Joint Seminar: Extreme Heat in a Changing Climate: From Historical Compound Heatwave–Rainfall Events To 3°C Warming Storylines
In the US, extreme heat has been the leading weather-related cause of death over the past three decades, and its frequency is projected to increase under global warming. My research examines extreme heat across multiple timescales–from century-scale climate scenarios to the short-term conditions relevant to the events we experience today–using a range of heatwave definitions.
First, I will introduce work examining historical heatwave events that are followed by heavy rainfall across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Heatwaves may contribute to favorable conditions for subsequent heavy rainfall within days after heatwave termination–known as compound heatwave–extreme precipitation (CHWEP) events. Using ERA5 reanalysis (1980-2024), my ongoing work reveals that short-lag (1–2 days) CHWEP occurrences are increasing more rapidly than longer-lag events, underscoring an important dimension of escalating risks under climate change.
Second, I pose the question “What if the CONUS warms by 3°C?” through a climate storyline framework. Using large ensemble simulations from the GFDL SPEAR model, this work identifies coherent narratives of annual heatwave patterns in a 3°C warmer CONUS. Four distinct spatial patterns emerge: Southeastern, Mountain-Central, Western-Severe, and Western-Mild. A case study illustrates a plausible scenario where parts of the US may experience over 150 cumulative heatwave days in a year with temperatures exceeding 3°C.
Together, these studies provide complementary perspectives toward building an integrated understanding of the mechanisms and risks associated with heat extremes.
Datum
16.12.2025
Uhrzeit
15:15–16:15 h
Ort
- Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
- Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg
Chair
- Arim Yoon