MiKlip is a Opens external link in current windowBMBF funded project on decadal climate prediction coordinated at the MPI-M. The project involves 35 subprojects spread across 22 German research institutions.

The ultimate aim of MiKlip is to foster basic research on decadal climate prediction and  to develop an operational ensemble decadal prediction system with the Earth System Model of the MPI-M (MPI-ESM) and regional climate models. The development of the actual prediction system of the global model is based at the MPI-M, within the FLEXFORDEC project. During the first development stage decadal prediction simulations follow the CMIP5 project. These simulations form the so-called baseline system version 1. In a next step decadal prediction simulations are successively improved according the outcomes of the MiKlip projects. Decadal predictions into the future using a decadal prediction system would produce information such as shown in Figure 1.

This figure shows the prediction of surface temperature in the subpolar gyre region for the coming decade as simulated with the baseline system version 1. From analysing hindcasts simulated with the baseline system, we already know that, even though this region shows robust results, the system also contains major drawbacks in terms of e.g. initialization and perturbation, which influences the reliability of such a prediction, particular over the land areas where the utility would be large.

The challenge of MiKlip is now to overcome these drawbacks to further increase the performance and the reliability of a global prediction system, but also on the regional scale. The research questions studied within the MiKlip project can be roughly grouped into four major challenges: the initialization and ensemble generation of decadal forecasts, the increased understanding of the processes that may be important for decadal climate predictability, the regionalization of decadal predictions and the evaluation and validation of decadal forecasts.

The four areas mentioned above are all represented at the MPI-M by projects either hosted or co-hosted at the institute. Ensemble and assimilation techniques for improved initialization will be developed within the AODA-PENG project and the initialization of the land-surface will be tackled by the project PaSTLand. Two projects; REDCLIP and DEPARTURE, consider the regional aspects of decadal climate predictions. Three projects deal with enhanced process-understanding: LiCOS investigates the cloud- and aerosol processes that might affect predictability, ALARM is developing a volcano module and analyses the impact of volcanoes on decadal forecasts and MultiClip investigates key processes for decadal prediction by analyzing long climate simulations. On the evaluation side there is DroughtClip that develops drought indices that will be used for assessing the skill of decadal drought forecasting.

The results of these projects will be synthesized by the project FLEXFORDEC at the MPI-M, which is in charge of developing the decadal prediction system and the project INTEGRATION at FU Berlin, which will develop a standardized evaluation system.

For more information on MiKlip and its different subprojects visit the Opens external link in current windowproject website

MiKlip Projects at the MPI-M

  • A Flexible Forecast System for Decadal Climate Predictions (FlexforDec, J. Marotzke, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, J. Kröger, K. Modali, MPI-M)
  • Optimum parameter and state estimation of the land and biosphere (PastLand II, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, MPI-M)
  • Volcano module for the decadal prediction system (ALARM-II, C. Timmreck, H. Schmidt, MPI-M; K. Krüger, Uni Oslo)
  • Mechanisms of inter- to multidecadal variability and their implications for climate predictions  (MOVIECLIP, J. Jungclaus, D. Matei, J. Bader, Ralf Hand, MPI-M)
  • PRedictability of the Oceanic Carbon UPtake (PROCUP, T. Ilyina, H. Li, MPI-M)
  • Prediction of Multi-year Droughts (DroughtClip, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, MPI-M)
  • Calibration of probabilistic decadal climate forecasts (CALIBRATION, U. Ulbrich, H. Rust, A. Pasternack, FU Berlin; W. Müller, MPI-M, M. Liniger, J. Bhend, Meteoswiss)

The coordination of the MiKlip project is organised by the MiKlip Office (S. Hettrich, MPI-M)  Opens window for sending emailmail