KlimaCampus Kolloquium: Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

Our confidence in the atmospheric circulation response to climate change is much lower than for thermodynamic aspects of climate, yet circulation exerts a strong control on regional aspects of climate change, including weather-related extremes such as drought and flooding. Two major sources of uncertainty are the apparently strong nonlinearity (i.e. state dependence) of the circulation response to external forcings, reflected in the divergence of model projections of circulation-related fields (including precipitation) in many regions, and low-frequency chaotic variability. There are good reasons to believe that these two issues are related.


Reference: Opens external link in current windowhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n10/full/ngeo2253.html




15:15 h


Bundesstr. 53, room 022/023
Seminar Room 022/023, Ground Floor, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Hamburg


Ted Shepherd, University of Reading, UK


Elisa Manzini

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