Masaki Toda
| Department | Climate Dynamics |
| Group | Large-scale Coupled Dynamics |
| Position | Scientist |
| phone | |
| masaki.toda@mpimet.mpg.de | |
| Room | B 305 |
Research Interest
The role of land in the climate responses to global warming.
Understanding the mechanisms that determine the spatial patterns of climate responses to global warming, and thereby contributing to more accurate regional projections of future climate, is an issue of strong societal demand. In particular, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature changes drives atmospheric general circulation and atmospheric teleconnections, thereby affecting climate around the world. Because of its importance, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature has long been a central focus in studies of climate responses. However, changes in sea surface temperature form a complex system involving numerous processes, and it is not straightforward to identify the mechanisms that determine the spatial patterns of changes in sea surface temperature and in the climate system as a whole. I therefore aim to clarify the influence of land on the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature and climate responses, and thereby contribute to addressing this problem.
Land warming has traditionally been regarded as passive relative to the ocean. As a result, whether land plays an active role in shaping changes in sea surface temperature has not been widely discussed. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that land warming can affect the pattern of sea surface temperature change. I focus in particular on the thermal effect of land, and aim to clarify, using climate model experiments, how the thermal contrast between land and ocean influences patterns of sea surface temperature change.
At the same time, it is also true that land is highly passive with respect to the oceanic response. However, the mechanisms by which land temperature changes are constrained by the ocean have not yet been fully clarified. Land and ocean clearly influence each other through a two-way feedback, and discussing both directions of this interaction is essential for properly situating land within the mechanisms of climate change. I therefore also aim to clarify, using models of various levels of hierarchy, how the ocean constrains land climate.
By improving our understanding of processes acting in both directions—from land to ocean and from ocean to land—I hope to contribute to a clearer perspective on the mechanisms of change in the complex climate system by properly positioning the role of land within that system.
Specific Interests:
- Clarifying the influence of land heat capacity on the climatological mean state and global warming response.
- Clarifying the mechanism by which tropical land warming is constrained by ocean climate.
- Differences in the influence of distinct SST patterns on land warming.
- Clarifying the influence of rapid land warming on circulation field and its underlying mechanisms.
- Teleconnections from the tropical Pacific to the South Pacific in the global warming response.
Employment
Apr. 2024-present Scientist, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
Apr. 2022-Mar. 2024 Project Researcher, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
Education
Mar. 2022 Ph.D. in Science, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
Mar. 2019 M.Sc. in Science, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
Mar. 2017 B.Sc. in Science, Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, The University of Tokyo
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Xu, Z., Kosaka, Y., Toda, M. et al. Irreversibility of winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America against CO2 forcing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7, 300 (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00864-2
Toda, M., Kosaka, Y., Miyamoto, A. et al. Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics. Nature Geoscience 17, 858-865 (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5
Toda, M., Yoshimori, M., and Watanabe, M. (2023). An energy budget framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part II: Transient climate state. Journal of Climate, 36, 4307-4326. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0483.1
Toda, M., Watanabe, M., and Yoshimori, M. (2021). An energy budget framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part I: Near-equilibrium state. Journal of Climate, 34, 9279-9292. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0302.1
Toda, M., and Watanabe, M. (2020). Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951-2010. Climate Dynamics, 54, 4129-4145.
Toda, M., and Watanabe, M. (2018). Linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1-8.
Non-Peer-Reviewed Publications
MIROC6 AGCM Document Writing Team (2021). Description of MIROC6 AGCM. CCSR Report No. 65, Division of Climate System Research, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo. doi.org/10.15083/0002000180
Manuscripts Under Review
Toda, M., Shaw, T. A., and Kang, S. M. Quantifying CO2's Role in Historical Regional Climate Change to Inform Mitigation Targets. (under revision)
Manuscripts in Preparation
Peinado, A., Toda, M., Schmidt, H., Kang, S. M., Klocke, D., Kluft, L., Stevens, B., Takasuka, D., and Bony, S. Resolution dependence of the climate feedback parameter in km-scale climate models. (co-first author)
Toda, M., Shaw, T. A., and Kang, S. M. Observed deep-tropical land warming since 1980 departs from model and theoretical expectations.
Toda, M., and Gunther, M. The magnitude of land-ocean warming contrast depends on the pattern of SST warming.
Presentations and Talks
Selected presentations; only oral presentations delivered by the applicant are listed.
Masaki Toda, Angel Peinado, Hauke Schmidt, Bjorn Stevens, Sarah M. Kang. More positive climate feedbacks with higher resolution in the km-scale ICON. CFMIP2025 (Exeter, UK, July 2025). Oral presentation.
Masaki Toda, Sarah M. Kang, Tiffany A. Shaw. Climate Models Underestimate Satellite Era Land-ocean Warming Contrast in the Tropics. EGU2025 (Vienna, Austria, May 2025). Oral presentation.
Tiffany A. Shaw, Masaki Toda (presenter), Sarah M. Kang. Minimal impact of methane on satellite-era climate change. EGU2025 (Vienna, Austria, May 2025). Oral presentation.
Masaki Toda, Sarah M. Kang, Tiffany A. Shaw. Climate Models Underestimate Satellite Era Land-ocean Warming Contrast in the Tropics. AGU2024 (Washington, D.C., USA, December 2024). Oral presentation.
Masaki Toda, Sarah M. Kang, Tiffany A. Shaw. Methane’s Impact on Historical Climate Change: Less Significant Than Anticipated. AGU2024 (Washington, D.C., USA, December 2024). Oral presentation.
Masaki Toda, Ayumu Miyamoto, Yu Kosaka, Masahiro Watanabe. Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics. TROPICS Workshop (Hamburg, Germany, September 2024). Oral presentation.
8 additional presentations.
Awards
Yamamoto Medal, Meteorological Society of Japan, 2025
Awarded paper: Toda, M., Kosaka, Y., Miyamoto, A. et al. Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics. Nature Geoscience 17, 858-865 (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5
Grants and Fellowships
JSPS KAKENHI Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists (Project No. 24K17124), “Understanding temporal changes in climate feedbacks and their physical mechanisms under realistic global warming” (FY2024-2026, The University of Tokyo; suspended following relocation abroad after acceptance).
JSPS Research Fellowship for Young Scientists (DC1), Grant No. 19J20697, “Mechanisms of large-scale hydrological cycle changes under global warming,” Principal Investigator, Apr. 25, 2019-Mar. 31, 2022.
Teaching and Research Supervision
Steve Leonpadua (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) - M.Sc. Atmospheric Science equivalent, main supervision. Topic: “Conducting and analyzing a piControl experiment with increased land heat capacity” (scheduled to begin in June 2026).
Zhenhao Xu (Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo) - Joint Ph.D. student, doctoral thesis supervision assistance. Topic: “Asymmetry in climate responses to increases and decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration” (Nov. 2022-Mar. 2024).
Peer Review Service
Nature Climate Change
Nature Communications
Science Advances
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Journal of Climate
Climate Dynamics
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Geophysical Research Letters
Memberships
Meteorological Society of Japan
JpGU
AGU
EGU
CFMIP