Holger Pohlmann

O’Kane, T., A. A. Scaife, Y. Kushnir, A. Brookshaw, C. Buontempo, D. Carlin, R. K. Connell, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, K. Förster, A. Graca, A. J. Hobday, V. Kitsios, L. van der Laan, J. Lockwood, W. J. Merryfield, A. Paxian, M. R. Payne, M. C. Reader, G. R. Saville, D. Smith, B. Solaraju-Murali, N. Caltabiano, J. Carman, E. Hawkins, N. Keenlyside, A. Kumar, D. Matei, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Raphael, M. Sparrow, B. Wu, 2022: Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions. Nature Communications Earth & Evironment

2022

Hermanson, L., D. Smith, M. Seabrook, R. Bilbao, F. Doblas-Reyes, W. Merryfield, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, A. Scaife, T. Mochizuki, T. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, T. Tian, M. Collier, T. O’Kane, K. Pankatz, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, L. Zhang, T. Delworth, Y. Wang, F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, 2022: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A forecast for 2021-2025. BAMS, 103, E1117-1129. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1
Jungclaus, J. H., S. J. Lorenz, H. Schmidt, V. Brovkin, N. Brüggemann, F. Chegini, V. Gayler, M. A. Giorgetta, O. Gutjahr, H. Haak, S. Hagemann, M. Hanke, T. Ilyina, P. Korn, J. Kröger, L. Linardakis, C. Mehlmann, U. Mikolajewicz, W. A. Müller, D. Notz, H. Pohlmann, D. A. Putrasahan, T. Raddatz, L. Ramme, R. Redler, C. H. Reick, T. Riddick, T. Sam, R. Schneck, R. Schnur, M. Schupfner, J.-S. von Storch, F. Wachsmann, K.-H. Wieners, F. Ziemen, B. Stevens, J. Marotzke, and M. Claussen, 2022: The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0. JAMES, 14, e2021MS002814. doi:10.1029/2021MS002813
Pohlmann, H., S. Brune, K. Fröhlich, J. H. Jungclaus, C, Sgoff, J. Baehr: Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Climate Predictions with ICON-ESM. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06558-w

2021

Fröhlich, K., M. Dobrynin, K. Isensee, C. Gessner, A. Paxian, H. Pohlmann, H. Haak, S. Brune, B. Früh, J. Baehr, 2021: The German climate forecast system: GCFS. JAMES, 13, e2020MS002101. doi:10.1002/2020MS002101
Liu, F., U. Daewel, A. Samuelsen, S. Brune, U. Hanz, H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr, C. Schrumm, 2021: Can environmental conditions at North Atlantic deep-sea habitats be predicted several years ahead? - Taking sponge habitats as an example. Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 703297. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2021.703297

2020

Hermanson, L., R. Bilbao, N. Dunstone, M. Menegoz, P. Ortega, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, D. Smith, W. Strand, C. Timmreck, S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, 2020: Robust multi-year climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems. JGR Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD031739. doi:10.1029/2019JD031739
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager and X. Yang, 2020: Author correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions. Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 15. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0118-0
Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kahrin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicoli, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, P. Ruggieri, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, D. Swingedouw, Y. Wang, S. Wild, S. Yeager, X. Yang, L. Zhang, 2020: North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583, 796-800. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
Stockdale, T. N., Y.-H. Kim, J. A. Anstey, F. Palmeiro, N. Butchart, A. A. Scaife, M. Andrews, A. C. Bushell, M. Dobrynin, J. Garcia-Serrano, K. Hamilton, Y. Kawatani, F. Lott, C. McLandress, H. Naoe, S. Osprey, H. Pohlmann, J. Scinocca, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida and S. Yukimoto, 2020: Prediction of the quasi-biennial oscillation with a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models. QJRMS, 1–22. doi:10.1002/qj.3919

2019

Borchert, L. F., H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr, N.-C. Neddermann, L. Suarez-Gutierrez, W. A. Müller, 2019: Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14042-14051. doi:10.1029/2019GL085385
Feldmann, H., J. G. Pinto, N. Laube, M. Uhlig, J. Momken,A. Pasternack, B. Früh, H. Pohlmann, C. Kottmeier, 2019: Skill and added value of the Miklip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 71, 1-19, doi:10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678
Mauritsen, T., J. Bader, T. Becker, J. Behrens, M. Bittner, R. Brokopf, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, M. Esch, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, D. Fläschner, V. Gayler, M. Giorgetta, D. S. Goll, H. Haak, S. Hagemann, C. Hedemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Ilyina, T. Jahns, D. J. de la Cuesta Otero, J. Jungclaus, T. Kleinen, S. Kloster, D. Kracher, S. Kinne, D. Kleberg, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, B. Möbis, W. A. Müller, J. E. M. S. Nabel, C. C. W. Nam, D. Notz, S.-S. Nyawira, H. Paulsen, K. Peters, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann, J. Pongratz, M. Popp, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, R. Redler, C. Reick, T. Rohrschneider, V. Schemann, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. D. Six, L. Stein, I. Stemmler, B Stevens, J.-S. von Storch, F. Tian, A. Voigt, P. de Vrese, K.-H. Wieners, S. Wilkenskjeld, A. Winkler and E. Roeckner, 2019: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing CO2. JAMES, 11, 998-1038, doi:10.1029/2018MS001400
Paeth, H., J. Li, F. Pollinger, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, H. Feldmann, H.-J. Panitz, 2018: An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions. Clim. Dyn., 52, 1343-1357. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4195-2
Paxian, A., M. Ziese, F. Kreienkamp, K. Pankatz, S. Brand, A. Pasternack, H. Pohlmann, K. Modali, and B. Früh, 2018: User-oriented global predictions of the GPCC drought index for the next decade. Met. Zeitschrift, 28, 3-21. doi:10.1127/metz/2018/0912
Pohlmann, H., W. A. Müller, M. Bittner, S. Hettrich, K. Modali, K. Pankatz, J. Marotzke, 2019: Realistic quasi-biennial oscillation variability in historical and decadal hindcast simulations using CMIP6 forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14118-14125 doi:10.1029/2019GL084878
Schuster , M., J. Grieger, A. Richling, T. Schartner, S. Illing, C. Kadow, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Pfahl, and U. Ulbrich, 2019: Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the northern hemisphere extra-tropical winter circulation through increased model resolution. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 901-917, doi:10.5194/esd-2019-18
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager and X. Yang, 2019: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions. Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 13. doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y

2018

Brune, S., A. Düsterhus, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr, 2018: Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts. Clim. Dyn., 51, 1947-1970. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3991-4
Bunzel, F., W. A. Müller, T. Stacke, S. Hagemann, M. Dobrynin, J. Baehr, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, 2018: Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204
Butchart, N., J. A. Anstey, K. Hamilton, S. Osprey, C. McLandress, A. C. Bushell, Y. Kawatani, Y.-H. Kim, F. Lott, J. Scinocca, T. N. Stockdale, M. Andrews, O. Bellprat, P. Braesicke, C. Cagnazzo, C.-C. Chen, H.-Y. Chun, M. Dobrynin, R. R. Garcia, J. Garcia-Serrano, L. J. Gray, L. Holt, T. Kerzenmacher, H. Naoe, H. Pohlmann, J. H. Richter, A. A. Scaife, V. Schenzinger, F. Serva, S. Versick, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida, and S. Yukimoto, 2018: Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009-1032, doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-18
Dobrynin, M., D. I. V. Domeisen, W. A. Müller, L. Bell, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, A. Düsterhus, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr, 2018: Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3605-3614. doi:10.1002/2018GL077029
Illing, S., C. Kadow, H. Pohlmann, C. Timmreck, 2018: Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions. Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701-715, doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018
Kröger, J., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, J. Marotzke, J. Baehr, A. Köhl, K. Modali, I. Polkova, D. Stammer, F. S. E. Vamborg, W. A. Müller, 2018: Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., 51, 2593-2608. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1
Müller, W. A., J. H. Jungclaus, T. Mauritzen, J. Baehr, M. Bittner, R. Budich, F. Bunzel, M. Esch, R. Ghosh, H. Haak, T. Ilyina, T. Kleine, L. Kornblueh, H. Li, K. Modali, D. Notz, H. Pohlmann, E. Roeckner, I. Stemmler, F. Tian, J. Marotzke, 2018: A higher-resolved version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR). JAMES, 10, 1383–1413, doi:10.1029/2017MS001217
Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang and S. Yeager, 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5ºC. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11895-11903, doi:10.1029/2018GL079362

2017

Müller, V., H. Pohlmann, A. Düsterhus, D. Matei, J. Marotzke, W. A. Müller, M. Zeller, J. Baehr, 2017: Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Clim. Dyn., 49, 2975-2990. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
Pohlmann, H., J. Kröger, R. J. Greatbatch, W. A. Müller, 2017: Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Clim. Dyn., 49, 2685-2693. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8

2016

Kadow, C., S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch, 2016: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Met. Zeitschrift, 25, 631-643. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639
Kruschke, T., H. W. Rust, C. Kadow, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, 2016: Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Met. Zeitschrift, 25, 721-738. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641
Marotzke, J., W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich,C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese, 2016: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 2379-2394. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1
Mohino, E., N. Keenlyside., H. Pohlmann, 2016: Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? Clim. Dyn., 47, 3593-3612. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
Pattatanús-Ábrahám, M., C. Kadow, S. Illing,W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, W. Steinbrecht, 2016: Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data. Met Zeitschrift, 25, 709-720. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0803
Sienz, F., W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, 2016: Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Met. Zeitschrift, 25, 645-655. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0670
Timmreck, C., H. Pohlmann, S. Illing, C. Kadow, 2016: The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 834-842. doi:10.1002/2015GL067431

2015

Baehr, J., K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. I. V. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. A. Müller, 2015: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn., 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, S. Gualdi, P. J. Athanasiadis, M. Caian, C. Cassou, E. Fernandez, A. Germe, J. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Salas y Melia, E. Sanchez, D. Smith, L. Terray, K. Wyser, S. Yang, 2015: An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Clim. Dyn., 44, 2787-2806. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y
Corti, S., T. Palmer, M. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, S. Drijfhout, N. Dunstone, W. Hazeleger, J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, J.-S. von Storch, B. Wouters, 2015: Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. J. Climate, 28, 4454-4470. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1

2014

Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, G. Boer, R. Burgman, G. Branstator, C. Cassou, S. Corti, G. Danabasoglu, F. Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins, A. Karspeck, M. Kimoto, A. Kumar, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, A. Navarra, H. Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, E. Schneider, D. Smith, R. Sutton, H. Teng, G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, S. Yeager, 2014: Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 243-267. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2100-2107. doi:10.1002/2014GL059259
Scaife, A. A., M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith., T. Stockdale, A. Williams, 2014: Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1752-1758. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160
Smith, D. M., N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, L. Hermanson, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, N. Robinson, A. A. Scaife, 2014: Comments on “Multi-year Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and limitations.” J. Climate, 27, 487-489. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1

2013

Hazeleger, W., B. Wouters, G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. Corti, T. Palmer, D. Smith, N. Dunstone, J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, J.-S. von Storch, 2013: Predicting multi-year North Atlantic Ocean variability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 1087-1098. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20117
Pohlmann, H., W. A. Müller, K. Kulkarni, M. Kameswarrao, D. Matei, F. S. E. Vamborg, C. Kadow, S. Illing, J. Marotzke, 2013: Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5798-5802. doi:10.1002/2013GL058051
Pohlmann, H., D. M. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim. Dyn., 41, 775-785. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, H. Pohlmann, 2013: A comparison of anomaly and full field initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn., 41, 3325-3338. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C. K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, K. Wyser, 2013: Real-time multi-model decadal predictions. Clim. Dyn, 41, 2875-2888. doi:10.1007/s00382-1600-0

2012

Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, W. Müller, H. Haak, J. Marotzke, 2012: Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J. Climate, 25, 8502-8523. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1
Müller, W. A., J. Baehr, H. Haak, J. H. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, D. Notz, H. Pohlmann, J.-S. von Storch, J. Marotzke, 2012: Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22707. doi:10.1029/2012GL053326

2011

Hawkins, E., R. S. Smith, L. C. Allison, J. M. Gregory, T. J. Woolings, H. Pohlmann, B. de Cuevas, 2011: Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10605. doi:10.1029/2011GL047208
Hawkins, E., R. S. Smith, L. C. Allison, J. M. Gregory, T. J. Woolings, H. Pohlmann, B. de Cuevas, 2011: Correction to "Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport". Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16699. doi:10.1029/2011GL048997

2010

Hurrell, J. W., T. Delworth, G. Danabasoglu, H. Drange, K. Drinkwater, S. Griffies, N. Holbrook, B. Kirtman, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, J. Murphy, G. A. Meehl, T. Palmer, H. Pohlmann, T. Rosati, R. Seager, D. Smith, R. Sutton, A. Timmermann, K. E. Trenberth, J. Tribbia, M. Visbeck, 2010: "Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities And Challenges" in Proceedings of OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, J. Hall, D. E. Harrison, and D. Stammer, Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306. doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.45
Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, W. Müller, H. Haak, J. Jungclaus, J. Marotzke, 2010: "Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction" in Proceedings of OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Annex), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, J. Hall, D. E. Harrison, and D. Stammer, Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306. doi:10.5270/OceanObs09
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, N. J. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, A. Scaife, 2010: Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci., 3, 846-849. doi:10.1038/ngeo1004

2009

Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, J. Marotzke, 2009: Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 3926-3938. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1

2007

Latif, M., C. W. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, F. Alvarez-Garcia, N. Keenlyside, H. Pohlmann, 2007: Decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic MOC: mechanisms and predictability. AGU Geophysical Monograph 173 "Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts - Past and Future Changes of Meridional Overturning", A. Schmittner, J. Chiang, and S. Hemming (Eds.), American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 149-166. ISBN: 978-0-87590-438-2

2006

Collins, M., M. Botzet, A. Carril, H. Drange, A. Jouzeau, M. Latif, O. H. Otteraa, H. Pohlmann, A. Sorteberg, R. Sutton, L. Terray, 2006: Interannual to decadal climate predictability: A multimodel-ensemble study. J. Climate, 19, 1195-1203. doi:10.1175/JCLI3654.1
Latif, M., M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, N. Keenlyside, 2006: A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J. Climate, 19, 5971-5987. doi:10.1175/JCLI3945.1
Latif, M., H. Pohlmann, W. Park, 2006: Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In "Predictability of Weather and Climate", T. N. Palmer and R. Hagedorn (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, 343-364
Pohlmann, H., R. J. Greatbatch, 2006: Discontinuities in the late 1960's in different atmospheric data products. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22803. doi:10.1029/2006GL027644
Pohlmann, H., F. Sienz, M. Latif, 2006: Influence of the multidecadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability on European climate. J. Climate, 19, 6062-6067. doi:10.1175/JCLI3941.1

2005

Pohlmann, H., M. Latif, 2005: Atlantic versus Indo-Pacific influence on Atlantic-European climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05707. doi:10.1029/2004GL021316

2004

Pohlmann, H., M. Botzet, M. Latif, A. Roesch, M. Wild, P. Tschuck, 2004: Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. J. Climate, 17, 4463-4472. doi:10.1175/3209.1
Rodwell, M. J., M. Drévillon, C. Frankignoul, J. W. Hurrell, H. Pohlmann, M. Stendel, R. T. Sutton, 2004: North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Society, 130, 2013-2032. doi:10.1256/qj.03.207

Other publications

2022

Brune, S., B. Meyer, V. Koul, H. Pohlmann, A. Düsterhus, J. Baehr, 2022: What can the last century teach us about climate models?EGU, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5377
Früh, B., R. Potthast, W. Müller, P. Korn, S. Brienen, K. Fröhlich, J. Helmert, M. Köhler, S. Lorenz, T. v. Pham, H. Pohlmann, L. Schlemmer, R. Schnur, J.-P. Schulz, C. Sgoff, B. Vogel, R. Wirth, G. Zängl, 2022: ICON-Seamles, the development of a novel earth system model based on ICON from time scales from weather to climate. doi:10.5194/ems2022-292
Kröger, J., H. Pohlmann, 2022: SOLCHECK MPI-M MPI-ESM1-2-HR CMIP6 historical simulation with low-pass filtered solar and ozone variability. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. doi:1026050/WDCC/SOLCHECK_MPI-ESM-HR_C6_lowpass
Leps, N., B. Früh, H. Pohlmann, 2022: Klima- und Umweltberatung trägt zum 6. Sachstandsbericht des Weltklimarates bei. Mitarbeiterzeitung (MAZ) des DWD
Potthast, R., W. Müller, B. Früh, P. Korn, S. Brienen, K. Fröhlich, J. Helmert, M. Köhler, S. Lorenz, T. van Pham, H. Pohlmann, L. Schlemmer, R. Schnur, J.-P. Schulz, C. Sgoff, B. Vogel, R. Wirth, G. Zängl, 2022: ICON-seamless: die Entwicklung eines neuen Erdsystemmodells basierend auf ICON für alle Zeitskalen, von Wettervorhersagen bis Klimaprognosen. DACH, doi:10.5194/dach2022-28

2021

Brune, S., V. Koul, D. M. Nielsen, L. Hövel, H. Pohlmann, A. Düsterhus, J. Baehr, 2021: A large ensemble decadal prediction system with MPI-ESM. EGU, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9263
Düsterhus, A., L. Borchert, V. Koul, H. Pohlmann, S. Brune, 2021: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 20th century. EGU, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12580
Linardakis, L., J.-O. Beismann, H. Pohlmann, 2021: The ICON-O performance on the DWD NEC Aurora machine.
Lorenz, S., J. Jungclaus, H. Schmidt, H. Haak, C. Reick, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., T. Ilyina, 2021: MPI-M ICON-ESM-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6433
Lorenz, S., J. Jungclaus, H. Schmidt, H. Haak, C. Reick, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., T. Ilyina, 2021: MPI-M ICON-ESM-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6593
Lorenz, S., J. Jungclaus, H. Schmidt, H. Haak, C. Reick, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., T. Ilyina, 2021: MPI-M ICON-ESM-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP abrupt-4xCO2. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6457
Lorenz, S., J. Jungclaus, H. Schmidt, H. Haak, C. Reick, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., T. Ilyina, 2021: MPI-M ICON-ESM-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl.doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6673
Pohlmann, H., 2021: Metadata for 'SOLCHECK MPI-M MPI-ESM1-2-HR CMIP6 historical simulation without solar and ozone variability'. doi:10.26050/WDCC/SOLCHECK_MPI-ESM-HR_C6_hist

2020

Pohlmann, H., M. Schupfner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR amip_r1i1p1f1 RCM-forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_AMIP-HR_r1
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR amip_r2i1p1f1 and amip_r3i1p1f1 RCM-forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_AMIP-HR
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp245 - RCM forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP245-HR
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp126_r1i1p1f1 - RCM forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP126-HR_r1i1p1f1
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp370 - RCM forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP370-HR
Steger, C., M. Schupfner, K.-H. Wieners, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp126_r2i1p1f1 - RCM forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP126-HR_r2i1p1f1
Steger, C., M. Schupfner, K.-H. Wieners, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2020: CMIP6 CMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp585_r2i1p1f1 - RCM forcing data. doi:10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP585-HR_r2i1p1f1

2019

Brovkin, V., K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 C4MIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.748
Fiedler, S., B. Stevens, K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 RFMIP piClim-control. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6662
Fiedler, S., B. Stevens, K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, C. Reick, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 RFMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.784
Haak, H., J. Jungclaus, M. Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 FAFMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.774
Jungclaus, J., Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.741
Jungclaus, J., U. Mikolajewicz, M.-L. Kapsch, R. D'Agostino, K.-H. Wieners, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 PMIP.doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.787
Jungclaus, J., M. Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6594
Jungclaus, J., M. Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP amip. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6463
Jungclaus, J., M. Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, M. Schupfner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6674
Müller, W., T. Ilyina, H. Li, C. Timmreck, V. Gayler, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.15016
Niemeier, U., K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 GeoMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.751
Niemeier, U., K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 GeoMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.15294
Pohlmann, H., W. Müller, K. Modali, K. Pankatz, M. Bittner, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.768
Pongratz, J., K. Hartung, K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 LUMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.772
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, C. Steger, M. Bittner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2450
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, C. Steger, M. Bittner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585.doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4403
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, C. Steger, M. Bittner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4398
Schupfner, M., K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, C. Steger, M. Bittner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp126. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4397
Steger, C., M. Schupfner, K.-H. Wieners, F. Wachsmann, M. Bittner, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: DWD MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1869
Stracke, T., K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.760
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6595
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.742
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.793
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6705
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6693
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp126. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6690
Wieners, K.-H., M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2019:MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6675

2017

von Storch, J.-S., D. Putrasahan, K. Lohmann, O. Gutjahr, J. Jungclaus, ..., H. Pohlmann, E. Roeckner, 2017: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.762
von Storch, J.-S. D. Putrasahan, K. Lohmann, O. Gutjahr, J. Jungclaus, ..., H. Pohlmann, ..., E. Roeckner, 2017: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-XR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP. doi:10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10290

2015

Böttinger, M., H. Pohlmann, N. Röber, K. Meier-Fleischer, D. Spickermann, 2015: Visualization of 2D uncertainty in decadal climate prediction. In "Workshop on Visualisation in Environmental Sciences (EnvirVis)", A. Middel, K. Rink and G. H. Weber (Eds.), The Eurographics Association. doi:10.2312/envirvis.20151083

2014

Smith, D., H. Pohlmann, R. Eade, 2014: HadCM3 model output prepared for CMIP5 historical, served by ESGF. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MOC3hi
Smith, D., H. Pohlmann, R. Eade, 2014: HadCM3 model output prepared for CMIP5 decadal experiments, served by ESGF. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MOC3DEC
Smith, D., H. Pohlmann, R. Eade, 2014: HadCM3 model output prepared for CMIP5 RCP4.5, served by ESGF. doi:10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MOC3r4

2012

Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, S. Gualdi, P. Athanasiadis, M. Caian, C. Cassou, A. Germe, J. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Salas y Melia, E. Sanchez, D. Smith, L. Terray, K. Wyser, 2012: An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions performed within the framework of the COMBINE project. COMBINE Technical Report No. 2

2011

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., G. J. van Oldenborgh, J. Garcia-Serrano, H. Pohlmann, A. A. Scaife, D. Smith, 2011: CMIP5 near-term climate predictions. CLIVAR Exchanges, 56, 8-11

2010

Brander, K. M., U. Daewel, K. F. Drinkwater, G. Engelhard, A. Flin, M. Lindgren, B. R. MacKenzie, I. Mantzouni, P. Munk, G. Ottersen, H. Pohlmann, B. Rothschild, C. Schrum, J. E. Stiansen, S. Sundby, K. U. Wieland, 2010: Cod and future climate change. ICES Cooperative Research Report, 305, 88pp. ISBN: 978-87-7482-084-0
Murphy, J., V. Kattsov, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, G. Meehl, V. Mehta, H. Pohlmann, A. Scaife, D. Smith, 2010: Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 1, 287-304, ISSN 1878-0296. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.018

2004

Latif, M., M. Collins, R. J. Stouffer, H. Pohlmann, N. Keenlyside, 2004: The physical basis for prediction of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. CLIVAR Exchanges, 31, 6-8
Pohlmann, H., N. Keenlyside, 2004: Review: Decadal-multidecadal climate predictability. Students Contest of the CRCES-IPRC Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability, Hawaii, USA

2003

Collins, M., A. Carril, H. Drange, H. Pohlmann, R. Sutton, L. Terray, 2003: North Atlantic decadal predictability. CLIVAR Exchanges, 28, 6-7

2002

Latif, M., E. Roeckner, M. Botzet, M. Esch, H. Haak, S. Hagemann, J. Jungclaus, S. Legutke, H. Pohlmann, S. Marsland, U. Mikolajewicz, 2002: Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability of Weather and Climate, 265-273

2000

Pohlmann, H., M. Harder, T. Martin, P. Lemke, 2000: Comparison of two sea ice simulations forced with ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses data. Proceedings of the Second WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses, 229-232, WCRP-109, WMO/TD-NO 985

Curriculum vitae

Research Experience

since 2019	Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
since 2019	Guest scientist University of Hamburg, Germany
since 2011	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2007 - 2011	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
2006 - 2007	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2005 - 2006	Institute of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada

Ph.D.

2000 - 2005	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2005	Ph.D. in Natural Sciences, Hamburg University, Germany

University

1993 - 2000	Meteorology, Kiel University, Germany
2000	Diploma in Meteorology, Kiel University, Germany

Awards and Nominations

2016-2019	CLIVAR Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability
2019-2021	WCRP Grand Challenge of Near-Term Climate Prediction

Past Projects

MiKlip	Medium-term Climate Prediction (BMBF)
SPECS	Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Services (EU FP7)
ENSEMBLES	Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact (EU FP7)
COMBINE	Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection (EU FP7)
THOR	Thermohaline Overturning Circulation at Risk? (EU FP7)
Nordatlantik	Der Nordatlantik als Teil des Erdsystems (BMBF)
Canadian CLIVAR	Canadian CLIVAR Research Network
PREDICATE	Mechanism and Predictability of Decadal Fluctuations in Atlantic-European Climate (EU)
DEKLIM	Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm (BMBF)
SEALION	Sea Ice in the Antarctic linked with Ocean-Atmosphere Forcing (EU)