Separating forced from chaotic climate variability: From last millennium temperatures to recent precipitation change

Separating changes in climate due to external drivers from those that  occur spontaneously is difficult if the response to forcing is small  compared to variability generated within the climate system. This is the  case both for temperature changes over a lot of the last millennium, and  for recent precipitation changes. Nevertheless, the CMIP5 and PMIP  modeling efforts provide fingerprints for forced change that can help  identify the forced component in observations or reconstructions.  Results evaluate the climate model ability to simulate both internal  variability and long-term change.




13:30 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Gabriele Hegerl, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK


Jochem Marotzke

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