Joint Seminar: Regional temperature variability is projected to emerge from its natural range

Global warming is expected to not only impact mean temperatures but also temperature variability, substantially altering climate extremes. In this seminar I show that human-caused changes in internal year-to-year temperature variability are expected to emerge from the unforced range by the end of the 21st century across climate model initial-condition large ensembles. Different simulated changes in globally averaged temperature variability result from a trade-off between strong increases in variability on tropical land and substantial decreases in high latitudes, both robust across almost all models. This latitudinal pattern of temperature variability change is explained by loss of sea ice in high latitudes and changes in vegetation cover in the tropics. Instrumental records are broadly in line with this emerging pattern, but have data gaps in key regions. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions support the simulated magnitude and distribution of temperature variability. The findings strengthen the need for urgent mitigation to avoid unprecedented changes in temperature variability.




15:15–16:15 h


Virtual Seminar


Dirk Olonscheck


Dian Putrasahan

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