Special Colloquium: An approach to observationally constraining entire Earth system projections of future change
Emergent constraints are being used extensively to constrain projections of future change in individual elements of the climate system with historical observations. Many applications, however, required physically consistent projections of multiple climate elements. We therefore demonstrate a simple way in which an emergent constraint procedure can be applied to the full output from Earth System Models. The constrained simulations are used, in turn, to analyze the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to projected changes in extreme precipitation that are obtained via a physical scaling diagnostic for extreme precipitation that requires vertical velocity, saturation specific humidity and equivalent potential temperature.
Date
06.11.2024
Time
13:30–15:00 h
Place
- Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
- Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg
Organizers
- Lin Lin