Special seminar: Recent results on seasonal climate forecasts and Earth system modelling from LAMMOC/UFF

In this seminar, recent modelling results produced at Laboratório de Monitoramento e Modelagem de Sistemas Climáticos, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil (LAMMOC/UFF) are presented. In the first part, we show seasonal forecasts from January 2018 to December 2019. In our operational setup, we use NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.1 with modifications to improve the representation of the ocean fluxes, convection in the Amazon region and microphysics. We use NCEP Analysis as initial conditions and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) 5.1 ocean forecasts as boundary conditions. Results are shown for a 6-member ensemble for the first 3 lead months and compared with Era Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) 2.0 to explore the combined effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions with reduced solar activity (Mounder Minimum). Our results show that this combination of forcings reproduce well the climatic patterns observed in Brazil during the last 20 years, and that the minimum in solar activity does not counteract the anthropogenic emissions.




13:00 Uhr


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Marcio Cataldi and Larissa Haringer, Laboratório de Monitoramento e Modelagem de Sistemas Climáticos


David Nielsen

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