the MPI-M and co-author of the study. These changes could impact other regions of the Earth, including the Amazon region and the Sahel, which are also considered to be possible tipping elements.

Overall, there is no clear evidence that permafrost is a tipping element, but the possibility can’t be excluded either. “Either way, the current changes we see in the Arctic are alarming,” says Brovkin. As a next step, the researchers will participate in the Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) led by Ricarda Winkelmann, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Geoanthropology, which aims to better understand the role of permafrost and other potential tipping elements.

Further information

Original publication

Brovkin, V., Bartsch, A., Hugelius, G. et al. Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System. Surveys in Geophysics 46, 303–326 (2025). DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9

Contact

Prof. Dr. Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
victor.brovkin@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr. Philipp de Vrese
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
philipp.de-vrese@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr. Tobias Stacke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
tobias.stacke@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

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