Max Planck Institute for Meteorology: A Journey Through the Reception History of a Key Oceanographic Publication

In 1961, oceanographer Henry Stommel laid the foundation for understanding thermohaline circulation. In a current special collection of the journal Tellus, MPI-M Director Jochem Marotzke revisits Stommel’s work. He shows how the publication became famous—and why it is rightly considered one of the most important works in oceanography.

Long before the term 'tipping point' was coined, American oceanographer Henry Stommel discovered that ocean circulation driven by differences in temperature and salinity can exhibit multiple equilibria. He also demonstrated that relatively small perturbations can trigger abrupt transitions between these states. Stommel’s groundbreaking work, which he published in the journal Tellus in 1961, underpins much—if not all—of today’s research on the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

In a contribution to a special collection of the recently relaunched Tellus, Jochem Marotzke, an oceanographer and director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), revisits Stommel’s work 65 years after it was first published. Marotzke highlights the strength and finesse of Stommel’s work and analyzes the history of its reception—from its slow start to its lasting legacy.

“The history of Stommel (1961) is particularly dear to me, because this paper ultimately was the one that started my own research career”, Marotzke says. “Its reception shows how circuitous the flow of scientific ideas can be. The paper now rightfully counts as one of his—and thus the field’s—most important ever.”

Model of two connected vessels. — Stommel’s original box model as presented in Stommel 1961, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v13i2.9491 (CC BY).

First clue to tipping point

Henry Stommel in an office with lots of documents in the background. — Henry Stommel, 1979. Credit: NOAA

In his work, Stommel used a simple box model with two water vessels that are connected by pipes at the top and bottom. He investigated the circulation that arises when the salinity and temperature of the water in the vessels differ, with one vessel corresponding to the polar ocean and the other to the equatorial ocean. Stommel showed that this system has two stable equilibria, each with opposite flow directions, as well as one unstable equilibrium. The latter is often referred to today as a tipping point.

The work was initially viewed primarily as a theoretical contribution and was cited only eight times in the first 25 years. Interest in the topic grew substantially in the mid-1980s, when it was demonstrated that multiple equilibria also occur in more realistic Ocean General Circulation Models. Today, Stommel’s paper is regarded as seminal—due to the groundbreaking idea it introduced and due to its conceptual simplicity. According to Marotzke, Stommel’s box model proves to be a “superb teaching tool for dynamical systems”. The MPI-M director speculates that the author’s fame may also have played a role in the paper’s enduring success: Henry Stommel made other highly respected contributions, including on the behavior of the Gulf Stream, and is considered one of the most highly regarded oceanographers of the 20th century.

Original publication

Marotzke, J. (2026) ‘Stommel’s 1961 Tellus Paper on Thermohaline Circulation Stability: Curious Early History and Lasting Legacy’, Tellus, 79(1), p. 126–135. DOI: 10.16993/tellus.4175.

Contact

Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
jochem.marotzke@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

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