KlimaCampus Kolloquium: Linking the dynamics and predictability of extreme weather in a changing climate

Extreme events such as e.g. heatwaves and precipitation extremes can have devastating consequences for society and ecosystems. Furthermore, many extremes tend to become more frequent under climate change, and are therefore crucial to better understand and predict. Despite the importance of anticipating such extremes, it remains challenging to predict them, especially on timescales of days to weeks, a crucial planning timescale. However, the analysis of the predictability of extreme events and their evolution in a changing climate does not only yield benefits for emergency management, but it also provides insights into the origins and the dynamics of these events. Extremes can be caused by a range of localized and remote dynamical mechanisms from local to global scales, including links established by remote connections between the tropics, midlatitudes, the polar regions, as well as the Earth’s land and ocean surface and the upper atmosphere. These dynamical mechanisms within the Earth system can be understood through a broad hierarchy of methods and models. An improved understanding of extremes can then feed back towards an improved prediction of extremes, which in turn helps to protect lives and livelihoods. This presentation provides an overview of the current state of extreme event predictability on a range of timescales in a changing climate, while linking to the dynamical origins of extreme weather.




15:15 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Daniela Domeisen, ETH Zurich


Jochem Marotzke

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