Geophysikalisches Kolloquium: Cryosphere in the Changing Climate: The Splendors and Miseries of Climate Models

The prospect of an ice-free Arctic Ocean; the fate of mountain glaciers providing fresh water to hundreds of millions of people worldwide; the strength of positive feedbacks between the warming climate and natural emissions of greenhouse gases from the thawing permafrost (both terrestrial and sub-sea); the role of ice-sheet dynamics in amplification of the ice sheets’ contribution to the global sea-level rise. These issues are getting increasing attention in the international scientific research community and relate directly to societal needs for information about climate change and its impacts. At the same time, the components of the cryosphere are represented in state-of-the-art climate models at very different levels of sophistication, if at all. Complex and in many cases poorly understood processes, specific to the cryosphere, contribute significantly to the challenge that high latitudes pose from the viewpoint of physically-based climate modelling and prediction. Here, the challenge is illustrated with some cryosphere-related results of simulations and projections using state-of-the-art climate models. Associated focused science topics and imperatives are discussed. 




15:15 Uhr


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Vladimir Kattsov, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St Petersburg


Jochem Marotzke

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