Phone: ++49 - 40 - 41173 370

          Fax :    ++49 - 40 - 41173 298


          Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology

          Bundesstrasse 53

          20146 Hamburg


          Ocean in the Earth System

Research Group:

         Decadal Climate Prediction (MiKlip)



Current Projects


         Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen (Decadal Climate Predictions, BMBF-funded


         Decadal Climate Prediction Project (WCRP)

WCRP Grand Challenge:

         Near-term Climate Prediction






  • Li, H., T. Ilyina, W. A. Müller and P. Landschützer, 2018: Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink.
  • Düsterhus, A., M. Dobrynin, D. I. V. Domeisen, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr, 2018: A statistical-dynamical seasonal prediction of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Submitted to GRL
  • Smith, D. M., R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager and X. Yang, 2019: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions. Nat. Comm.



  • Neddermann, N, W. A. Müller; M. Dobrynin; A. Düsterhus; J. Baehr, 2019: Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed. Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04678-4
  • Kushnir, Y.,  A. A. Scaife, R. Arritt, G. Balsamo, G. Boer, F. Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins, M. Kimoto, R.Kumar Kolli, A. Kumar, D. Matei, K. Matthes, W. A. Müller, T. O’Kane, J. Perlwitz, S. Power, M. Raphael, A. Shimpo, D.Smith, M. Tuma, and B. Wu, 2019: Towards Operational Predictions of the Near-Term Climate. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
  • Reyers M. et al.,  Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency. Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171-187, 2019
  • Ghosh R, Mueller WA, Eichhorn A, Baehr J, Bader J (2018) Atmospheric pathway between Atlantic multidecadal variability and European summer temperature in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6, Climate Dynamics, 1-16, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4578-4
  • Wu, B., Zhou, T., Li, C., Müller W. A. and J. Lin (2019), Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature . Climate Dynamics,
  • I. Polkova, S. Brune, C. Kadow., V. Romanova, G. Gollan, J. Baehr, R. Glowienka-Hense, R. Greatbatch, A. Hense, S. Illing,  A.Köhl, J. Kröger, W. Müller, K. Pankatz, D.Stammer (2019). Initialization and ensemble generation for decadal climate predictions: A comparison of different methods. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1–24.
  • Mauritsen, T., J. Bader, T. Becker, J. Behrens, M. Bittner, R. Brokopf, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, M. Esch, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, D. Fläschner, V. Gayler, M. Giorgetta, D. S. Goll, H. Haak, S. Hagemann, C. Hedemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Ilyina, T. Jahns, D. J. de la Cuesta Otero, J. Jungclaus, T. Kleinen, S. Kloster, D. Kracher, S. Kinne, D. Kleberg, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, B. Möbis, W. A. Müller, J. E. M. S. Nabel, C. C. W. Nam, D. Notz, S.-S. Nyawira, H. Paulsen, K. Peters, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann, J. Pongratz, M. Popp, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, R. Redler, C. Reick, T. Rohrschneider, V. Schemann, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. D. Six, L. Stein, I. Stemmler, B Stevens, J.-S. von Storch, F. Tian, A. Voigt, P. de Vrese, K.-H. Wieners, S. Wilkenskjeld, A. Winkler and E. Roeckner, 2019: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing CO2. JAMES, doi:10.1029/2018MS001400 (open access)


  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang and S. Yeager, 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5ºC.  GRL
  • Scaife, A., L. Ferranti, O. Alves, P. Athanasidis, J. Baehr, M. Deque, T. Dippe, N. Dunestone, D. Fereday, R. G. Gudgel, R. Greatbatch, L. Hermanson, Y. Imada, S. Jain, A. Kumar, C. MacLachlan, W. Merryfield, W. A. Müller, H.-L. Ren, D. Smith, Y. Takaya, G. Vecchi, and X. Yang, 2018: Tropical Rainfall Predictions from Multiple Seasonal Forecast Systems, International Journal of Climatology
  • Borchert, L., W.A. Müller, and J. Baehr (2018). Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region. J. Climate, 31, 6763–6782,
  • Brune, S., A. Düsterhus, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr, 2018: Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts. Clim. Dyn., 51, 1947-1970. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3991-4
  • Müller, W. A., J. H. Jungclaus, T. Mauritzen, J. Baehr, M. Bittner, R. Budich, F. Bunzel, M. Esch, R. Ghosh,  H. Haak, T. Ilyina, T. Kleine, L. Kornblueh, H. Li, K. Modali, H. Pohlmann, E. Roeckner, I. Stemmler, F. Tian, J. Marotzke, 2018: A high-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR). JAMES, 10, 1383-1413, doi:10.1029/2017MS001217
  • Paeth, H., J. Li, F. Pollinger, W. A. Müller, H. Feldmann and H.-J. Panitz, 2017: An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions.
  • Dobrynin, M., D. I.V. Domeisen, W. A. Müller, L. Bell, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr, 2018: Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 45.
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., C. Li, W. A. Mueller, and J. Marotzke, 2018: Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5ºC and 2ºC of global warming. Europ. Res. Let. ERL-104665
  • Pasternack, A., J. Bhend, M. A. Liniger, H. W. Rust, W. A. Müller, and U. Ulbrich, 2018: Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (Deforest 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351-368
  • Bunzel, F., W. A. Müller, T. Stacke, S. Hagemann, M. Dobrynin, J. Baehr, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, 2018: Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophys. Res. Lett. 10.1002/2017GL076204


  • Kröger, J., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, J. Marotzke, J. Baehr, A. Köhl, K. Modali, I. Polkova, D. Stammer, F. Vamborg, W. A. Müller, 2017: Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1
  • Thompkins, A.,  M. I. O. de Zárate, R. I. Saurral, C. Vera, C., W. J. Merryfield, M. Sigmond, W.-S. Lee, O. Alves, F. Tseitkin, J. Baehr, A. Braun, M. Déqué, A. Butler, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Gordon, A. Scaife, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, T. Ose, R. Koster, B. Kirtman, A. Kumar, W. A. Müller, A. Pirani, T. Stockdale, M. Rixen, T.i Yasuda, 2017: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe, Bull. Amec. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1, (in press).
  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. A. Müller, C. Prodhomme. 2016: Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability, Clim. Dyn., 10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7.
  • Fischer, M., D. Domeisen, W.A. Müller and J. Baehr, 2017: Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 129-146,, 2017.


  • Müller, V., H. Pohlmann, D. Matei, J. Marotzke, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr, 2016: Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
  • Pohlmann, H., J. Kröger, R. J. Greatbatch, W. Müller, 2016: Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8 (open access)
  • Pattatanús-Ábrahám, M., C. Kadow, S. Illing, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, W. Steinbrecht, 2016: Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European raiosonde data. Met Zeitschrift
  • Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and  J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4
  • Boer, G. J., D. M . Smith, C. Cassou, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Danabasoglu, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Kimoto, G. A. Meehl, R. Msadek, W. A. Mueller, K. Taylor, and F. Zwiers (2016), The Decadal Climate Prediction Project, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-78
  • Marotzke, J., W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese, 2016: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1
  • Li, H., T. Ilyina, W. A. Müller and F. Sienz, 2016: Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake. Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/ncomms11076
  • Butler, A., O. Alves , A. Arribas, M.Athanassiadou, J.Baehr, N. Calvo, A.Charlton-Perez , M. Déqué, D.I.V. Domeisen , H . Hendon, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, M. Iza , A. Karpechko, A. Kumar, C. MacLachlan, W. J. Merryfield , W. A. Müller, A. O’Neill, A. A. Scaife , J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, T. N. Stockdale, and T. Yasuda 2016:The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? QJRMS 142: 1413-1427.
  • Bunzel, F., D. Notz, J. Baehr, W. A. Müller, and K. Fröhlich (2016), Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2015GL066928.


  • Kadow, C., S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch, 2015: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Met. Zeitschrift. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639  (open access)
  • Kruschke, T., H. W. Rust, C. Kadow, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, 2015: Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Met. Zeitschrift. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641  (open access)
  • Sienz, F., W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, 2015: Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Met. Zeitschrift.  (open access)
  • Domeisen, D., Butler, A., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Mueller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate, 28, 256-271. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1.
  • Baehr, J., K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. I. V. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. A. Müller, 2015: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn., 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7


  • Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann,G. P. Compo, and J. Marotzke (2014): A 20th-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s, Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5
  • Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate prediction for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 2100-2107.
  • Scaife, A. A., M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith., T. Stockdale, and A. Williams, 2014: Predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Northern Winter Teleconnection on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 1752–1758.
  • Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, S. Gualdi, P. J. Athanasiadis, M. Caian, C. Cassou, E. Fernandez, A. Germe, J. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Salas y Melia, E. Sanchez, D. Smith, L. Terray, K. Wyser, S. Yang, 2014: An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y


  • Pohlmann, H., W. A. Müller, K. Kulkarni, M. Kameswarrao, D. Matei, F. S. E. Vamborg, C. Kadow, S. Illing, and J. Marotzke, 2013: Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, pp. 5798-5802.
  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C. K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, and K. Wyser, 2013: Real-time multi-model decadal predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, pp. 2875-2888.
  • Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, W. A. Müller, J. Bader, and J.H. Jungclaus (2013) Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0
  • Menary, M. B., C. D. Roberts, M. D. Palmer, P. R. Halloran, L. Jackson, R. A. Wood, W. A. Mueller, D. Matei, and S.-K. Lee (2013), Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model,J. Geophys. Res.Oceans,118, 2087–2096, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20178
  • Saeed, S., N. van Lipzig, W. A. Müller, F. Saeed and D. Zanchettin (2013), Influence of the Circumglobal Wave-train on European Summer Precipitation, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0.
  • Pohlmann, H., D. M. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim. Dyn., 41, 775-785. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W. A., Notz, D., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., & Stevens, B. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 572-597.


  • Müller, W. A., J. Baehr, H. Haak, J. H. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, D. Notz, H. Pohlmann, J.-S. von Storch, and J. Marotzke, 2012: Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22707, doi:10.1029/2012GL053326.
  • Manzini, E., C. Cagnazzo, P. G. Fogli, A. Bellucci, and W. A.Müller (2012), Stratosphere-troposphere coupling at inter-decadal time scales: Implications for the North Atlantic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050771.
  • Kröger, J. and W. Müller and J.-S. von Storch, 2012, Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7.
  • Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. H. Jungclaus, W. A. Müller, H. Haak, and J. Marotzke (2012), Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1
  • Matei, D., J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, W. A. Müller, and J. Marotzke (2012), Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N, Science, 335, 76–79, doi:10.1126/science.1210299


  • Saeed, S., W. A. Müller, S. Hagemann, D. Jacob, M. Mujumdar, and R. Krishnan (2011), Precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low andassociated teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08702, doi:10.1029/2011GL046984.


  • Saeed. S., W. A. Muller, S. Hagemann, D. Jacob (2010), Circumglobal wave train and summer monsoon over northwestern India and Pakistan; the explicit role of the surface heat low, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0888-x
  • Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, M. Latif (2008): NAO and Predictability. PROMET.
  • Müller, W. A., C. Frankignoul and N. Chouaib (2008): Observed Decadal Tropical Pacific - North Atlantic Teleconnections. Geophys. Res. Let., 35, L24810, doi:10.1029/2008GL035901
  • Müller, W. A. and E. Roeckner (2008): ENSO Teleconnections in Projections of Future Climate in ECHAM5/MPIOM. Clim. Dyn., 31, 533-549.
  • Müller, W. A. and E. Roeckner (2006): ENSO Impact on Mid-latitude Circulation Patterns in Future Climate Projections. Geophys. Res. Let. , 33,  5, DOI L05711 10.1029/2005GL025032, 2006
  • Schwierz, C. , C. Appenzeller, H. C. Davies,. M.A. Liniger, W. A. Müller, T. F. Stocker and M. Yoshimori (2006): Approaches and Challenges by seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. Clim. Change, 79, 31-63.
  • Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller and C. Schär (2005): Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its Impact on Near Surface Temperature, Clim. Dyn., 24, 213-226.
  • Müller, W. A.  C. Appenzeller, F. Doblas-Reyes and M. A. Liniger (2005): A Debiased Ranked Probability Skill Score to Evaluate Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts with Small Ensemble Sizes. J. Clim, 1513-1523.
  • Müller, W. A. (2004): Analysis and Prediction of the European Winter Climate. in Veröffentlichung der MeteoSchweiz No. 69, pp101.
  • Müller, W. A., R. Blender and K. Fraedrich (2002): Low-frequency variability in idealized GCM experiments with circumpolar and localized storm tracks. Non. Proc. Geophys., 9, 1-13

Student Supervision

Ongoing PhD:

  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
  • Nele Neddermann (Supervisor: Johanna Baehr, IFM Uni Hamburg)
  • Leonard Borchart (Supervisor: Johanna Baehr, IFM Uni Hamburg)

Past PhD:

    Curriculum Vitae

    • since 2012 Research Group Leader of “Decadal Climate Prediction (MiKlip)" at Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Ocean in the Earth System"
    • since 2009 Scientist, Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Ocean in the Earth System"
    • 2005-2009 Scientist, Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Atmosphere in the Earth System"
    • 2004         PostDoc, MeteoSwiss, Zürich
    • 2001-2004 PhD, ETH Zürich and MeteoSwiss, Zürich
    • 1993-2000 Study of Meteorology, University of Hamburg

    Past Projects


            National Center of Competences and Research in Climate (Swiss National Science Foundations)


            Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (EU FP6)


            Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact (EU FP7)


            Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (EU FP7)


            Intgerated Climate System Analysis and Prediction