Geophysikalisches Kolloquium: Predicting Coastal Flooding With Lead Times of Hours To Decades

An overview is provided of progress in forecasting coastal flooding up to ten days into the future, and also projecting flooding probabilities over the coming decades. The geographic focus is the east coast of Canada. The forecasting part of the presentation will outline the existing operational system for this region and discuss extensions (e.g., extending the lead time to ten days, using “ensembles” of forecasts to capture uncertainty in the atmospheric forcing, including the effect of seiches and seasonal changes in water density on tidal elevations). The projection part of the presentation will review statistical, dynamical and statistical-dynamical approaches to the estimation of flooding probabilities over the coming decades. The practical importance of allowing for the uncertainty in sea level rise projections, and in particular projected increases that are both large and improbable, will be illustrated.




15:15 Uhr


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Keith Thompson, Dalhousie University


Jochem Marotzke

Zur Übersicht