Joint Seminar: ENSO Transition Complexity and Its Underlying Dynamics

Transitions from one El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event to another can occur in various ways and constitute a key element of ENSO complexity. While ENSO amplitude, periodicity, and flavor have been frequently studied, ENSO transition complexity in the observation and models has not been as thoroughly evaluated. We developed a dynamic framework to explain how three transition patterns (i.e., episodic ENSO, cyclic ENSO, and multi-year ENSO) are produced and use this framework to examine CMIP model simulations and to project the future changes. In this talk, I will discuss (1) how the ENSO onset mechanisms control the ENSO transitions (2) how well the ENSO transition complexity and its underlying dynamics are simulated in CMIP5 models; and (3) how the complexity dynamics affect the model projections of future ENSO complexity.




15:15–16:15 Uhr


Virtual Seminar


Shih-Wei Fang


Dian Putrasahan

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