High-resolution simulations of Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones

We explore the possibility offered by state-of-the-art high-resolution non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and High Performance Computing (HPC) by simulating small-scale cyclones that have been shown to possess an intrinsic low predictability. 

Mediterranean Tropical-like cyclones are low-pressure systems that occasionally form in the Mediterranean and show tropical features like the presence of a cloud-free eye and spiralling cloud and rain bands. Their formation is enhanced by the presence of relatively warm waters and cold cut-off low. 

In this project we target high-resolution O(100m) simulations of these cyclones to investigate weather the increased resolution enhances their predictability, which is usually limit by poorly resolved convective processes in General Circulation Models (GCM) or Limited Area Models (LAM). 

Results of the simulations

Approaching 300m resolution increases noticeably the model performance in resolving convective processes and allows for a better representation of the cyclone's evolution. The case study of November, 7-8th 2014. was chosen. 

Shown is the animation of cloud water and ice mixing ratios every minute.

Relevant publications

Cioni, G., Cerrai D. and Klocke D.: Investigating the predictability of a Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone using a non-hydrostatic high-resolution model, J. Adv. Earth System Model [submitted, in review]