Geo-and Climate Science (Summary)

The hiatus in global temperature trends: No systematic error in climate models


Marotzke, Jochem


The Ocean in the Earth System (Jochem Marotzke)


Observations suggest a hiatus in global surface temperature since 1998, whereas most climate models simulate continued warming. What causes this difference? Do climate models respond too sensitively to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations such as that of CO2, and thus overestimate climate change systematically? Or has the discrepancy arisen by chance? A study just published by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) gives a clear answer: There is no evidence for systematic model error.


1. Marotzke, J.; Forster, P. M.

Forcing, feedback, and internal variability in global temperature trends

Nature 517, 565-570 (2015)
DOI: 10.1038/nature14117