Joint Seminar: Balance models for tropical cyclone intensification and their limitations

Forecasting the evolution of tropical cyclone intensity, especially rapid intensification or rapid decay, continues to be a challenge. Addressing this challenge calls for, at least in part, an improved understanding of the physical processes involved in the evolution of these storms. One of the basic theories for vortex evolution rests on balance dynamics. A scale analysis of the axisymmetric equations of motion for a tropical cyclone suggests that, to zero order, the flow above the frictional boundary layer is in gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance, implying also thermal wind balance. Under these circumstances one can develop a prognostic model for vortex evolution, subject to a specified distribution of diabatic heating and friction. In this talk I will explore aspects of tropical cyclone intensification based on such a model. While the balance theory is useful from a pedagogical perspective, it has intrinsic limitations that I will highlight.




13:30 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Roger Smith


Arjun Kumar

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