Joint Seminar: On the interplay of models and observations in predicting Arctic climate evolution

We examine the interplay between models and observations to improve the prediction skill for Arctic climate. Observations of the Arctic sea-ice volume - a key parameter for the Arctic's energy and water budget - require pan-Arctic measurements of sea-ice concentrations and thicknesses. We initialize the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system with different ice concentration datasets, and investigate the impact of the observational uncertainty in sea-ice concentrations on the predicted Arctic climate state. Uncertainties in observational time series of Arctic ice thicknesses are still too large to be used in comprehensive climate prediction studies. To address this issue, we use model simulations to reduce the uncertainty in Arctic ice thickness and to obtain a better estimate of the total Arctic sea-ice volume.




15:15 Uhr


Geomatikum H3
Lecture Hall H3 (ground floor), University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg


Felix Bunzel, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg


Ralf Hand

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