Relative change of temperature compared to 1989-2005

For the three RCP scenarios, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, the mean temperature change (as compared to 1986-2005) shows similar heating patterns, though each to a different extent. The strongest temperature change is simulated for the Arctic. Generally, the temperature increase is more pronounced over land than over the oceans, as water doesn’t heat as quickly and works as a balancing (cooling) agent. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the global mean temperature increase is about 4 degrees by the year 2100 compared to 1989-2005 (thus about 4.8 degrees compared to the preindustrial level). In the Arctic, warming reaches values of far more than 10 degrees. For the RCP2.6 scenario, however, the model simulates a mean global warming well below the 2-degree target (less than 2 degree compared to the preindustrial level).

Scenario: RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6
Simulation period: 1975-2100
Model: Earth system model MPI-ESM
Resolution: LR 1 (ensemble mean)