Sea level rise

Regional differences in sea level changes are caused by changes in ocean circulation and the hydrological cycle (precipitation minus evaporation). Thus, for the 21st century, the sea level changes are relatively small in the high southern latitudes, whereas the sea level in the Arctic rises more than twice as much as the global mean due to increased freshwater inflow. Shifts in the ocean circulation also result in irregular rise in sea level compared to the global mean, for example in the Atlantic.

In the RCP8.5 simulation, the global mean sea level is expected to rise by nearly 40 cm by 2100 due to an increase in water temperatures. Regionally however, the projections show sea level rises of over 1 m. For the RCP2.6 scenario on the other hand, the simulation shows that water temperature increases contribute to a global mean rise of fewer than 20 cm by 2100.