Joint Seminar: Biogeochemical predictions - what happens in Bergen?

Interannual to decadal predictions of ocean biogeochemistry, such as primary productivity and CO2 uptake, would be helpful for understanding the changing marine environment and global climate. Here I present the ongoing work on biogeochemical predictions in Bergen and at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, and the implementation of a biogeochemical module in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM). I will show the results of idealized twin experiments where we investigate i) the role of biogeochemical tracer's initial conditions on their predictability, ii) the physical mechanisms behind interannual to decadal predictions of ocean carbon uptake and export production, and iii) the effect of assimilation of SST on reconstructing past biogeochemical variability. Our results suggest, among other things, that initialization of biogeochemistry through e.g. assimilation do not significantly improve interannual to decadal predictions, which we relate to the strong control ocean physics exerts on the biogeochemical variability on these time scales. The predictability of ocean CO2 uptake generally agrees well with the predictability of the mixed layer depth (MLD), suggesting that the predictable signal comes from the exchange of DIC with deep-waters.




13:30 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen


Tatiana Ilyina

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