• Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Popke, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenez Cuesta de la Otero, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Nam, C., Notz, D., Nyawira, S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J., Tian, F., Voigt, A., de Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Roeckner, E. & Winkler, A. (submitted). Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing CO2.
  • Illing, S., Kadow, C., Pohlmann, H. & Timmreck, C. (2018). Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions. Earth System Dynamics, 9, 701-715. doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Dobrynin, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W., Bell, L., Brune, S., Bunzel, F., Fröhlich, C., Pohlmann, H. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophysical Research Letters, early view, available online.. doi:10.1002/2018GL077209
  • Paeth, H., Li, J., Pollinger, F., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Feldmann, H. & Panitz, H.-J. (2018). An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, ahead of print, available online.. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4195-2
  • Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., McLandress, C., Bushell, A., Kawatani, Y., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T., Andrews, M., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Dobrynin, M., Garcia, R., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gray, L., Holt, L., Kerzenmacher, T., Naoe, H., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J., Scaife, A., Schenzinger, V., Serva, F., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K. & Yukimoto, S. (2018). Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1009-1032. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Müller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2018). Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1,5°C and 2°C of global warming. Environmental Research Letters, accepted manuscript available online.. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58
  • Zhang, L., Han, W. & Sienz, F. (2018). Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades. Journal of Climate, 31, 2377-2388. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1
  • Pasternack, A., Bhend, J., Liniger, M., Rust, H., Müller, W. & Ulbrich, U. (2018). Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 351-368. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018 [pdf]
  • Bunzel, F., Müller, W., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Stacke, T. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Ghosh, R., Chakraborty, A. & Nanjundiah, R. (2018). Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 319-333 . doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1970-z [pdf]
  • Tompkins, A., Zárate, O., Inés, M., Saurral, R., Vera, C., Saulo, C., Merryfield, W., Sigmond, M., Lee, W.-S., Baehr, J., Braun, A., Butler, A., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Gordon, M., Scaife, A., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Ose, T., Kirtman, B., Kumar, A., Müller, W., Pirani, A., Stockdale, T., Rixen, M. & Yasuda, T. (2017). The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 2293-2301. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1 [pdf]
  • Müller, V., Pohlmann, H., Düsterhus, A., Matei, D., Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Zeller, M. & Baehr, J. (2017). Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5° N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2975-2990. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
  • Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., Müller, W. & Prodhomme, C. (2017). Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3959-3974. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7
  • Brune, S., Düsterhus, A., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (in press). Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, available online.. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3991-4
  • Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., Marotzke, J., Baehr, J., Köhl, A., Modali, K., Polkova, I., Stammer, D., Vamborg, F. & Müller, W. (in press). Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, available online.. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1 [tar] [pdf]
  • Zanchettin, D., Gaetan, C., Arisido, M., Modali, K., Toniazzo, T., Keenlyside, N. & Rubino, A. (2017). Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports, 7: 12862. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2 [xls] [pdf] [avi]
  • Pohlmann, H., Kröger, J., Greatbatch, R. & Müller, W. (2017). Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2685-2693. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8 [gz] [pdf]
  • Reyers, M., Feldmann, H., Mieruch, S., Pinto, J., Uhlig, M., Ahrens, B., Früh, B., Modali, K., Laube, N., Mömken, J., Müller, W., Schädler, G. & Kottmeier, C. (submitted). Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency (under open revision for Earth System Dynamics). doi: 10.519/esd-2017-70. doi:10.5194/esd-2017-70
  • Ghosh, R., Müller, W., Baehr, J. & Bader, J. (2017). Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Climate Dynamics, 38, 3547-3563. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3283-4 [pdf]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Thorne, P. & Marotzke, J. (2017). Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5709-5719 . doi:10.1002/2017gl073798 [pdf]
  • Fischer, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2017). Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 129-146. doi:10.5194/esd-8-129-2017 [pdf]
  • Ghosh, R. (2017). Impact of the multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on European summer climate. Phd Thesis, Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. doi:10.17617/2.2391979 [pdf]
  • Mohino, E., Keenlyside, N. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?. Climate Dynamics, 47, 3593-3612. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
  • Sienz, F., Müller, W. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 645-655. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0670 [pdf]
  • Kadow, C., Illing, S., Kunst, O., Rust, H., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Cubasch, U. (2016). Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 631-643. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639 [de/pubman/item/escidoc:2058522:11/component/escidoc:2378274/MetZ-25-2016-631]
  • Pattantyús-Ábrahám, M., Kadow, C., Illing, S., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H. & Steinbrecht, W. (2016). Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 709-720. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0803 [pdf]
  • Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Vamborg, F., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J., Pohlmann, H., Reyers, M., Schröder, M., Sienz, F., Timmreck, C. & Ziese, M. (2016). MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2379-2394. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1 [pdf]
  • Boer, G., Smith, D., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G., Msadek, R., Müller, W., Taylor, K., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y. & Eade, R. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3751-3777. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016 [pdf]
  • Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C. & Sienz, F. (2016). Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 9324-9332. doi:10.1002/2016GL070587 [pdf]
  • Butler, A., Arribas, A., Athanassiadou, M., Baehr, J., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Déqué, M., Domeisen, D., Fröhlich, K., Hendon, H., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Iza, M., Karpechko, A., Kumar, A., Maclachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W., O'Neill, A., Scaife, A., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Stockdale, T. & Yasuda, T. (2016). The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 1413-1427. doi:10.1002/qj.2743
  • Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. & Sienz, F. (2016). Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake. Nature Communications, 7: 11076. doi:10.1038/ncomms11076 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Timmreck, C., Pohlmann, H., Illing, S. & Kadow, C. (2016). The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 834-842. doi:10.1002/2015GL067431 [pdf]
  • Bunzel, F., Notz, D., Baehr, J., Müller, W. & Fröhlich, K. (2016). Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 852-859. doi:10.1002/2015GL066928 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Kruschke, T., Rust, H., Kadow, C., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Leckebusch, G. & Ulbrich, U. (2016). Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 721-738. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641 [pdf]
  • Corti, S., Palmer, T., Balmaseda, M., Weisheimer, A., Drijfhout, S., Dunstone, N., Hazeleger, W., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., von Storch, J. & Wouters, B. (2015). Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. Journal of Climate, 28, 4454-4470. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 [pdf]
  • Böttinger, M., Pohlmann, H., Röber, N., Meier-Fleischer, K. & Spickermann, D. (2015). Visualization of 2D uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. In EuroVis Workshop on Visualization in Environmental Sciences (EnvirVis 2015) doi:10.2312/envirvis.20151083
  • Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Gualdi, S., Athanasiadis, P., Caian, M., Cassou, C., Fernandez, E., Germe, A., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Salas y Melia, D., Sanchez, E., Smith, D., Terray, L., Wyser, K. & Yang, S. (2015). An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2787-2806. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y
  • Baehr, J., Fröhlich , K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S. & Müller, W. (2015). The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
  • Domeisen, D., Butler, A., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Mueller, W. & Baehr, J. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate, 28, 256-271. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1 [pdf]
  • Saeed, S., Van Lipzig, N., Mueller, W., Saeed, F. & Zanchettin, D. (2014). Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 43, 503-515: . doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0
  • Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F. & Smith , D. (2014). Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2100-2107. doi:10.1002/2014GL059259 [pdf]
  • Scaife, A., Athanassiadou, M., Andrews, M., Arribas, A., Baldwin, M., Dunstone, N., Knight, J., MacLachlan, C., Manzini, E., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Stockdale, T. & Williams, A. (2014). Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1752-1758. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160 [pdf]
  • Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Kirtman, B., Branstator, G., Danabasoglu, G., Hawkins, E., Kumar, A., Rosati, T., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Carson, C., Corti, S., Karspeck, A., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Schneider, E., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G. & Yeager, S. (2014). Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 243-267. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1 [pdf]
  • Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Mueller, W., Bader, J. & Jungclaus, J. (2014). Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Climate Dynamics, 42, 381-399. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0
  • Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Eade , R., Fereday, D., Murphy, J., Pohlmann, H. & Scaife, A. (2014). Comments on "Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: promise and limitations". Journal of Climate, 27, 487-489. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1 [pdf]
  • Smith, D., Eade, R. & Pohlmann, H. (2013). A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 41, 3325-3338: . doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Boer, G., Caian, M., Dobles-Reyes, J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermansson, L., Ho, C., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. & Wyser, K. (2013). Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2875-2888: . doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
  • Pohlmann, H., Mueller, W., Kulkarni, K., Kameswarrao, M., Matei, D., Vamborg, F., Kadow, C., Illing, S. & Marotzke, J. (2013). Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5798-5802: . doi:10.1002/2013GL058051 [pdf]
  • Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J. & Stevens, B. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 572-597. doi:10.1002/jame.20038 [pdf]
  • Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Balmaseda, M., Keenlyside, N., Masina, S., Matei, D., Müller, W. & Rogel, P. (2013). Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics, 41, 775-785: . doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Hazeleger, W., Wouters, B., van Oldenborgh, G., Corti, S., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H. & von Storch, J.-S. (2013). Predicting multi-year North Atlantic ocean variability. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118, 1087-1098. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20117 [pdf]
  • Menary, M., Roberts, C., Palmer, M., Halloran, P., Jackson, L., Wood, R., Mueller, W., Matei, D. & Lee, S.-K. (2013). Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 2087-2096: . doi:10.1002/jgrc.20178
  • Müller, W., Baehr, J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., von Storch, J. & Marotzke, J. (2012). Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophysical Research Letters, 39: L22707. doi:10.1029/2012GL053326 [pdf]
  • Kröger, J., Müller, W. & von Storch, J. (2012). Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 39, 795-810. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7 [pdf]
  • Sienz, F., Bothe, O. & Fraedrich, K. (2012). Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2143-2157: . doi:10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012 [pdf] [pdf]
  • Matei, D., Baehr, J., Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Mueller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2012). Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 335(6064), 76-79. doi:10.1126/science.1210299