Western Europe is warming much faster than expected

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is
discernible in local temperature observations.  This opens the
possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by
comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be
verified directly to observations on a local scale.  The temperature
trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than
simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs.  The difference is very unlikely due
to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal
climate fluctuations.  In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric
circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture
and cloud cover.  A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current
affects trends along the coast.  These processes continue to affect
trends in projections for the 21st century.  This implies that climate
predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of
anthropogenic climate change.




13:30 Uhr


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI, Netherlands


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