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Monday, 22nd of September

12:00 12:30 Registration / Snack
12:30 12:45 Welcome Martin Claussen MPI-M / Univ. Hamburg, Germany

Climate:

12:45 14:05 session chair: Martin Claussen  
     
12:45 13:05 Kerry Cook and Edward K. Vizy University of Texas at Austin, USA
  Climate Change Projections for Northern Africa from Regional and Global Models  
13:05 13:25 Michaela Biasutti, John G. Dwyer, and Adam H. Sobel Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
  Future Rainfall Changes in the Sahel: lessons from idealized simulations  
13:25 13:45 Sebastian Bathiany, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin Wageningen University, The Netherlands
  CO2-induced Sahel greening in three CMIP5 Earth System Models  
13:45 14:05 Sharon Nicholson Florida State University, USA
  An evaluation of our current state of knowledge of anthropogenic effects on African climate  
       
14:05 15:05 Discussion  
  chair: Tim Brücher  
       
15:05 15:30 Coffee  

Land use (1/2):

15:30 17:10 session chair: Hans Peter Thamm  
       
15:30 15:50 Guiling Wang, Kazi Ahmed, Liangzhi You, and Jawoo Koo Depart. of Computer Science, New Jersey Inst. of Technology, USA
  Present and Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in North Africa: the Impacts of Climate and Socioeconomic Drivers  
15:50 16:10 Ceciele Dardel, Laurent Kergoat, Pierre Hiernaux, Manuela Grippa, Eric Mougin, Compton Jim Tucker, and Philippe Ciais
  What is behind the Sahelian re-greening ? Rain Use Efficiency analysis over Mali and Niger  
16:10 16:30 Niels Andela and Guido R. van der Werf Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  Drivers of recent trends in African landscape fires  
16:30 16:50 Jonathan Seaquist Dep. Physical Geog. and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden
  The Global Land Acquisition System: A Network Science Perspective  
16:50 17:10 Julia Pongratz MPI f. Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
  Regional land use change: the adaptation-mitigation perspective  
     
17:10 18:00 Discussion  
  chair: Michael Link  

Land use (2/2):

9:00 10:00 session chair: Line Gordon  
       
9:00 9:20 Ole Mertz, Laura Vang Rasmussen, Kjeld Rasmussen, Hector Nieto, Abdou Ali, and Idrissa Maiga Dept. Geosciences and Natural Resource, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
  Communicating climate information to pastoralists – potential tools for climate change adaptation and land use conflict mitigation  
9:20 9:40 Rasmus Fensholt, Kjeld Rasmussen, Bjarne Fog, and Stephanie Horion Dept. Geosciences and Natural Resource, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
  Land degradation in the Sahel: Reflections on contrasting evidence and interpretations of drivers  
9:40 10:00 Hanelore Kusserow Munich / Berlin, Germany
  Declining natural resources and increasing conflicts in the African Sahel  
     
10:00 10:30 Coffee Break  
     
10:30 12:00 discussion  
  chair: Uwe Schneider  
       
12:00 13:15 Lunch  
     

Conflict:

13:15 14:35 session chair: Nina v. Uexküll  
       
13:15 13:35 Tor Benjaminsen, Koffi Alinon, Halvard Buhaug and Jill T. Buseth Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway
  Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel?  
13:35 13:55 Matthias Lüdeke and Till Sterzel Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany  
  Armed conflicts in drylands: a statistical investigation of natural and socio-economic causes  
13:55 14:15 Halvard Buhaug, Tor A. Benjaminsen, Espen Sjaastad, Ole M. Theisen Peace Research Institute Oslo, Norway
  Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict in Africa  
14:15 14:35 John O'Loughlin Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, USA
  Climate variability and violence in Kenya: Investigating the relationship and the role of local institutions with survey data from a national sample  
       
14:35 15:15 Discussion  
  chair: Nina v. Uexküll  
     
15:15 15:45 Coffee Break  

Synthesis (1/2):

15:30 16:10 session chair: Jasmin Link  
       
15:30 15:50 Michael Brzoska and Christiane Fröhlich Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University Hamburg, Germany
  Migration: human links between climate change, food insecurity and violent conflict?  
15:50 16:10 Papa Sow, Elina Marmer, and Jürgen Scheffran ZEF, Germany
  The aftermaths of environmental degradations: Dreams of adventures, conflict and traumatic experiences of North and West African "Boat people" to Europe  
       
16:10 17:15 Discussion  
  chair: Christian Webersik  

Synthesis (2/2):

9:00 10:00 session chair: Hans Günter Brauch  
       
9:00 9:20 Jürgen Scheffran, Jasmin Link, Michael Link, Tobias Ide, and Grace Ngaruiya Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), University Hamburg, Germany
  Climate Change, Water, Land Use and Conflict in Northern Africa  
9:20 9:40 Janpeter Schilling Climate Change and Security at International Alert, London, UK
  Climate Change, Vulnerability and Conflict in Northern Africa  
       
9:40 10:00 Short Discussion  
  chair: Hans Günter Brauch  
     
10:00 10:20 Coffee Break  

Panel discussion:

10:20 12:40 Chair: Jürgen Scheffran Univ. Hamburg, Germany
  Panel    
    Heinz Dieter Jopp Institut für strategische Zukunftsanalyse, Germany
    Benjamin Pohl Adelphi, Germany
    Grace Ngaruiya Univ. Hamburg, Germany
    Janani Vivekananda International Alert, UK
    Paul Vlek ZEF, University of Bonn, Germany
       

Concluding remarks:

12:40 13:00 Martin Claussen MPI f. Meteorology / University Hamburg, Germany