Group Leader


The mission of the Decadal Climate Prediction Group is the development and evaluation of a pre-operational ensemble prediction system for near-term climate forecasts. The development of the global prediction system is the centrepiece of the BMBF-funded project MiKlip, which aims at the operationalisation of the decadal predictions. The scientific focus is on the continuous improvement of the forecast skill of the global prediction system, based on MPI-ESM, and on the enhancement of understanding the origin of the forecast skill. A specific target has been the increase of model resolution for the next generation of prediction systems. This has been achieved together with the coupled model steering group (CMSG). We further emphasize the improvement of forecast skill by better initialisation and a posteriori bias correction methods, and the assessment and understanding of forecast skill for the European summer climate. On an international level, the group contributes to the CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments organized by the WCRP Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (DCPP) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction (GC-NTCP). The group further participate in the CLIVAR Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability working group (DCVP). The group also develops the seasonal prediction system led by Prof. Johanna Baehr (Institute for Marine Science, University of Hamburg).

MiKlip Projects

  • A Flexible Forecast System for Decadal Climate Predictions (FlexforDec,  J. Marotzke, W. Müller, MPI-M)
  • Prediction of Multi-year Droughts (DroughtClip, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz)