KlimaCampus Kolloquium: Five forecasts of early climate science
Scientific confidence in the overall global warming forecast is high. But that forecast relies heavily on complex climate models, which require millions of lines of computer code and many dozens of tunable parameters. How can we be so confident in the face of such complexity?
To a significant extent this confidence stems from several predictions made by the earliest climate models, all of which were later confirmed quantitatively by observations. Examples of these successful forecasts include global warming itself, the cooling of the stratosphere, amplified warming over land as well as the arctic, and delayed warming over the Southern Ocean. I will outline these predictions as they arose out of the course of model development led by Syukuro Manabe at Princeton's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, touching on both the basic science behind the predictions as well as their varied and subsequent confirmation.
Datum
23.10.2025
Uhrzeit
15:15 h
Ort
- Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
- Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg