Joint Seminar: Changes in tropical Atlantic precipitation variability under global warming in large ensembles

Precipitation changes in response to global warming are in the focus of research because they affect the regional availability of water and the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and floods. There are large regional differences in projected changes of the mean precipitation with increasing precipitation in the tropics and decreasing precipitation in the mid-latitudes.

Regionally, the importance of changes in the long-term mean precipitation might be surpassed by changes in the variability. Understanding the changes in variability that arise from the external forcing and differentiating these forced changes from internal variability is crucial.

In this talk I will present the response of tropical Atlantic precipitation variability in boreal summer to global warming. The analysis is based on two large ensembles of model simulations with the MPI-ESM for the historical period and a strong warming scenario. For certain modes of variability, we find a northward shift of the variability, which is not related to an ITCZ-shift in the mean state. A common finding for all modes is that the probability distributions of the explained variance change in response to strong external forcing.




15:15 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Sebastian Milinski, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie


Karsten Peters
Guidi Zhou

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